Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has published a detailed report attempting to answer the recurring question: What does it mean to destroy Hamas?
The report was prepared by two experts in international conflicts: David Alberti, who specializes in the International Security Program at the center, and Daniel Byman, a researcher in the Transnational Threats Project and a professor at Georgetown University.
The report opens by discussing the consistent reactions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden towards the Al-Aqsa Flood operation carried out by the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the Hamas movement, on October 7.
Following the attack, the Israeli occupation declared the necessity of destroying Hamas and putting an end to its threats. Conversely, Biden emphasized the need to completely eliminate the movement.
The authors present three options related to destroying Hamas:
- Attempt to kill or capture Hamas leadership and dismantle the broader support networks it relies upon.
- Shatter Hamas's grip on power by strengthening its rivals, thus allowing them to displace the movement.
- Confront the ideology of Hamas, which encourages violent resistance to Israel.
The authors believe each of these options is difficult to achieve, with each posing significant challenges.
Eliminating Hamas Leadership and Support Networks
Israel conducted aerial and ground operations for more than 70 days with the aim of destroying Hamas. Israeli officials estimate – according to the report – that thousands of Hamas fighters were killed.
Despite the significant losses in numbers, the movement is far from defeated, let alone destroyed.
- 1- A Deep-Seated Movement
The French President Emmanuel Macron has said that if Israel maintains its goal of destroying Hamas and at the same pace, it would take 10 years. Macron's estimates could be optimistic considering early results and historical precedents of trying to destroy entrenched insurgencies.
One example of this type of fighting began when the United States launched military operations in 2001 to remove the Taliban from power and destroy Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The U.S. killed thousands of militants and dozens of leaders, including Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in 2011. However, the war against the Taliban and Al Qaeda did not end, and Al Qaeda continued for another ten years. When U.S. forces left Afghanistan, the Taliban were victorious, while Al Qaeda remained, though significantly weakened.
- 2- Targeting Leaders Is More Challenging
Targeting leaders in particular is difficult. It took the U.S. ten years to track down and kill bin Laden, and the same was true for his successor Ayman al-Zawahiri, who led the organization for another 11 years until his assassination on July 31, 2022.
Thus, pursuing the top leaders of Hamas and the Qassam Brigades is a significant and daunting challenge for the Israeli military, especially with the existence of a complex and well-fortified network of tunnels. However, Hamas has deeply rooted support within the Palestinian populace. During the Second Intifada, it repeatedly lost senior leaders, including its founder, but quickly gained power in Gaza once the Israeli forces left. Its current position is much stronger than before, having gained momentum and deepened its relationship with the populace over more than 15 years of governance.
- 3- Ability to Recruit New Members
Additionally, the number of Hamas fighters is not static; they can rely on Palestinians in Gaza to fill their ranks. The movement has not struggled with recruitment, and the devastation left by the Israeli aggression likely ensures a surplus of angry Palestinian youths ready to fight. It shouldn't be ruled out that continued aggression could broaden the conflict if the movement's allies perceive it to be nearing defeat. They might join the fight against Israel.
Moreover, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry in the Strip, the ratio of civilian casualties to Qassam fighters is alarmingly high, raising concerns and unlikely promising success for the Israeli military's primary objective.
The almost certain outcome is that the Palestinian casualties have already shifted worldwide public opinion against Israel and in favor of the Palestinians, creating tension with the Biden administration, Israel's strongest and most significant supporter.
Breaking Hamas's Hold on Power and Strengthening Alternative Groups
The second point in empowerment for alternative leadership to Hamas in Gaza has been promoted by President Biden and may involve the intervention of Arab countries. In addition, the United Nations and the international community may play a role.
- 1- Replacing Hamas Authority
The idea here is not to directly destroy Hamas, but to replace its political authority in Gaza, which would significantly reduce its overall power. Replacing Hamas politically is challenging, as its deep roots in Gaza enable it to mobilize support across the Strip. Any rival must gain the ordinary Gazan Palestinians' support and possess the military strength necessary to suppress Hamas's forces as they challenge the usurping authority.
The Palestinian Authority doesn't seem like an ideal choice, being perceived as weak and corrupt, with its credibility on the line. To many Palestinians, it is seen as a "servant of the Israeli occupation." If the Palestinian Authority gains power in Gaza on the back of an Israeli tank, it would lose further credibility. It's unlikely they could face Hamas in Gaza alone, requiring ongoing Israeli support.
- 2- Political Integration
Alternatively, the Palestinian Authority would work with Hamas, which must be a part of the future Palestinian framework. However, both Israel and the United States would reject this position. Consequently, any settlement with the Palestinian Authority would not lead to the elimination of Hamas and would be indefensible from the Israeli perspective, as it would legitimize the movement, which would be the dominant partner in any relationship with the authority in Gaza.
- 3- Disinterest from Arab and International Entities
Arab countries lack substantial interest in intervening and have limited capabilities. It's not easy for any Arab regime to appear supportive of Israel and to assist it against Hamas. Similarly, international forces would struggle to navigate Gaza, lacking local knowledge and being considered occupiers.
Confronting Hamas's Ideology
Another concept for defeat includes combating the ideology of Hamas in the practical application of governance.
The complexity lies in Hamas's unique blend of political Islam and Palestinian nationalism.
- 1- Embodying Resistance
Hamas seeks to embody "resistance," challenging Israel militarily so Palestinians can secure their rights. This grants the movement unlimited popular support, making the idea of destroying it even more motivating for the people to stand by it indefinitely.
Currently, no counter ideology to Hamas is widely accepted among Palestinians. Traditional nationalism, epitomized by Fatah, has been in decline for years, and following the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, Hamas's popularity only increased as its rivals waned.
- 2- Increasing Popularity
Worse for Israel, the ideology of "resistance" has grown more popular. Reliable surveys show that Hamas enjoys significantly more popularity among Palestinians. Hamas's blow to Israel acted as a release for many Palestinians feeling humiliated by the ongoing Israeli occupation.
- 3- Severe Losses
Furthermore, the severe losses among civilians and the destruction from the military occupation have increased Palestinian bitterness. This is part of Israel's strategy to show Palestinians that there will be a hefty price for resistance.
This strategy could either heighten resistance against the occupation or, over time, lead to a segment of the population blaming Hamas.
The report concludes that the cost of aggression on Gaza is excessively high. Israel must understand that any success in this war is likely to be limited and that it will continue to deal with Hamas and the broader problem in Gaza for years to come.
