Occupied Jerusalem – Israeli analysts have raised concerns warning of the risks associated with the ongoing war on Gaza, unanimously agreeing it has yet to achieve its objectives. Some analysts predict that what were considered to be "achievements" could explode into a strategic failure should the duration of combat and ground battles prolong.
As the aggression enters its fourth month, convictions among observers are solidifying around the necessity of orchestrating a comprehensive prisoner exchange deal in light of the Israeli army's failure to free even a "single hostage" through its ground military operations.
Analysts, affiliated with various constituents of the political spectrum and party camps, are unanimous in their view that it is impossible to undermine the military capabilities of the resistance and to end the rule of Hamas in the enclave. There are calls to end the war and enter negotiations concerning the aftermath.
Strategic Defeat
Eyal Alimeh, a military analyst for the official Israeli television channel "Kan," concurs with these assessments, noting that the war on the Gaza Strip has now reached a critical phase in terms of its continuation due to numerous fundamental challenges and issues.
Alimeh told Al Jazeera Net that the primary challenges are linked to the course of the fighting and the announced objectives of the war, which have not been achieved so far. The ongoing battles suggest that the discrepancy between the objectives is becoming clearer, indicating that Israel cannot resolve this contradiction and meaning the war's goals will remain unattained.
The military analyst cited remarks from the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant, expressing concerns over the Israeli army's inability to achieve the war objectives and preserve military accomplishments in the field. Alimeh warns that these achievements could turn into a strategic defeat.
He pointed out that the Israeli government under Benjamin Netanyahu went to war with specified military objectives but lacks any plan for the day after or a political framework in its agenda. He stated, "In the absence of a political horizon, Israel is likely to sink into the Gaza morass, making it difficult to achieve sought-after goals."
Meanwhile, military analyst Akiva Eldar agrees with the military analysts' consensus that Tel Aviv has not realized any of its declared war objectives, affirming it is "far from achieving any goal."
Eldar outlined the implications of these estimates for Al Jazeera Net, indicating the possibility of the countdown for the end of the war due to real pressures from US President Joe Biden's administration on Netanyahu's government to stop the war on Gaza, fearing a comprehensive confrontation and the outbreak of a regional war.
Failed Option
Eldar elaborated that the current Israeli government has no political plan for the aftermath of the war, dealing with the sector solely from a military standpoint, aiming to eliminate Hamas and alter the sector's political reality – a proven failure that will not materialize.
The political analyst pointed out that Netanyahu's government, composed of an alliance of extreme right-wing parties, settlers, religious, and ultra-Orthodox parties, is incapable of formulating any political program with the Palestinians that has a regional and international horizon, adhering to the military option despite its proven inefficacy.
Military analyst for the "Ynet" website of the "Yedioth Ahronoth" newspaper, Ron Ben Yishai, shared his impressions of the ground battles through his accompaniment of the Israeli army's engineering teams attempting to dismantle the arsenal system and explode the mouths of the tunnels as they are discovered.
According to Ben Yishai, a simple spark in the weapon installations and tunnel entrances belonging to Hamas could lead to significant explosions, undoing some of the field achievements made by the Israeli army.
Ben Yishai remarked on a tunnel mouth, where its explosion by the Israeli army resulted in the death of 6 soldiers, underscoring the perilous nature of Hamas's military production system, including underground explosives, ammunition, and missile factories, about which Israel remains uninformed.
In the absence of an Israeli plan regarding the truthfulness of the political level's claims of achieving the war objectives, Amos Harel – a military analyst for "Haaretz" newspaper – quoted Security Minister Yoav Gallant officially announcing the army's transition to the third phase of the war in northern Gaza, suggesting this signals not the end but the extension of the war.
Unrealistic Objectives
The same military analyst highlighted the numerous challenges Hamas positions before the Israeli army, not only across various infiltration axes in the sector, inflicting severe losses in soldiers, equipment, and military machinery but also within Israeli territory.
He added that the latest rocket barrage from the sector targeting "Greater Tel Aviv” demonstrates Hamas's capacity to continue disrupting Israel's internal front.
With these developments and realities on the ground, the military analyst believes the Israeli government, which set high war objectives even if appearing unrealistic and unattainable, now faces a political and coalition crisis with the war entering its fourth month. Harel stated: "It's evident that whether it be dismantling Hamas's rule, undermining its arsenal, freeing the captured Israelis, or returning residents to the Gaza envelope, none have been achieved and remain far from realization."
Under the headline "How do we climb out of the pit we have fallen into?" political analyst for "Yedioth Ahronoth," Nahum Barnea, penned an article mentioning that the events of October 7, 2023, led Israel into a profound pit, with exit meaning the achievement of the stated war objectives – confirmed to be unrealistic and unachievable regardless of the conflict's continuation.
Barnea explained that the last three weeks of fighting have not altered the reality; in fact, they have cost Tel Aviv human losses among its soldiers, alongside a humanitarian catastrophe in the sector for which Israel bears responsibility.
He stated: "War realities harm Israel's image internationally and do not bring us closer to a non-existent victory. Even if Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, or both were assassinated, this would not change the facts and outcomes of the fighting."
Barnea believes that the Israeli government should negotiate with Hamas for a comprehensive exchange deal, ensuring the liberation of all Israeli captives while leaving Hamas's governance in the sector intact.
He pointed out that such an outcome amounts to a humiliating defeat for Israel, saying: "It may be correct to negotiate with Hamas as there is a high price for failure; if all captive Israelis at Hamas were killed, it would be a permanent stain on the conscience of Israeli society."
