From the first day of the October 7th events—and the subsequent aggression towards Gaza—Jordan's political stance has been clear regarding the Israeli occupation: demanding a halt to the aggression on Gaza, and rejecting the Israeli objectives which aim to depopulate the Gaza Strip of its residents. But how is this position interpreted? And what are Jordan's concerns regarding this war?
Escalating Political and Field Position
Since the beginning of the war on Gaza, Jordan's stance has followed a policy of gradual escalation against Israeli practices; Jordan was clear that Israel wanted to exploit what happened on October 7th to achieve major political goals and to mark a new phase in the attempts to resolve the Palestinian issue.
The Jordanian regime was aware of the Israeli right-wing's discourse, and its desires from the war, hence, the Jordanian monarch declared that any solution which does not restore the Palestinian rights to their people is destined to fail, causing more violence and destruction. He also affirmed his rejection of any plans related to the displacement of Palestinians or the reoccupation of Gaza by Israel, and warned of another explosion of violence in the West Bank and an expansion of the conflict if settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank continued.
The Jordanian monarch informed the U.S. Secretary of State—during his visit to the region—of Jordan's rejection of any attempts to displace Palestinians, and the necessity to open safe corridors in Gaza for aid deliveries that ensure the stability of the Palestinian people on their land, to prevent forced displacement, and to reject Israel's policy of collective punishment. Jordan also announced its alignment and support of any stance against displacement, stating that Israel's actions—denying food, water, and medicine to the people of Gaza—are war crimes.
Queen Rania also told Western media that Israel is committing brutal crimes under the guise of self-defense, reminding them that the Palestinian issue did not start on October 7th, but is a 75-year-old issue of Palestinian suffering and occupation. She also mentioned that Israel is classified as an apartheid state by Israeli and international human rights organizations.
Jordanian Foreign Minister's statements were even more pointed against Israeli occupation, stating, "Hamas is an idea, and the idea does not end," referring to the discourse on what follows Gaza as a leap in the air. He also announced that Jordan had stopped signing the energy-for-water agreement, which was supposed to be signed last October, stating that Israel has destroyed the peace environment in the region, pushing it towards extensive war and dragging it into hell. He said that the "Wadi Araba" treaty—between Jordan and Israel—would be just a piece of paper covered in dust, and insisted that Israel is committing war crimes in Gaza, stating any forced displacements of Palestinians would be considered a declaration of war on Jordan.
These political statements were accompanied by Jordan's military maneuvers, moving tanks, troop carriers, and military reinforcements, and positioning the army in the western border areas between Jordan and the occupied West Bank. This was in response to the Israeli National Security Minister, Ben Gvir, distributing weapons to settlers in West Bank settlements. These military movements by Jordan were seen as a declaration of readiness for war, should there be any attempt to displace Palestinians from the West Bank towards Jordan.
All this was accompanied by practical steps in both the West Bank and Gaza to reinforce the Palestinian presence on their land against displacement efforts. Jordan, with coordination with the American side, managed to send medical supplies via an airdrop to the Jordanian field hospital established in the Tal Al-Hawa area in northern Gaza since 2009, on multiple occasions.
Jordan also refused Israeli demands to evacuate the hospital, holding them responsible for any attempt to assault the hospital and its staff, and established a new field hospital in Khan Younis in southern Gaza. This was in addition to a new field hospital established in Nablus in the West Bank after escalation and sieging of Palestinian cities and villages, making a total of three field hospitals in the West Bank, with another one established in Ramallah since 2000, and another in Jenin since 2002. Furthermore, convoys of food supplies were sent to the West Bank in anticipation of any developments that the Israeli ruling right-wing might exploit to displace Palestinians from the West Bank.
It is unlikely that the Jordanian-Israeli peace treaty, the "Wadi Araba" treaty, will be annulled except in one case: the actual commencement of the displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank towards Jordan. For Jordan, this matter is related to the state identity, national security, top interests, and stability.
How is Jordan's Position Interpreted?
All of these high-level political statements, allowing for significant popular movements and activities, military enhancements on the Jordanian ground, mobilization on the western borders, and medical and food reinforcements on the territories of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, are interpreted within a clear context: to stand against any plan to displace the Palestinian people from their land.
Jordan is aware that one of Israel's most pressing challenges is the Palestinian demographic issue. Approximately 1.7 million Arabs, holding Israeli nationality, reside in the territories occupied in 1948, while about 3.27 million Palestinians live in the West Bank, and 2.23 million in Gaza. Consequently, Israel has enacted the Jewish Nation-State Law in July 2018, a law threatening the existence of Arab communities in Israel, and increasing their suffering as second-class citizens, with some viewing it as a straightforward first step towards displacing the Arab component from Israeli territories.
Israel has established settlements unrecognized by the international community on more than 43% of the West Bank area, with about 727,000 Israeli settlers living in these settlements and outposts and seeking to expand these settlements and annex more Palestinian land in the West Bank.
Jordan views the Israeli stance as an attempt to start a displacement plan to rid themselves of the Palestinian demographic that threatens the Jewish character of the Israeli state. Since the October 7th events, Israel has been trying to displace Gaza residents to Sinai and swallow the land to annex it to Gaza's envelopment settlements or reoccupy it and establish defense lines and barriers from within Gaza—a step Jordan sees as a major move towards reimplementing the scenario in the West Bank at the occurrence or instigation of a security event.
Jordan understands that the Israeli right-wing's strategic plan is based on swallowing geography and rid of the Palestinian demography, displacing it in neighboring countries.
Jordan still sees the best solution for the Palestinian issue is the establishment of a Palestinian state based on the June 4th borders, including the entire West Bank, Gaza, the Jordan Valley, and East Jerusalem. All of Jordan's practical movements and political statements are interpreted in the context of standing against displacement and seizing the historical moment to revive the idea of a Palestinian state, which is being eroded with the rise and expansion of the Israeli right-wing.
Where is Jordan's Escalation Heading?
The sharp political statements and the currently tense relations between Jordan and Israel are interpreted as Jordan confronting the risk of displacement and pushing for the establishment of a Palestinian state. However, both parties have strong relations with the American ally, who understands the range of differences and conflicts of interest between its two allies but manages them in a way that achieves relative satisfaction for all and does not undermine American interests in the region.
The American strategic vision for the region currently relies on establishing a cohesive alliance in the Middle East, including all its allies, led by Israel, protecting American and allied interests amid a gradual withdrawal from the region, and aiming to thwart and prevent Chinese dominance and influence during this era. America wants this withdrawal to be organized and for the void left by it to be filled by its allies to confront any project that may affect American interests in the Middle East in the future.
In light of the American strategic view of the upcoming regional management, it can be said that the tension in the political relations between Jordan and Israel may end with the Israeli right-wing government voluntarily backing down from the idea of displacement—or due to American pressure—and the departure of Israel's most right-wing government, to be replaced by a government that the Jordanian regime can deal and cooperate with. A government that believes in the establishment of a Palestinian state and the continuation of the peace process – an outcome on which Jordan hinges its vision for resolving the Palestinian issue.
It is improbable to cancel the Jordanian-Israeli peace treaty, the "Wadi Araba" treaty, except under one particular circumstance: the actual commencement of displacing Palestinians from the West Bank into Jordan, a matter that Jordan regards as relating to the state's identity, national security, supreme interests, and stability.
It is also not expected that Israel will halt the execution of the gas supply agreement to Jordan, and it is possible that operations and signatures on the energy-for-water agreement will be resumed if the war ends, and the differences and conflicts of interest are settled by the American ally, preserving the interests of all concerned.
Jordan will not abandon its demand for the establishment of a Palestinian state; for, in addition to achieving Palestinian interests, it considers this Palestinian state to be the biggest security belt that protects and achieves the highest Jordanian interests. Jordan will continue to foster a supportive environment in the West Bank that fortifies the resilience and stability of the Palestinian people on their land, thwarting any displacement attempts in the present and the future.
