Washington- The former US President Donald Trump is expected to dominate the political scene in 2024 through his multiple trials and his relentless pursuit to return to the White House in the upcoming November elections.
Trump has not disappeared from the political scene since leaving the White House on January 20, 2021. Instead, he has been a significant player over the past three years, culminating in the excitement around him in 2023 with various criminal charges that relentlessly pursued him, while he completely dominated the primary election scene within the Republican Party.
While America's allies and enemies around the world hold their breath, the world will exceptionally watch the 2024 elections, and Americans will reluctantly go to the polls to elect a president and determine who controls Congress.
Popularity of US President Joe Biden (right) has fallen below 40% (European)
Widespread Disappointment
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be vied for, alongside 34 out of the 100 Senate seats. Governors for 13 states will also be elected.
However, these elections will bring much disappointment to Americans, as close to 70% of them desire a presidential race without Trump and the current president, Joe Biden.
All signs point to an election battle between two senior candidates: Biden (81 years old) and his predecessor, Trump (78 years old). Nothing about these elections will be traditional, especially with the majority of Americans believing neither man possesses the fitness necessary for four years as president and commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.
The competition will result in the victory of either Biden, whose popularity is currently below 40%, or Trump, who Biden views as an existential threat to American democracy.
For his part, Trump still rejects the results of the 2020 elections and faces numerous criminal indictments, insisting that President Biden is old and weak and lacks the mental fitness necessary to deal with America's and the world's problems.
Despite America's population approaching 340 million by the time of the elections, 50,000 voters in 4 or 6 states may determine the fate of the United States. "The Cook Political Report," a service specializing in assessing elections, predicts that states such as Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada will define the identity of the country's next president.
In a usual election cycle, Americans have to wait until the end of the following March or slightly later to determine the likely presidential nominee. However, this time around, the Republican primary could be concluded by the end of February without waiting for the crowning of the party’s nominee at the general Republican convention to be held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in July.
The focus will shift in the subsequent month, August, to Chicago, Illinois, where the Democrats will convene their general meeting to drum up enthusiasm for another four years of Biden's rule. This means that Americans will spend a full 8 months of the general election campaign between candidates unpopular with voters.
Impact of Trials
On the other hand, choosing Milwaukee and Chicago as venues serves as a reminder of the importance of the Midwest and its states in deciding the 2024 elections.
If primary elections are less significant than usual for Trump and Biden, American attention will shift from Trump the candidate to Trump the defendant. His federal trial for attempting to overturn the 2020 elections starts on March 4, just one day before the "Super Tuesday" when 13 states vote in the Republican primaries.
This trial, held in Washington, may affect Trump's focus on the election race and possibly take him off the campaign trail during a pivotal time.
Trump will enter this trial influenced by the primary election results in six states, potentially securing himself as a front-running Republican candidate.
Simultaneously, the first primary in Iowa in mid-January coincides with the start of Trump's legal battles as he faces a New York court against Jean Carrol, who accuses him of raping her over 20 years ago and subsequently tarnishing her image and reputation. This will be followed by other trials in Florida, Georgia, and Washington.
It is unlikely that the federal trials against Trump will conclude by November 5, Election Day, as Trump's legal strategy will likely revolve around delaying and appealing.
As a result, for the first time, America will have a presidential candidate on the ballot accused of committing federal and state-level crimes. Hence, many constitutional law experts have begun to use terms like "unprecedented" and "unknown" to describe the upcoming political developments of 2024.
America and the World in 2024
Excitement and danger will not be absent from America's relationships with the world in 2024. It's difficult to overstate the importance of the 2024 election results for America and the rest of the world, especially with the ongoing crisis of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, and China's threats to Taiwan and its other neighbors.
While a Biden victory would not bring significant changes to America's current foreign policies, a second Trump term could shake Washington's relations with these three crises in ways unimaginable, leading to seismic shifts in its relationships with the rest of the world.
Trump has managed to push the Republican Party to prepare to withdraw funding for Ukraine’s military effort against Russia. European allies fear the prospect of his victory and what it could mean for America's central standing in NATO, not to mention the survival of the alliance itself as a security umbrella for Europe.
Although both parties try to outdo each other in being tough on China, it's unclear whether Trump would commit the American military to defend Taiwan. Moreover, no one knows how he would handle the Middle East conflict file.
Commentator Fareed Zakaria sees the greatest threat to the rules-based international system not from China, Russia, or Iran but from the United States itself. He warns of the negative aftermath of internal US political mechanisms, which could leave the door open for the aforementioned international crises to pave the way for more chaos on the global stage.