The Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy firm, has indicated that the American presidential election will constitute the most significant political risk to the globe in 2024, irrespective of the victor. This assertion is based on concerns over the misuse of the institutions of the world's most powerful democracy.
In their annual report published on Monday, the political risk analysis institution emphasized that the November 5, 2024, election would "test the American democracy to an extent not seen in the nation for the past 150 years," alluding to the Civil War.
The report further stated, "The United States is already the most divided and dysfunctional of the world’s advanced industrial democracies. The 2024 elections will likely exacerbate this problem no matter who wins."
Regarding the possible candidates, the report brought attention to the fact that if Donald Trump—the currently most favored Republican candidate—were to lose again to incumbent President Joe Biden, it is likely that the real estate magnate would again allege massive voter fraud and "incite extensive intimidation campaigns" against election officials and workers.
It continued that if Biden were to win a second term, the United States could also face an "unprecedented political crisis" should Trump be incarcerated for any of the numerous legal charges he faces, though widespread violence is not anticipated.
Should Trump reclaim the presidency, the group expects Biden to concede defeat. However, many Democrats would still likely view Trump as illegitimate, with some refusing to acknowledge his victory, citing the Constitution which prohibits anyone who "engages in insurrection" from serving in such a position.
Furthermore, the group projects that Trump would, upon returning to office, potentially employ government institutions to prosecute his opponents and suppress any opposition.
Beyond the domestic implications, the Eurasia Group ranked violence in the Middle East as the second-most significant global risk, with the possibility of war between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) being "only the first stage of a broader conflict in 2024."
Ukraine was identified as the third most significant risk. The report predicts that by 2024, the country will effectively be divided as Kyiv strives to reclaim territories under Russian control.
The group noted that Ukraine would face another significant setback if the United States elected Trump, who has voiced opposition to sending billions of dollars to Kyiv.
