Turkish President and ruling Justice and Development Party leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has announced his party's candidates for the upcoming local elections for most provinces and major cities. However, the spotlight is firmly on the Istanbul Greater Municipality, the most significant in the country and symbolically important for Erdogan himself, who has nominated the well-known former minister, Murad Kurum.
Opposition
In the 2019 local elections, the Turkish opposition, particularly the Republican People's Party, clinched victories in the municipalities of Ankara and Istanbul, wresting control from the ruling Justice and Development Party after about a quarter-century of its dominance, preceded by the Welfare Party (conservative).
One of the key reasons for this victory was the unity of the opposition behind a single candidate in both cities, with official support from the nationalist Good Party, the conservative Felicity Party, the liberal Democrat Party, and unofficial backing from the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party. This came in addition to objections from certain segments of society over the Justice and Development Party's recent policies, and poor candidate selection at the time.
Then-candidate for the Istanbul Greater Municipality from the Justice and Development Party, former Prime Minister and Speaker of Parliament Binali Yildirim, was not deemed suitable for the position -both politically and in terms of age- as he faced the younger and more vibrant opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu, who at that time was more capable of mass and media communication, especially among the youth.
Today, as the Justice and Development Party is adamant about reclaiming the country's most important municipality, the political landscape differs significantly from the previous elections. The opposition alliance has become fragmented, with most components calling it an irreparable breakup, particularly the Good Party, which declared its intent to participate in local elections independently and will not support the Republican People's Party, even in Istanbul and Ankara, as the latter hoped.
Additionally, small and newly founded conservative parties such as the Felicity Party, Future Party, Democrat Party, and Progress Party are openly at odds with the biggest opposition parties, leaving only open or implicit support for the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party, or under its new name, the Equality and Democracy Party, to the Republican People's Party.
As a result, the Republican People's Party loses the crucial factor that contributed to its 2019 Istanbul victory and now awaits factors related to the Justice and Development Party, particularly its candidate and electoral program, following its announcement that the current Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu will be running again.
The Justice and Development Party's motto for the upcoming local elections, revealed during a celebration, is "Justice and Development Again.. Istanbul Again", signaling the party's resolve to regain control of its mayoralty and make it the focal battle of the imminent electoral event.
Candidates
On January 7, during a major event in Istanbul, Erdogan unveiled his party's candidates for 26 municipalities, including 11 major municipalities and 15 provinces, with the most anticipated being the candidate for Istanbul Greater Municipality. Erdogan kept the name undisclosed until later, emphasizing its significance and symbolism, while the candidate for Ankara's municipality, along with others, will be announced next week, hinting that the selection of Ankara's candidate involves more complex considerations.
The Justice and Development Party will contest the local elections set for March 31 in coordination with its recent close ally, the Nationalist Movement Party, as election laws forbid official coalitions in local elections unlike presidential and legislative ones. The coordination, discussed at length by specialized committees from both parties, entails support for one another’s candidates in certain municipalities where competition could advantage the opposition.
Subsequently, the two parties agreed to cooperate in 59 municipalities, 30 major and 29 provincial. In detail, the Nationalist Movement Party will back Justice and Development Party candidates in 52 municipalities, while the latter will support the Nationalist Movement Party in seven municipalities, and both parties will compete alongside other parties in 22 municipalities.
Erdogan announced Erdogan has shared his party's 26 local election candidates who are mostly well-recognized and strong names; 15 current mayors whom the party has re-nominated, former mayors, current and former parliamentarians, and even a former member of the rival Republican People's Party for the Municipality of Mugla, currently led by the latter.
The Istanbul Battle
Among the 26 municipalities, Istanbul stands out as the largest city in the country, steeped in historical significance, consisting of one-fifth of the national electoral reservoir, with its mayoralty considered to be more important than several ministries, exceeding many in budget, and is symbolic and significant to Erdogan himself, who began his political journey there before leading the country for over two decades.
Thus, the Justice and Development Party's slogan for the local elections is "Justice and Development Again.. Istanbul Again", underscoring the party's commitment to recapturing the mayoralty and making it the prime battle of the forthcoming elections.
When Erdogan announced the former minister and current parliament representative Murad Kurum as the candidate for Istanbul, he implied that the city would finally get its "desired" leader, employing a play on words with Kurum's name, especially since he considered the five years under the opposition's Republican People's Party akin to a period in religious history known as "the Interval."
Kurum, one of the previously speculated strong candidates, satisfies many initial conditions required in the desired candidate. He is a young, energetic politician with an impressive resume, combining bureaucratic work in state institutions with his party activities. Notably, he is not involved in internal disputes or the prevailing political polarization. This would be beneficial in a diverse city like Istanbul, and his candidacy is not rejected specifically by the Kurdish demographic.
Moreover, his professional background fits a city like Istanbul, where the potential of a significant earthquake is a major concern; he previously headed the government’s collective buildings administration and served as Minister of Environment, Urban Development, and Climate Change for a considerable term.
His performance during the devastating earthquake in the south of the country at the beginning of last year was commendably practical, political, and mediated, gaining acceptable public approval.
Additionally, Kurum hails from Konya, a conservative city with a strong Islamic and conservative presence, ensuring him not only the votes of Justice and Development Party supporters but possibly also those of other Islamic and conservative parties, such as the Felicity Party, Welfare Party Again, Future Party, Democrat Party, and Progress Party. His lack of a strongly ideological profile could also win the trust of supporters of both Turkish nationalist and Kurdish parties, a bet Erdogan seems to be making with Kurum.
Considering the above, along with the forthcoming publication of the party's election program and the launch of its campaign, amongst other less significant factors, it is confidently asserted that the Justice and Development Party's prospects of recapturing Istanbul Greater Municipality with its candidate Murad Kurum appear high. In fact, it might not be an overstatement to suggest that his chances exceed those of his rival, Imamoglu, especially if the current alliance map remains and the latter lacks additional significant party support.
