Gulmarg, Indian-administered Kashmir – Javad Ahmad looks on disheartenedly as he observes the cloudless sky and the stark, crimson slopes of Gulmarg. Usually abuzz with tourists and winter sports enthusiasts, this sought-after destination in the Baramulla district of Indian-administered Kashmir lies eerily quiet.
Outside his shuttered ski rental shop, Ahmad waits, yearning for a snowfall that seems increasingly unlikely as an exceptionally parched winter upsets tourism and endangers jobs in this Himalayan locale.
Ahmad, a professional ski instructor, would typically be fully booked every day from December through February when millions from across India flock here to traverse the frosty expanses and take in the snowy vistas.
Javad Ahmad outside his shop in Gulmarg [Faisal Bashir/Al Jazeera]
This season, however, he finds himself unemployed, sharing the dismal fate of countless other instructors and mountain guides as all ski reservations up until early February are called off. In previous years, Ahmad recollects, higher elevations would be blanketed with 30 to 40 feet [9-12 meters] of snow. Presently, a mere three feet lay beneath the skies.
The once bustling Gulmarg ski resort, near the Line of Control separating Kashmir between India and Pakistan, now looks hollow and abandoned.
“It’s the first time in my two-decade career that I’ve faced a jobless January,” laments the 41-year-old. “It’s heartbreaking to see these peaks without their snow.”
Thinking of a Different Path
The absence of snow has forced Ahmad to contemplate a new career direction. “I can’t foresee a future in skiing. I am thinking of switching my path, something that’s not exactly straightforward,” he confesses. Should the dry conditions persist, seeking an alternate source of income will become a necessity.
Muhammad Yasin, among Gulmarg’s most senior ski trainers, notes that the ski grounds would typically be teeming by now. “But it’s desolate,” he remarks. “All we can do is anticipate snow, and if not, we just wait.”
Pony workers waiting for tourists in Gulmarg [Faisal Bashir/Al Jazeera]
This year, Indian-administered Kashmir, incorporating the Ladakh region, is experiencing extraordinary aridity this winter, impacting both plains and higher elevations in the Western Himalayas.
Here, the economy is heavily reliant on tourism, contributing 7 percent to the region’s GDP. Government data reveal a tally of 16.8 million visitors to the valley up to September 2023, a modest dip from the 19 million arrivals in 2022 – a revival year for tourism in the contested area, also claimed by Pakistan.
Tourism underwent a harsh blow in 2019 when New Delhi withdrew the region’s special autonomy, followed by extensive security lockdowns—closely succeeded by the COVID-19 pandemic and additional restrictions, disrupting lives and livelihoods.
Yet the current lack of snow strikes another blow, harboring fears of yet another futile year for those like ski instructors, hoteliers, guides, and many others in the services sector.
“This was to be my first experience of Kashmir, and the lack of snow is frankly disillusioning,” shares Muhammad Suhail, a tourist. “We had prepaid for our accommodation and other services; else, we might have dropped the visit.”
Hotel cancellations have been rampant as a result.
“Around 30 percent of reservations have been retracted, and the figure keeps climbing,” discloses Aijaz Bhat, a hotel manager in Gulmarg, whose guests are cutting their stays short.
ATVs and snow bikes idle on their stands in Gulmarg [Faisal Bashir/Al Jazeera]
A ‘Snowless, Brown Land’
Pony rides, a prime tourist lure, are now a source of distress for handlers, as Bashir Ahmad, 45, explains: “We might not earn even $2 a day. Disenchanted, tourists turn back at the sight of the verdure, expecting the wintry white.”
Meteorologists have envisaged dry conditions lasting until January 24. If such a dry spell extends, it casts doubt on the feasibility of India’s annual winter sports, typically hosted in Gulmarg come early February.
“Winter tourism in Gulmarg thrives on these national games. A protracted situation could see them canceled this year,” asserts Ghulam Nabi Lone, head of the local traders’ association.
Residents blame insufficient local governance in pollution control for the diminishing snowfall, particularly in environmentally sensitive spots like Gulmarg.
“In my memory, Gulmarg has never been this bare,” says Tariq Ahmad, leading the pony workers’ group. “Deforestation and waste disposal are unmonitored.”
Waste cluttering a forest area in Gulmarg [Faisal Bashir/Al Jazeera]
Fear of a Water Shortage
Specialists, including environmentalist Anjal Prakash, caution that unchecked tourism possibly exacerbates pollution, thereby accelerating climate shifts in the Himalayas: “A surge in visitors often means depleted resources, excessive waste, and soaring carbon footprints, damaging local habitats and amplifying global warming.”
Raja Wasim, CEO of the Gulmarg Development Authority, recognizes sustainable tourism as their goal but indicates it requires a stepped approach. “Reforms and regulations will unfold over time,” he assures.
Despite the snow scarcity, Wasim refutes any significant downturn in tourism, albeit conceding some lodging and skiing cancellations.
Experts warn that climate disturbances may be reshaping customary weather patterns, influencing snowfall in the higher Himalayas.
“The Himalayas are enduring climate change repercussions, such as glacial retreat and altered snowfall tendencies,” Prakash explains, mentioning factors like increased temperatures, dwindling glaciers, and shifting atmospheric currents as contributors to the declining snowfall.
“These shifts pose dire threats to water resources, agriculture, and ecosystem wellness. The local populace now faces amplified vulnerability to ecological disasters and resource scarcities, posing socioeconomic strife.”
Geologist Shakil Romshoo forecasts that the current scant snowfall could result in a water crisis later in the year, impacting summer water supplies crucial for the region’s paddy cultivation. He ominously notes that should the trend endure, the implications will go far beyond this year’s winter tourism, predicting graver troubles ahead.
