Washington- The U.S. National Security Strategies, issued since the tenure of former President Barack Obama, through the administration of Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden, prioritize competing with China as the main challenge to U.S. global dominance. They call for a review of the deployment of U.S. forces around the world, especially in the Middle East, to provide more resources to face increasing Chinese challenges.
Biden’s National Security Strategy, issued in October 2022, emphasizes the need to “reduce the long-term demand for resources imposed by the Middle East on the United States.”
However, in practice, Washington currently retains approximately 45,000 soldiers in the Middle East, and the escalation of tensions with China, the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, and the tensions in the Middle East since the start of Operation Eastern Storm on October 7th last year have not altered the numbers of these forces.
With the escalation of Israeli aggression in Gaza and the increasing risks of regional conflict, as American forces have come under attack in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, in addition to tensions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, at the entrance to the Red Sea, some American commentators warn of the dangers of their country sliding into a greater conflict that could involve some of the tens of thousands of American military personnel stationed throughout the region.
In the Tense Areas
Thousands of American soldiers are deployed in Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and Israel as follows:
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Syria: There are about 900 soldiers conducting counterterrorism operations against ISIS, supported by the “SDF-Free Syrian Army” predominantly made up of Kurdish militias.
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Iraq: Approximately 2500 soldiers are present, with the agreement since July 2021 for the U.S. military presence to shift to a non-combat advisory role, supporting the Iraqi government against ISIS remnants. However, retaliatory U.S. attacks following the attack on Base Tower 22 in Jordan have raised doubts about the future of U.S. forces in Iraq.
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Jordan: Despite the secrecy surrounding the number of U.S. forces in Jordan, some estimates suggest around 2900 soldiers have been present since June 2023, at the request of the Jordanian government, to support Jordan’s operations against ISIS fighters and conduct intelligence missions.
- Israel: There is no authenticated information regarding the number of U.S. forces within Israel, while the U.S. maintains at least one secret military base – codenamed “Site 512” – housing a radar surveillance system capable of detecting and tracking ballistic missile threats.
In Stable Areas
Additionally, thousands of American soldiers are deployed in numerous stable Middle Eastern countries such as:
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Qatar: Hosting approximately 8,000 American soldiers at Al Udeid Base, a critical ally outside of NATO, where the U.S. Central Command regional headquarters is located.
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Bahrain: With over 9,000 soldiers, mainly stationed at a U.S. naval base, serving as headquarters for the U.S. naval forces and the Fifth Fleet, and the Khalifa Bin Salman Port in Bahrain serves as one of the few facilities in the Gulf capable of accommodating U.S. aircraft carriers.
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Kuwait: Hosting nearly 13,500 American soldiers since 1991 when the U.S.-led coalition expelled Iraqi forces during the First Gulf War. These forces are stationed at Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem Air Base.
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Saudi Arabia: Approximately 2,700 American soldiers are present to train the Saudi army, provide advice and assistance against any Iranian threats, and support air and missile defense systems.
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UAE: With 3,500 American soldiers primarily at Al Dhafra Air Base, housing the Gulf Air Warfare Center, a regional hub for air and missile defense training jointly operated by the UAE and the U.S.
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Oman: Hosting a few hundred soldiers primarily from the Air Force stationed in the country.
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Turkey: The U.S. has over 1,000 soldiers in Turkey, as a NATO member, primarily stationed at Incirlik Air Base in the country’s south.
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Egypt: Involving 465 American soldiers in the international peacekeeping forces in the Sinai Peninsula as part of the Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty..
Future of Forces in the Region
Responding to Washington and Baghdad initiating talks that could lead to the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, while some members of Biden’s administration call for the withdrawal of forces from Syria as well, former CENTCOM commander General Kenneth McKenzie argued that “talk of a U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq and Syria harms American interests.”
McKenzie stated in an article for the New York Times that “this move gives Tehran hope that it will succeed in its long-term goal of expelling the United States from the region through its proxy militias,” urging President Biden to make a presidential decision “affirming the steadfast commitment to keeping troops in Syria and an additional precise commitment to working with the Iraqi government to find an acceptable level of forces there.”
A report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies outlined three alternatives for the future of U.S. presence in the Middle East as follows:
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Minimum Threshold Alternative: Involving the withdrawal of nearly all U.S. forces from the Middle East, except for a small force of less than 5,000 soldiers, to address any future threats posing a possible risk to American interests.
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Limited Engagement Alternative: Involving an American military presence of around 20,000 to 30,000 soldiers to deal with a range of U.S. interests linked to monitoring and confronting competitive states in the region like China, Russia, and Iran.
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Strong Engagement Alternative: Encompassing an American presence ranging from 40,000 to 50,000 soldiers to deter Iran and “terrorist threats,” monitor and confront Russian and Chinese activities, and ensure freedom of navigation.
