A Swiss newspaper recently reported that the Yemeni Houthi group has escalated its attacks in the Red Sea in recent weeks, targeting ships they allege are trading with Israel. This strategy has caused a segment of maritime traffic to avoid the Suez Canal. But what do the Houthis stand to gain from such actions?
To address this question, Le Temps conducted an interview with anthropologist Franck Mermier, a Yemen specialist and research director at the French National Centre for Scientific Research. Mermier sheds light on the calculations behind these operations, suggesting that by positioning themselves as defenders of the Palestinian cause, the Houthis have bolstered their legitimacy.
Mermier clarified that the Houthis' dramatic entrance onto the scene is set against the backdrop of supporting the Palestinian issue, which has garnered widespread support within Yemen, even beyond their controlled territories. This appreciation extends to the Arab world, which supports the Palestinians, potentially granting the Houthis a certain level of regional influence. They have been somewhat effective to the extent that they have directly impacted supplies to Israeli ports.
This move reflects the Houthis' desire to showcase their power locally and internationally, asserting their legitimacy in Yemen. It also sends a message to their neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia, in a bid to raise the stakes in negotiations for possible concessions.
A Significant Dilemma
According to Mermier, the American-led coalition faces a significant dilemma because military intervention against Houthi strongholds could accelerate insecurity in the Red Sea and exacerbate the problem. Conversely, inaction could present further obstacles to maritime trade, perhaps prompting Israel to intervene directly.
Although the Houthi strategy appears to be currently prevailing, the author believes it is challenging to judge the rationality of their decision. By pushing the envelope, they risk jeopardizing their current gains related to ceasefire agreements and negotiations with Saudi Arabia, for instance, or in easing the blockade on the Hodeidah Port and Sanaa Airport. The coalition and various navies might enforce a complete blockade, potentially thwarting any items, including humanitarian aid, from reaching them, which would be disastrous.
When asked about the relationship between the Houthis and Iran, the French researcher concluded that the movement originated from regional and religious frustration and marginalization, with internal motivations unrelated to Iran. However, once they seized power in 2014, they received technical and logistical assistance from Tehran. Though this support does not imply the Houthis serve Iran's interests, they now resemble groups in Iraq that align with Tehran's interests. Furthermore, they emulate movements supported by Iran, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, which they seem to regard as a model.
