The strategic analysis site Stratfor has commented on the escalating retaliation attacks along the Israel-Lebanon border. Despite a comprehensive invasion of Lebanon being unlikely, Israel is considering escalatory measures in the forthcoming weeks, involving a stronger stance against Hezbollah within Lebanon, potentially leading to the risk of a protracted multi-front war for Israel.
Stratfor highlighted recent threats by Israeli politicians to conduct a widescale military response to Hezbollah and pointed to a concerning statement made by the head of the Israel Defense Forces, General Herzi Halevi, on January 10th. General Halevi informed the Israeli forces that the government would position them as necessary to secure the northern borders.
The intelligence forecast website also noted a warning issued by the Israeli Ministry of Health to hospitals in northern Israel to prepare for the reception of large numbers of casualties. The hospitals were also instructed to plan for potential medical supply disruptions in case of an extensive Hezbollah assault.
Adding to the analysis, Stratfor mentioned the recent escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, which saw Israel target more of the party’s senior military leaders and assassinate leaders of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in Lebanon. Hezbollah retaliated by attempting to strike strategic Israeli military targets.
The site opined that Israel’s ongoing military strategy is to employ targeted escalations to pressure Hezbollah to withdraw from the borders.
If the current military strategy fails to establish a viable buffer zone, Israel is likely to escalate its larger attacks on Hezbollah’s military infrastructure further, including sustained ground raids and deeper strikes beyond the southern border region.
Should these wider attacks fail, Israel might employ battalion-level ground incursions into southern Lebanon to “clear and control the territory from militants,” indicating a potential escalation to a full-scale invasion.
Stratfor concluded that while Israel does have the option to repeat a comprehensive invasion, similar to its post-conflict operations in Gaza, such a course of action is likely to elicit a direct Iranian retaliation against Israel, making it an improbable scenario.
Ultimately, Israel may only consider this option if it receives full diplomatic support from the United States, completes its key military objectives in Gaza, has domestic political unity and backing for the operation, and if Hezbollah escalates attacks to levels that include strikes on Israeli cities, making the threat too significant to ignore.
