Italy is experiencing what appears to be a chilling long-term demographic winter, as the birthrate in 2022 dropped below 400,000 for the first time since the country’s unification in 1861, compared to nearly 700,000 deaths in the same year.
Italy’s National Institute of Statistics has raised the alarm in its latest report, pointing to a continuing decline in the overall population over the years. The number of people over 65 has surpassed those under the age of 25, a trend that is expected to have negative implications for the Italian economy.
In this context, Matteo Villa, a researcher at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, told Al Jazeera Net that “Italy is losing tens of thousands of residents annually and we are seeing a steady increase in the average age. Consequently, there is a rise in the number of people retiring and needing more medical care.”
He added that the state will be increasingly forced to allocate resources to support the elderly, leaving fewer resources available for investment in productivity, employment growth, and development.
Professor Alessandro Rosina, a demography expert at the Catholic University of Milan, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, observed that public spending on pensions, care, and assistance for those over 65 is growing. In contrast, the demographic component that generates wealth, development, and innovation, and sustains the social care system, is diminishing.
Rosina also emphasized that the economic growth slowdown in Italy might lead to increased public debt, exacerbating the fragility and inequality among various social groups.
Italy is witnessing a decline in fertility rates as the average lifespan increases (Shutterstock)
Declining Fertility
The Italian statistical report also highlighted the drop in fertility rates among Italian women to historic lows in 2022, reaching 1.24 children per woman. The age at which Italian women are having their first child is now the highest in Europe, at 31.6 years.
The report also noted a decrease in the number of births to at least one foreign parent, with 82,216 births in 2022, accounting for 20.9% of the total births in the country.
Demographer Rosina states that “the fertility rate among immigrant women in Italy remains significantly higher than that of Italian women, despite the fact that it is decreasing.”
Rosina observed that many migrant families, including Arab and Muslim ones, tend to have fewer children compared to their countries of origin in order to invest more in their children’s education and social success.
Yassin Lafram, head of the Union of Islamic Communities in Italy, believes the decline in births among Arabs and Muslims in Italy is due to their adaptation to the Italian lifestyle. This indicates greater integration into society compared to previous years.
Lafram highlighted that the main challenge for young Muslims in establishing new families is housing affordability, compounded by the high cost of living prevalent in the country. He pointed out another issue related to the increasing average age of Muslim women in Italy, many of whom have passed the age of fertility, rendering them unable to have more children.
Government Measures
Since taking office as Prime Minister in late 2022, Giorgia Meloni has focused on addressing Italy’s demographic challenges. Her right-wing government has made family issues a priority.
Meloni has repeatedly called for enhancing employment opportunities for women, pointing out that security in this regard will ensure generational renewal.
The Italian government recently enacted a package of measures to achieve a new demographic balance, allocating €2.5 billion to increase and subsidize qualified child care facilities, as well as to provide tax relief for working mothers with at least two children (up to 10 years old).
Villa believes that “allocating only €2.5 billion is unlikely to have a significant impact, especially when considered that this amount will be spent over two years and the state’s budget is €870 billion.”
Professor Rosina finds Meloni’s assertion that demographic crises are her top priority to be a positive message, but cautions that “urgent, additional investments are needed to enhance the autonomy of young people and enable them to find housing and employment to form new families.”
The Italian government decides on measures aimed at achieving demographic balance (Shutterstock)
Immigration and Policy Contradictions
Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister and leader of the right-wing Brothers of Italy party, has historically demonized immigrants in Italy. In her electoral campaigns, she consistently voiced plans to halt the flow of immigrants, even suggesting a naval blockade of the Mediterranean’s southern shore.
However, facing the chronic issue of demographic decline and warnings from factory and company owners in Northern Italy, who stress that the ongoing labor shortages will likely lead to closures, Meloni has recently pledged to allow the legal entry of 450,000 new immigrants.
Villa remarks on this surprising move, “This promise has now become law after the government recently approved a new decree on migrant inflows, permitting the entry of 136,000 non-EU immigrants in 2024 – a significant increase from the annual entry of 31,000 between 2015 and 2023.”
Such decisions will present Meloni’s right-wing government with a profound paradox. On one hand, her voters who subscribe to the “great replacement” theory may feel betrayed. On the other hand, the government must contend with reality, which practically means opening the doors widely to foreign workers.
