In the upcoming spring, Senegalese citizens will engage in their twelfth presidential elections since independence, tasked with choosing the fifth president of a country known for its political stability and absence of military coups despite their prevalence in the surrounding region.
Following months of judicial battles, Senegal’s Constitutional Council has announced a slate of 20 candidates qualified to run for the presidency.
On February 25th, voters will head to the polls to select their fifth president from candidates with diverse political backgrounds and priorities.
The presidential elections in Senegal are garnering widespread regional and international attention as West Africa navigates through politically complex times. Noteworthy developments include a distancing from France, military alignment towards Russia, and economic partnerships with China and Turkey.
The Outgoing President
Senegal represents the most enduring and credible model of Western African democracy over six decades of post-independence political life. However, this upcoming election marks the first time an incumbent president is not participating.
Abdulrahman Mubarak, an African Affairs researcher with Al Jazeera Network, observed in an article for Al Jazeera Centre for Studies that the defeat of former presidents Abdou Diouf in 2000 and Abdoulaye Wade in 2012 convinced the current President Macky Sall to forego seeking a third term. However, Sall seems to have only been partially convinced to step down from power, for he has nominated his Prime Minister, Amadou Ba, to run for the presidency. Mubarak emphasizes that it is now up to the Senegalese to ensure that the incoming president is dissuaded from appointing their successor.
Exclusion of the Opposition Leader
This election also stands out because of the exclusion of the young opposition leader, Ousmane Sonko, who is currently imprisoned, along with Karim Wade, the former president’s son.
Sonko is a popular opposition politician among the youth, and legal proceedings against him since 2021 have caused tension in Senegal’s political life, leading to several rounds of violent unrest.
Sonko’s supporters have previously initiated widespread riots in the capital Dakar, resulting in casualties and injuries following his incarceration in June 2023. The tension surrounding his exclusion anticipates a politically charged atmosphere for the elections.
Karim Wade, a former minister and son of former President Abdoulaye Wade (2000-2012), was not listed as a candidate due to his dual French and Senegalese citizenship, whereas the Senegalese constitution dictates that presidential candidates must solely possess Senegalese nationality.
The election campaign will begin on February 4th, and observers believe these multi-candidate elections are unlikely to be decided in the first round due to the ruling party’s weakness and the lack of unity within the opposition.
Here is an overview of some of the prominent candidates:
Amadou Ba
He is the candidate from the ruling political coalition, the Alliance for the Republic party, and affiliated political blocks. At 62, Ba is one of President Macky Sall’s close allies and hails from the Fulani tribe along the Senegal River banks.
Ba, with vast experience having held significant ministerial positions such as those of economics, finance, and foreign affairs, later became the Prime Minister tasked with forming and leading the government in 2022.
With widespread popularity in Dakar and the river region inhabited by the Fulani tribes, Ba also has good relations with some influential Sufi orders within the political scene.
Internationally, Ba boasts vast political ties, especially with Paris, his past roles as Minister of Foreign Affairs and Prime Minister helping him build relationships with various international stakeholders.
Despite a strong presence and government backing, Ba faces challenges, not least the declining popularity of the government, which in the 2022 legislative elections failed to achieve an outright majority with just 82 seats out of 165.
Critics also perceive Ba as an extension of President Sall, whose public disapproval prevented him from entering the presidential race despite constitutional interpretations in his favor.
Idrissa Seck
The 64-year-old Idrissa Seck is deemed one of the “old generation” candidates. A former prime minister and leader of the “Rewmi” party, Seck was the runner-up in the 2019 presidential elections.
His wide-ranging experience encompasses government circles and the private sector, and he enjoys good relations with various Sufi orders. From 2002 to 2004, Seck served as prime minister under President Abdoulaye Wade.
Seck’s popularity is particularly strong in Thies, Senegal’s second-largest city where he once served as mayor, and he is affiliated with the influential Touba Sufi order.
Seck’s commitment to align with the ruling government came into focus after securing the second position in the 2019 elections and subsequently joining President Sall’s government team. He was appointed as the head of the Economic and Social Council.
His alignment with the ruling bloc has led to a crisis of trust with voters, some of whom have shifted their support to opposition leader Ousmane Sonko.
Khalifa Sall
The 67-year-old presidential candidate Khalifa Sall was elected Mayor of Dakar in 2014 and twice served as a Minister of the Republic. He has past experience as a consultant for the World Bank and United Nations agencies within Africa, boasting connections with economic donors.
He has been elected multiple times to the Senegalese Parliament and has a significant influence on the Socialist Party, the ruling party under former Presidents Senghor and Abdou Diouf.
In 2019, Sall was convicted of corruption and embezzlement of public funds by the General State Inspectorate, resulting in a five-year prison sentence, tarnishing his reputation among voters drawn to anti-corruption rhetoric.
Basirou Dioumaï Faye
At age 42, Basirou Dioumaï Faye stands as the alternative opposition candidate, holding a Master’s in Law from Cheikh Anta Diop University and working as a financial auditor and head of the litigation department in the financial legislation administration.
Identified as a fighter from the defunct opposition party “Pastef,” he submitted his candidacy as a potential substitute for leader Sonko if rejected by the Constitutional Council, which indeed happened.
On January 19th, the opposition bloc announced having an alternative plan should Sonko’s candidacy be rejected, with Basirou emerging as central to this plan. It is expected that candidate Habib Sy may withdraw in his favor, as both are from the ranks of the Pastef party.
Imprisoned since April 2023 for defaming the judiciary after criticizing Sonko’s arrest procedure on social media, Basirou’s incarceration has garnered substantial sympathy among the educated elite who champion freedom of speech.
The popularity of the Pastef party, primarily among youth and impoverished classes, is presumed to have risen significantly since 2019, placing third in the presidential elections, aligning with revolutionary ideas advocating for a departure from traditional political regimes echoed by leaders of West African coups.
Yet Basirou faces significant challenges, notably a lack of business figures vital for election funding and minimal political experience.
The Decisive Round
Among the approved candidate list by the Constitutional Council are individuals with limited influence whose presence would disperse votes away from more likely candidates, making an outright win in the first round improbable.
Among the influential candidates is former Prime Minister Aminata Touré, who enjoys good relationships within the ruling party but diverged with President Sall in 2022 following her by-passed candidacy for parliament speaker.
Also approved by the Constitutional Council for candidacy with moderate impact is former Prime Minister Abdoulaye Dionne.
The 2024 elections occur amidst significant gas discoveries beginning to be exported this year – a development foreign investors and companies are keen to see supported by Senegal’s historically sustained political stability.
