The finals of the Asian Football Cup kick off this Friday, January 12, with a flurry of predictions on who will emerge as the new champion among the 24 national teams aspiring to claim the title at the end of the tournament.
Amid fierce competition from teams like Australia, Japan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea, which aims to end its long wait after winning its sole title in 1960, Qatar, the host nation, hopes to defend its continental crown.
Al Annabi, who lifted the trophy for the first time in its history in 2019 by winning the final against the Japanese team (four-time champions), will be under pressure while playing on its home ground.
Before the start of the competition, Opta, a globally leading football data analysis site, conducted predictions using a "supercomputer" that analyzed complex algorithms and information to arrive at the final prediction of the winner's name for the 18th edition.
Statistics indicate that the "Samurai Blue" is the team most likely to win the continental crown, with a probability of 24.6%, while South Korea's chances stood at 14.3%, followed by Iran at 11.2%.
Japan's Chances in the Tournament:
- Knockout phase: 95.6%.
- Quarter-finals: 57.2%.
- Semi-finals: 36.5%.
- Finals: 21.7%.
- Winning the Championship: 12.8%.
Iran's national team, holder of the most matches won in the history of the tournament (41 matches) and the most goals scored (131 goals), ranks third among the candidates to lift the cup with a probability of 11.2%.
Iran's Chances:
- Knockout phase: 93.2%.
- Quarter-finals: 63%.
- Semi-finals: 34.9%.
- Finals: 21.2%.
- Winning the Championship: 11.2%.
On the other hand, the Australian and Saudi teams compete for the title with probabilities of 10.7% and 10.6% respectively, while Al Annabi's chances of claiming the title for the second time in a row stand at 9.8%. The UAE team, however, has a slim chance of winning the title at 2.9%.
Qatar's National Team Chances:
- Knockout phase: 88.6%.
- Quarter-finals: 58.6%.
- Semi-finals: 34.5%.
- Finals: 18.7%.
- Winning the Championship: 9.8%.
Saudi Arabia, which has reached the final six times and won three times, hopes to repeat its 1988 success on Qatari soil. It appears capable of topping Group Six, where it competes with Oman, Kyrgyzstan, and Thailand.
Saudi Arabia's Chances:
- Knockout phase: 93.5%.
- Quarter-finals: 60.1%.
- Semi-finals: 35.9%.
- Finals: 19%.
- Winning the Championship: 10.6%.
Iraq, crowned the Asian Cup champions in 2007, is the only team likely to challenge Japan in Group Four, with a near 16% chance of winning the title according to the predictions.
Iraq's Chances:
- Knockout phase: 74.9%.
- Quarter-finals: 34.7%.
- Semi-finals: 15.9%.
- Finals: 6.8%.
- Winning the Championship: 2.4%.
The rest of the Arab teams' chances participating appear negligible for claiming the champion's title and slim for reaching the final rounds, according to predictions. The UAE’s chance of reaching the final stands at 2.9%, Oman at 1.8%, Jordan at 1.1%, and Syria at 1%, while Bahrain, Lebanon, and Palestine did not exceed the 1% mark.
