Moscow faced distinctive challenges in 2023 due to the ongoing war in Ukraine that seems to be edging into its third year with no political resolution in sight to end the hostilities.
In addition to the conflict with Kyiv, Russia experienced various developments this year, which Moscow deems as repercussions of a disordered international relationship system and the disregard of security guarantees it sought.
The collaboration between Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi has been increasing and alarming the West (Reuters).
Final Divorce
Western sanctions against Russia have reached an unprecedented level in the history of international relations, breaking records in terms of scope, sectors affected, and the number of individuals and institutions targeted.
The year 2023 marked Moscow's most significant political maneuver since the fall of the Soviet Union, as it took steps to lay the groundwork for an alternative international relations system to the unipolarity that has prevailed for nearly three decades.
The Arab region became one of the key destinations for top Russian officials, notably President Vladimir Putin, who recently visited Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, wrapping up a year of internationally restricted tours due to an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court.
Strengthening the Home Front
Legislation was introduced this year aimed at protecting the domestic front from Western propaganda and minimizing the activities of non-governmental organizations as much as possible.
This legislation also targeted the "social security" system, where Russia delivered blows to what is termed "the international movement of homosexuals," culminating in a complete ban of their activities and branding the movement as extremist, after only a few months had passed since the prohibition of gay propaganda and sexual orientation diversity.
Russia declared 2024 as the Year of the Family, emphasizing the deepening of Russian traditional spiritual values that have long struggled against the wave of "imported" Western liberalism.
New legislation also held criminal responsibility for the "spreading of fake news" regarding the Russian armed forces and military operations in Ukraine, as well as misinformation about social support for conscripts and their families.
Against expectations, the current year did not witness a renewal of military mobilization within the country despite rumors that caused uncertainty among the Russian populace. A mobilization was announced in September 2022, calling up 300,000 reserve soldiers, just slightly over 1% of Russia's total mobilization resources.
The War in Ukraine
The Ukrainian war entered its second consecutive year as the most significant event in the country and was characterized by strengthening field presence across all fronts and bolstering defensive capabilities in Russian areas bordering Ukraine, which have experienced repeated attacks from the Ukrainian side.
Improvements were made to Russia's air defense systems, particularly those earmarked to confront drones, after Moscow and other Russian cities faced several attacks with this type of weapon, which both sides have employed since the early weeks of the war.
Russian officials, as well as political and military analysts, indicate that Moscow feels more "combat confident" based on what they consider Ukraine's failure to launch the counteroffensive promised over several months.
Military affairs analyst Viktor Litovkin points out that satellite data designed to detect forest fires as a model for spotting military operation explosions lead to the conclusion that the intensity of Ukrainian armed forces' military actions has considerably waned since September, suggesting a slowdown in their advance.
"The counteroffensive by Ukraine has ended," the military expert commented in an interview to Al Jazeera Net, asserting that Kyiv lacks sufficient reserves and its forces on the frontlines are "beginning to wane."
In light of what it describes as the Ukrainian military's "failures," the expert mentioned that divergences are surfacing among the country's officials, such as between President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Supreme Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
Overcoming Sanctions
The Western coalition continued to impose sanctions on Russian individuals and entities in 2023, with the American administration blaming them for aiding Russia in circumventing imposed restrictions on dual-use goods and equipment imports.
Despite these ongoing sanctions primarily targeting associates of Russia's military-industrial complex and armed forces, economic expert Viktor Lashon assures that Russia has successfully navigated these restrictions, shifting focus to stimulating its economy despite labor shortages, inflation, and high-interest rates.
According to Lashon in his interview to Al Jazeera Net, Russia's export-oriented economy, valued at 2.2 trillion dollars, has withstood the sanctions better than even Moscow had expected, despite Western intents to isolate Russia.
Wagner Group's Mutiny
The military rebellion carried out by the "Wagner Group" in June last year, which had been considered the backbone of Russian forces in Ukraine, was an unexpected event, even after the harsh statements that preceded it, including founder Yevgeny Prigozhin's scathing criticisms which began with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and later, President Vladimir Putin himself.
Although the rebellion was swiftly resolved through a settlement orchestrated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, it was only a matter of two months before the country reeled from the mutiny's shock when news broke of the plane crash that carried Prigozhin from Moscow to Saint Petersburg, killing him and 10 others aboard.
Political analyst Sergey Persanov predicts that uncovering the full circumstances of the incident will take time, given the enmity Prigozhin harbored against many power figures in political and military institutions, potentially complicating the investigation, while the incident's public interest has waned significantly lately.
Pivoting Toward "BRICS"
Russia showed increased interest in strengthening ties within the BRICS organization and expanding its framework by adding new countries this year. The summit in Johannesburg was a long-awaited event for Moscow, according to observers.
While Western media focused their reports on the internal contradictions of the alliance, believed to hinder leaders from any significant agreement, the press from Eastern and Southern countries deemed the summit remarkable and capable of instigating changes in the current world order.
For Russia, BRICS is a vast market for selling extracted minerals, with each country benefiting the economy's need for rare earth minerals, structural aluminum, steel alloys, and more.
Russian expert Vladimir Yaroslavsky, however, notes disappointment regarding the unified currency project for the organization's member states.
He points out that many lacked high expectations for this project based on the latest BRICS summit results. Nevertheless, the mere activation and expansion of the organization suit Moscow's interests in pivoting toward the East and the Global South.
