Istanbul – Nearly seven months after Turkey’s general presidential and parliamentary elections, which were described as the toughest in the history of modern Turkey, news and details surface about the preparations for the upcoming local elections in about three months. What are the differences and similarities between these upcoming elections and the past ones?
Recently, the İyi Party, which is the second of the opposition ‘Table of Six’ parties, announced it would be entering the local elections separately and without alliances. According to a number of experts, this announcement represents a significant change in the electoral landscape compared to previous elections, while they also highlight the possibility of some kind of shift or retreat.
Journalist and author Abdulkadir Selvi stated, “Truthfully, the last presidential and parliamentary elections were the most important in the last 20 years in Turkey as they were a juncture in determining Turkey’s future and independence. They sought their own ‘Zelensky,’ and this was evident from Biden’s famed speech before the elections.”
Selvi, in his conversation with Al Jazeera, mentioned that the plan did not succeed thanks to the awareness of the Turkish people and the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
The Turkish writer continued, “Despite the significance of the last elections, the upcoming local elections are very important because lately local elections have become expressive, indicative, and often decisive for general elections.”
According to Selvi, the upcoming local elections will test the stability, leadership, and security that were achieved by the ruling party during the presidential and parliamentary elections.
“If the achievements of the ruling party continue during the local elections, this means support and approval for Erdoğan’s policies, and Erdoğan will emerge stronger and more present locally and internationally,” Selvi added.
Regarding the form and factors of competition, Selvi said, “There is no doubt that Istanbul carries great importance and symbolism as it is Erdoğan’s gateway into the world of politics, and naturally, it will be a focal point of attention and competition.”
The Turkish writer also said that the opposition – the ‘Table of Six’ – is currently working on gathering its forces and organizing all its cards to support Ekrem İmamoğlu, the Republican People’s Party candidate, to win again the Istanbul municipality mayoralty.
About these efforts, Selvi said, “There are pressures on the İyi Party, and arrangements are being made to secure the support of the rest of the table members.”
The Differences and Significance
Regarding the key elements that will make a victory (regaining control) or defeat of the ruling party in Istanbul probable, Selvi adds, “It may appear to an observer that the opposition has better chances in Istanbul and Ankara. I expect that the Justice party will win in them, or at least in Istanbul, because it utilises a strict system to choose the right candidate, which is important. Also, I believe it will focus on a language of work and achievement, which is a weak point for the opposition candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu.”
“If the ruling party does not make mistakes in the coming phase, I believe it will win the local elections overall with the same power and a higher percentage of votes than in the general elections, thus leading Turkey with strength for 5 years. If the opposite happens and the opposition wins – which I do not expect – then there will be a difficult scene ahead for the ruling party’s administration,” Selvi continued in his assessments.
On this aspect, Helmi Daşdemir, a researcher and head of the Optimar Research Center known for his accurate predictions, said, “In general elections, voters choose the Turkish president and his party based on their history, experience, politics, and past success stories, while they turn away from the opposition due to the ambiguity in their vision and practical programs.”
Daşdemir continued his discussion at an event attended by Al Jazeera, “In local elections, the candidate’s local personality and the nature of the expected benefits and services from him play an important role in weighing the voter’s choice for the party.”
President of Optimar clarified that the opposition’s declared candidate in Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has lost part of his public appeal and presence that distinguished him in the last local elections in 2019. The reason for this is due to the nature and quality of services provided and his political ambitions at the expense of his duties as mayor.
“Understanding society and its desires is an important and sensitive point in elections, especially in local ones. One of the most important points is choosing the right candidate who meets the public’s desires and gains the voter’s acceptance through his presence and projects that directly affect their lives,” added Daşdemir.
Selvi stated, “Candidates for the opposition in major cities have become known, with Mansur Yavaş continuing in Ankara and Ekrem İmamoğlu in Istanbul. However, there are other significant cities like İzmir, Adana, and Mersin. I believe the Republican People’s Party will work on replacing its candidates there with new ones who are more aligned and in agreement with the party’s new administration.”
Regarding the ruling party and its alliance, Selvi continued, “The Justice and Development Party is in accord with the Nationalist Movement Party regarding major cities. Accordingly, the latter will not put forth a candidate in these cities but will support the Justice and Development Party’s candidate.”
As per Selvi’s estimations – supported by a recent statement by President Erdoğan – it is expected that the Justice and Development Party will announce its candidates by the end of this year.
Istanbul enjoys significant historical and spiritual symbolism in the conscience of the Turkish people.
The Shape of the Competition
Recently, the general Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections saw prominent involvement of the economy and refugees as competing issues and in scoring points, as was also the case in the last local elections in 2019. Given the current circumstances, their presence in the upcoming elections at the end of March is anticipated.
Researcher Helmi Daşdemir pointed out that the year 2019, especially the economy, played a crucial role in the voter’s expression of discontent and the ruling party’s loss of Istanbul in particular. He added, “But the most important file is understanding society and choosing the right candidate.”
Daşdemir continued, “Local elections serve as a compass for the next general elections in 2028, and I believe that the opposition front is not qualified to compete according to the files and conditions of local elections, contrary to what is evident in the ruling party and its alliance.”
Selvi remarked, “No doubt, important issues like the economy and refugees will be present on the local election agenda but in a different manner and to a lesser extent than in the general elections,” confirming that local elections have a specific agenda and certain topics that are more prevalent.
The Turkish journalist added, “I believe the ruling party will follow a competition strategy through projects and plans and will focus on highlighting the value and magnitude of the opposition’s achievements during its years of governing major cities.”
Experts agree that projects like urban transformation, daily life struggles, inflation levels, and services provided by municipalities that touch citizens’ lives, such as transportation, will play a significant role in the local election race in Turkey.
It is noted that the Istanbul municipality had not slipped from the grasp of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan – from the Welfare Party to the Justice and Development Party – from 1994 until 2019, and the Turkish President accords it significant status in his political and social life.
