The signs of concern are exceedingly visible within Israeli circles due to the potential conviction of Tel Aviv by the International Court of Justice and the harmful international repercussions that may follow.
On Thursday, the court, based in The Hague, Netherlands, began deliberations on a request submitted by South Africa accusing Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.
The repercussions that Israel fears from a potential conviction at the International Court of Justice include:
- Paving the way for the trial of Israeli leaders and officials before the International Criminal Court (also in The Hague).
- Damaging its international standing.
- Creating an international public opinion against it.
- Increasing international boycotts.
- Withholding the supply of weapons.
- Imposing military and economic sanctions.
- Cutting political and economic relations with it.
Pariah State
The Israel Democracy Institute, a private entity, stated on Wednesday that "South Africa's case represents a significant challenge for Israel, and Tel Aviv is dealing with it seriously, investing considerable legal and financial resources in the case."
The research institute pointed out that "Israel must act more vigorously against calls that are occasionally issued by public figures, which can literally be interpreted as calls for genocide."
The institute considered "South Africa’s appeal as part of the continuous efforts by Palestinians and several countries to turn Israel into a pariah state."
It clarified that "losing the case could put Israel in a very problematic position on the international stage… and while the court has the authority to issue 'provisional measures' in urgent cases, these orders could be somewhat ambiguous."
For example, there's a possibility that "the court might issue an order to Israel to refrain from committing acts of genocide, or to immediately halt fire or allow unlimited entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza," according to the institute.
The institute also mentioned that "Israel's primary focus appears to be ensuring that the court's measures are not perceived as interference in the military effort in Gaza."
It noted, "While the court does not have a police or military force to enforce its rulings, if Israel violates the court's orders or judgments, many countries will view it very negatively, which could damage Israel's international standing, and many countries may refrain from selling weapons to it."
Dangerous Snowball Effect
The newspaper Israel Hayom mentioned that "the court listens to petitions before a full panel of 15 judges from various countries, and hearing sessions can last for years. However, South Africa has also requested 'provisional measures' (pending ultimate resolution of the case), such as an order for Israel to cease fighting immediately," according to a Tuesday report.
The newspaper opined that "the chances of such a request succeeding are unclear, and the court could also issue a milder measure ordering Israel to stop activities that endanger civilians, carrying essentially the same implications."
The paper noted that although such an order "does not directly impact Israel, it might encourage some countries to cite it at the Security Council in their efforts to impose military and economic sanctions on Israel."
It was also considered a "dangerous snowball effect" and warned that "Israel's adversaries will definitely exploit it in various media outlets and universities to create a public opinion against it."
The newspaper considered that "such pressure could even influence the administration (of US President Joe Biden who supports Tel Aviv in its aggression on Gaza) to such an extent that it could restrict sales of weapons systems to Israel."
The paper added that this pressure "could lead to an investigation by the International Criminal Court, possibly culminating in the trial of Israeli leaders and military officers who participated in the war."
Israel has been waging an aggression on Gaza for 98 days, resulting in the death of more than 23,000 people, most of them children and women (Getty Images)
Boycotts and Sanctions
The Israeli newspaper Haaretz perceives that while the court does not have executive powers, "an order like the immediate cessation of hostilities would cement the perception that Israel has committed genocide, leading to its isolation, boycott, and the imposition of sanctions against it or Israeli companies."
The paper added, "The court's informal actions could influence proceedings at the International Criminal Court; if it is determined at the International Court of Justice that Israel commits acts of genocide, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court may consider taking steps against top Israeli officials involved in these acts."
Haaretz indicated that "if the court orders a ceasefire in Gaza, Israel is legally obliged to comply, being a signatory to the convention on the prevention and punishment of the crime of genocide."
However, the newspaper mentions, "Israel could also choose not to carry out the provisional order, or claim that the required steps are irrelevant."
Haaretz emphasized that in such a case, "other countries would be responsible for taking their actions against Israel on the international level."
Since October 7, the Israeli occupation has launched an offensive on Gaza, resulting in more than 23,000 deaths and 59,410 injuries, most of them children and women, alongside extensive destruction of infrastructure and an unprecedented humanitarian disaster, according to the local authorities and the United Nations.
