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As the year comes to a close—a year that witnessed severe climate incidents, from wildfires to droughts and destructive floods, with temperatures reaching unprecedented record levels—the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) wrapped up its proceedings in Expo City Dubai, within the oil-rich United Arab Emirates, OPEC’s third-largest crude oil producer. The COP28 agreement acknowledges the necessity for a roadmap aiming to transition away from fossil fuels to avert the worst impacts of climate change. This conclusion came after an additional day of intense negotiations that continued late into the night, centered on whether the final document would call for a “phased reduction” or a “phased withdrawal” from fossil fuels, following initial resistance from oil-producing countries that see the possibility of reducing emissions without completely abandoning fossil fuel sources.
Marking a first in the history of climate summits, this year’s negotiations directly addressed the issue of transitioning from fossil fuels, the primary drivers of global warming on Earth—a key demand from numerous countries. Despite three decades of UN climate talks, this is the first time parties have made such a decisive commitment, although many have warned that the deal still has major flaws. The agreement gained acceptance from 197 countries in addition to the European Union after an earlier draft that omitted references to “phased reduction” or “phased withdrawal” from oil, coal, and gas had sparked anger from many nations. Nonetheless, the final agreement does not explicitly mandate these reductions, giving countries considerable leeway in their transition away from these fossil fuels.
COP28’s agreement does not require the elimination of fossil fuels but calls for specific measures to achieve an energy transition. Among these are:
1. Tripling the global capacity of renewable energy and doubling the global annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.
2. Accelerating efforts to phase down coal-dependent energy.
3. Advancing global efforts toward carbon-free and low-carbon fuel systems, ensuring sufficient use before mid-century.
4. Transitioning from fossil fuel energy systems in a fair, organized, and equitable manner, with increased action within this critical decade to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 in line with science.
5. Accelerating the pace of zero-emission and low-emission technologies, including renewables, nuclear energy, and reduction and removal technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), especially in hard-to-mitigate sectors, and the production of low-carbon hydrogen.
6. Significantly reducing other non-CO2 emissions globally by 2030, particularly methane emissions.
7. Expediting emission reductions from land transport on several fronts, including infrastructure development and rapid deployment of zero and low-emission vehicles.
8. Phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies as soon as possible unless addressing energy poverty or facilitating fair transitions.
Additionally, COP28 achieved a historic milestone on its first working day with the announcement of the Loss and Damage Fund, which successfully collected around 800 million US dollars. This long-awaited fund, announced at last year’s conference in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, is designated to compensate countries most affected by climate change impacts and least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions. Managed by the World Bank, the fund may become operational within less than three months.
The UAE announced the creation of a 30-billion-dollar fund for global climate solutions, aimed at closing the climate finance gap and facilitating affordable access to funds, spurring the collection and investment of 250 billion dollars by 2030. The conference also rallied over 85 billion dollars in support for climate action financing funds in the energy sector, green economy investments, livelihoods, and adaptation.
Commitments were made to renew resources for the Green Climate Fund, with the United States pledging another 3 billion dollars. The World Bank announced an increase of 9 billion dollars annually in climate-related project financing for 2024-2025 during the conference days.
The summit’s early days featured the signing of the “COP28 Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture and Food Systems Resilience and Climate Action,” supported by over 150 countries—the first agreement of its kind in climate conference history. More than 130 countries endorsed COP28’s commitment to triple renewable energy production capacity, and around 135 countries supported the COP28 Declaration on Climate and Health to accelerate actions protecting health from escalating climate impacts.
Despite the significant praise for COP28’s accord for directly shining a light on the real culprits of the climate crisis for the first time, there are concerns about serious gaps that could provide escape routes for the fossil fuel industry. Reliance on unsafe, unproven methods like carbon capture and storage, and nuclear energy is worrisome. Developing countries still reliant on fossil fuels for energy, income, and employment need strong guarantees of adequate financial support in their immediate and fair transition to renewable energy. While the agreement leaves open loopholes that could permit continued use of coal, oil, and gas, some climate experts see it as the beginning of the end for the fossil fuel era. Although the agreement doesn’t compel countries to phase out fossil fuels completely, it paves the way for more future negotiations and compromises, underscoring the urgency for nations to match words with action and make the transition in the coming years before disaster strikes.
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