Spanning over 375 kilometers in length, the Jordanian-Syrian border to the north and east of the kingdom has started to pose a significant security headache to the Jordanian state and the wider Arab region since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution and its subsequent evolution into an armed conflict. The situation worsened following Russia's withdrawal and its distraction from Syrian affairs due to the Ukrainian war, compounded by the expansion of Iranian presence in those regions.
The Captagon Republic
The American administration's imposition of the Caesar Act on the Syrian regime in June 2020 has led to increased dependence by the Syrian regime and Iranian militias in Syria on the drug trade as a means to secure income for the Syrian state apparatus and the militias.
The British government noted that Syria produces 80% of the global Captagon drug supply. An investigative study revealed that the Fourth Division of the Syrian Army—directly linked to the brother of the Syrian president—is responsible for establishing Captagon manufacturing plants within Syria and in the Lebanese Bekaa, in collaboration with Hezbollah. This facilitates the smuggling of the drug into Jordan through the Jordanian-Syrian border, targeting markets in Jordan, the Arabian Gulf, and Europe via the port of Latakia.
According to the study, security forces in the Middle East confiscated one hundred million Captagon pills in the first five months of 2023. Saudi Arabia alone seized one hundred million pills throughout 2023, valued at two billion dollars. Jordan managed to confiscate sixty-five million pills in 2022, all originating from Syrian territory.
Syria has eleven main Captagon manufacturing facilities spread across various provinces, most notably in Suweida, Aleppo, and coastal regions. Additionally, there are over 80 small labs, especially in the Daraa region, with a production capacity exceeding one thousand pills daily. Lebanese businessmen aligned with Hezbollah supply manufacturers and production networks with raw materials and necessary equipment sourced from India and China, purportedly for pharmaceutical production, with a single manufacturing machine valued at no more than thirty thousand dollars.
The Fourth Division of the Syrian Army oversees the drug manufacturing and transportation between Syrian provinces, as well as their smuggling abroad. These operations occur under the watchful eye of the Syrian regime, which relies entirely on them for financing and managing its affiliated agencies, providing an annual revenue estimated at over 5.6 billion dollars.
Syrian state agencies and militias exploit Syrian citizens in the border regions, particularly those aged between 18 to 35, by recruiting them as smugglers after training them for such tasks. A Syrian citizen's monthly income barely reaches 20 to 25 dollars, but a successful smuggling operation could earn them over ten thousand dollars, enticing many to undertake this dangerous venture.
In March 2023, the United States imposed sanctions on figures close to the Assad regime, including two of the Syrian president's cousins and Lebanese businessmen with strong ties to the Syrian regime, due to their involvement in the manufacture and smuggling of Captagon. Although the Syrian president attended the Arab Summit in Jeddah in May and his presence was conditioned on the Syrian regime's cessation of drug manufacturing, this did not reflect reality on the ground.
Targeting Jordanian and Arab Stages
Iran utilizes sectarianism in regions with Shiite populations to expand its influence, as evident in its control over four Arab countries: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. In areas without a Shiite population, Iran clings to the Palestinian issue to assert its stance.
Despite presenting itself as a regional project, Iranian policy is shunned by the American strategy, which consistently excludes major powers from leading its initiatives, preferring smaller states that can be controlled and won't deviate from American interests. America uses Israel and is pushing for the establishment of a Kurdish state to serve its purposes.
After the decline of Russian presence in Syria, Iran deployed its Afghan "Fatimiyoun" militia of seven to ten thousand fighters, who were trained at Iranian bases in Syria and disguised in regular Syrian army uniforms, along the Jordanian-Syrian border.
Iran's control over the Jordanian arena signifies an advanced front in maintaining its influence in Syria, reaching the Saudi northern border and extending its confrontation line with Israel through the western Jordanian border.
Iran's goals are not to wage war with Israel, but to gain leverage in negotiations with the American-Israeli project in the region, safeguarding Iranian interests and sharing influence.
Iran has attempted to penetrate the Jordanian sphere by proposing projects that involve the transfer of groundwaters and construction of airports, in exchange for an Iranian workforce or religious tourism. However, Jordan has emphatically refused these offers for security and political reasons.
Though Jordan's demographic does not harbor a significant Shiite population, Iran has endeavored to destabilize the country from within, capitalizing on any future internal unrest to dispatch its militias and take over the Jordanian arena.
Syria's crisis presented an opportunity for Iran to reach Jordan's borders and interfere, aiming to secure a foothold through weapon smuggling, as thousands of different types of ammunition and weapons were intercepted, smuggled from Syria to Jordan, intended to flood the area through the Jordanian gateway with drugs, funding Iran's expansionist war, and using drones and car bombs to target sensitive Jordanian sites. The operations targeting the Jordanian army along the border persist.
Jordan's Options
Jordan is keenly aware of Iran's expansionist ambitions in the Arab region, hence it approaches the issue with severe caution and awareness.
Although Jordan's options against the Iranian threat seem limited, they have proven effective in handling this challenge through various measures:
- Engaging in diplomatic communication with the Russian and Iranian sides and coordinating with the Syrian regime to sketch an understanding with the Iranian influence in southern Syria, while reinforcing the Syrian regime forces' control over the Jordanian-Syrian border.
- Jordan has altered its engagement rules at the border, considering any movement from the Syrian side a direct threat qualifying for immediate targeting.
- With American assistance, Jordan has developed a border surveillance known as the Border Security Program and requested additional American Patriot missile systems and anti-drone technologies in 2023.
- Jordan has conducted air raids and special operations inside Syria targeting leaders, manufacturing centers, and hideouts of drug and weapons traffickers.
- Jordanian security forces have launched campaigns against drug smuggling networks domestically, with drug offense prisoners amounting to forty percent of the prison population.
The security pressures on Jordan are immense, especially following the war on Gaza, with Israeli right-wing factions exploiting the situation to push for Palestinian migration toward Jordan and Egypt.
Jordan stands as the first line of defense against Iranian militia attempts in the region, yet it faces significant strain. Its ability to confront dangers from the Syrian border rests on Russo-Jordanian understandings, American military and technical support, easing tensions in the West Bank and Gaza, and Arab Gulf neighbors' collaboration in bolstering Jordan's capabilities.
Jordan's strategy in the face of these complex security challenges underscores the tightrope it must walk in preserving regional stability amidst escalating tensions and the shadow of Iranian regional ambitions.
