At the onset of each year, the American intelligence website “Stratfor” releases its annual forecasts, highlighting the main geopolitical trends expected to significantly impact the world.
Stratfor, the American site, has prepared a comprehensive report of its predictions for the year 2024, which will be fully published on January 3, 2024. Key highlights include:
The World Braces for a Close U.S. Presidential Election
The world holds its breath as it awaits a closely contested U.S. presidential election in November 2024.
The current U.S. administration will attempt to bolster its position in the eyes of voters through policies such as tightening measures on the southern U.S. border. Meanwhile, the rest of the world will begin to brace itself for a potential new administration led by former President Donald Trump, which could herald a return to trade wars and cast doubts on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Biden (right) and Trump (European)
Israeli Control Over Gaza
Stratfor predicts that Israel will reoccupy the Gaza Strip and continue to counter Palestinian militants, regional instability, and diplomatic resistance, not to mention its confrontation with internal political uncertainty.
Israel will also struggle to find a civilian partner capable of governing Gaza, while the Palestinian Authority will call for the resumption of two-state solution negotiations, which the current right-wing dominated Israeli government lacks the mandate to carry out. Instead, Israel will continue a renewed military occupation of the territory, bearing the responsibility of reconstruction and civil administration for the sector.
Regarding the remaining Hamas fighters, the site anticipates they will continue to launch attacks against Israeli forces in Gaza, and violence in the West Bank will continue, potentially escalating as Hamas transfers operations there, as well as to Lebanon and Syria.
Israel will also face harassment led by Hamas on the northern borders from Lebanon and Syria. Although both Hezbollah and Iran will attempt to rein them in to avoid provoking another major regional war, events may force Israel to consider expanding covert and overt military operations in both Lebanon and Syria to restore deterrence. Israel’s actions in Gaza are also likely to impact it politically, likely suspending Saudi-Israeli normalization and prompting further American criticism of the Israeli government coalition, which could ultimately collapse.
China’s Economic Slowdown
China’s economy is expected to slow down in 2024, but not to the point of causing a financial crisis, meaning its impact on emerging economies will be controlled. Facing an unusually uncertain economic outlook, China will continue to seek macroeconomic rebalancing.
Authorities are likely to rely on a mix of monetary and fiscal policy expansion and focus more on supporting consumption rather than investment. The slowdown in China’s growth will affect emerging and developing economies, but not significantly, as per Stratfor.
China may conduct live-fire military exercises close to Taiwan, simulating a blockade (Shutterstock)
Ukraine War
Western material and financial support for war efforts in Ukraine are expected to decrease in 2024 due to economic and political constraints, with a clear deadlock along the frontline throughout the year. It’s unlikely that a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv or even substantial negotiations will be reached.
Neither side is likely to achieve significant battlefield gains in 2024 due to resource and manpower limitations amid increasing entrenchment along the front line, preventing them from amassing sufficient forces for a major breakthrough. Nevertheless, Moscow will continue to attempt the encirclement of Ukrainian strongholds along the line to portray US President Joe Biden’s support for Ukraine as a failure and damage his chances of reelection in 2024. Ukraine will attempt to achieve tactical gains to convince the West it has sufficient backing and possibly continue making territorial gains with weapon supplies.
Taiwan Elections
Taiwan’s elections in January are likely to provoke Chinese retaliation, fueling competition with the United States, accelerating regional supply chain diversification, and increasing defense spending.
The potential victory of William Lai, candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party and Vice President of Taiwan, may lead to retaliatory Chinese actions, potentially including live-fire military exercises near Taiwan following the elections or after his inauguration in May that simulate but do not execute a blockade. China could also partially suspend the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, increasing tariffs on Taiwanese goods like petrochemicals and textiles, but not on semiconductors or other advanced electronics crucial for China’s industrial advancement.
Political Stalemate in Europe
Major European countries will experience political upheaval throughout 2024, with recurrent conflicts within coalitions in Germany and Italy and struggles between the government and parliament in France. In Germany, the already divided coalition government will face increasing difficulties in enacting legislation as internal rifts grow.
Increased U.S. Restrictions
The United States will expand technological restrictions on China, benefiting India, Malaysia, Vietnam, and other Southeast Asian countries seeking to attract investment. More controls will be placed on exporting equipment used for advanced semiconductor manufacturing and exporting high-performance chips for training artificial models.
South Africa’s President faces crucial elections this year (Reuters)
South African Elections
In South Africa, political uncertainty before the general elections will exacerbate the risks of unrest and hamper the prospects for much-needed reforms. The declining popularity of the African National Congress party could result in losing its parliamentary majority, which would delay reform implementation.
Indian Elections
In India, the government will focus on economic development and social welfare policies to ensure reelection in the general elections in April and May. However, the risk of inter-communal violence will likely escalate before and after voting.
Stratfor expects the Bharatiya Janata Party, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to win the general elections in India, maintaining the party’s high popularity. The election campaign will likely intensify around religious, ethnic, and sectarian issues, with the Hindu nationalist rhetoric of the Bharatiya Janata Party exacerbating religious divisions and potentially leading to increased violence across Indian states.
