Moscow- As Russia enters 2024, it carries a heavy legacy from the past year’s files that saw a race against time to confront the repercussions of several sensitive issues threatening its national security and internal situation. Russian observers confirm that there have been successes in this regard, but these risks still persist.
The events witnessed in Russia during 2023 did not stop at the stalemate of the war with Ukraine, unable to achieve a decisive breakthrough, and the continued flow of Western sanctions. It also included steps toward a new alliance space consisting of countries that opted to be outside the scope of Western sanctions against Moscow.
This paves the way for 2024 to potentially be the year of Russia's repositioning within alternative geopolitical systems, whether in the former Soviet space or in other vital arenas, including the Middle East.
President Joe Biden (left) and Finnish President Sauli Niinistö during a previous meeting in Helsinki (European)
A New Challenge
Before the year 2023 exhausted its last days, a new challenge emerged from the Western front, this time from Finland which adopted a new escalatory stance against Moscow by allowing the deployment of American bases on its territory while simultaneously closing all border crossings with it.
In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Finland of "problems" by announcing the decision to re-establish the Leningrad military region, signaling a potential new confrontation on the country’s western borders, now closer than ever to contact lines with American and NATO forces.
For Russians, the most prominent issue remains the ongoing war with Ukraine, about to enter its third year without any political prospects for cessation. Russian observers believe that the crisis has reached a point of no return.
According to strategic expert Roland Pijamov, it is unlikely that the war will end this year. He mentions that the extent of military and financial aid Kyiv will receive from Western countries in the upcoming February will become clear, stressing that it will be less than in 2023. This will determine the Ukrainian forces' potential to launch a new counter-offensive and, consequently, the Russian army’s ability to resolve the conflict.
He adds that the final stance on supporting Ukraine in the war with Russia will take a new turn by the end of 2024, with the US presidential elections leading to a change in the current administration in the White House to a new team that may be less enthusiastic in supporting Kyiv.
International Politics and Alliances
Russian observers are betting that countries in Africa and Latin America can unite in a new organization – informally a "Southern Atlantic" alliance – which could become a new conveyor for a multipolar global order, posing a counterweight to the countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
According to international relations professor Alexey Mukhin, the main feature of Russia's foreign policy in 2023 was predictability. Russia stood out as one of the few countries that did not abandon international law or its rules to appease the West and faced Washington and its allies' maneuver to patronize the reality and future of international relations.
Based on this, Mukhin anticipates that 2024 will be a year of widespread realignment, with a considerable percentage of the new alliances shifting in Moscow's favor.
Domestically, the presidential elections scheduled for March 17 are expected to be the most significant internal event of the new year, especially after Putin confirmed his candidacy.
Russia analyst Vitaly Ivanov believes Putin's re-election is almost certain, given the steps he has taken to face the consequences of sanctions and pressures, and the decision to opt for war with Ukraine to address security threats after the West's refusal to provide security guarantees. He notes that these steps have received approval from the Russian public, who are ready to re-elect him.
Additionally, Ivanov sees Putin's re-election as a reassuring factor for citizens who, although the past year was not easy, benefited from countermeasures that helped them adapt to economic fluctuations.
War Economy and Sanctions
Official estimates project that the Russian economy will grow by 1.1% in 2024 and 1% in 2025, almost similar data reported by the [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)].
The Bank of Russia expects the GDP to grow between 0.5 and 1.5% in 2024 and between 1 and 2% in 2025.
Economic expert Viktor Lashon believes that while sanctions will continue to be applied to Russia in 2024, with risks of their intensification in late March 2024 affecting the economy, the situation in Europe is not much better, especially with the migrant crisis. He also mentions that Europe’s predicament could be indirectly confronted through Russia's interaction with China, whose relations with the West are strained due to Taiwan and have become increasingly critical.
Lashon points out that this will stimulate progress towards new alliances and a new currency, but the results will not be significant until the latter years of this decade.
He also notes that the ruble faced an unprecedented storm in 2023. Nonetheless, monetary authorities managed to neutralize the impact of restrictive measures and prevent a drain on Russia's treasury.
Contrary to expectations, even the oil embargo and price cap have not brought down the Russian economy. Instead, GDP recovery to the 2021 level was achieved. In the labor market, wages continue to rise, while unemployment is declining to a record low.
However, the demographic situation in Russia continues to be a significant issue, with recent years seeing a decline in birth rates, while retirement age and life expectancy are rising.
While migration has served as one possible solution to the demographic problem, it remains an unstable process, notes social affairs researcher Vladimir Kushol.
He explains that the number of regular migrants coming to work is on the rise, yet there is reluctance to work in Russia among the residents of neighboring countries due to the ruble's depreciation against hard currencies, reducing the country's appeal to foreign labor.
