Climate Change and Its Impact on Conflict in Africa
Climate change and its ramifications have been at the top of African priorities in recent years. Despite the continent’s contribution to the global greenhouse gas emissions being around 4%, Africa is categorized as one of the most affected regions by the catastrophic effects of climate change.
Incidents such as floods, hurricanes, and disrupted rainfall patterns have devastated ecosystems and endangered the livelihoods of communities that depend on them. These occurrences open the door to “climate wars” and conflicts over dwindling resources.
Some researchers link the economic hardships resulting from the loss of livelihoods due to severe climate changes, such as floods, desertification, and soil erosion, with the increase in violent conflicts in many areas of the continent. The rapid and severe environmental deterioration does not provide populations with the opportunity to adapt to the new reality, leaving them vulnerable in the face of constantly declining economic and living conditions.
According to a research paper issued by several institutions, including the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, these rapid and severe changes lead to increased tensions and local conflicts over limited resources. The exacerbation of poverty and unemployment due to the destruction of resources forces affected individuals to seek livelihoods by any means necessary, creating fertile ground for organized crime, violence, and joining profitable armed groups.
A study conducted by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute highlights Lake Chad in West Africa as a significant example. The immense shrinking of the lake, which is a source of livelihood for 30 million farmers and fishermen, has turned the surrounding area into an ideal recruitment ground for armed groups such as Boko Haram. This has led to the expansion of their activities within the countries bordering the lake, namely Niger, Nigeria, Chad, and Cameroon.
The dangers of these transformations lie in the establishment of an “economic system” based on violence as a means of livelihood, paving the way for complex interactions that unleash continuous cycles of violence and counter-violence. Over the past years, the security situation in the region has deteriorated, with Nigeria and Niger being ranked among the ten most disturbed countries globally, while Cameroon and Chad ranked 11th and 19th, respectively.
Conflicts Between Herders and Farmers
The African continent is home to 37% of the world’s pastoralists, with the Sahel region alone estimated to host between 12 and 22 million individuals. These pastoral communities are among the most vulnerable to climate changes. Unprecedented drought in the Sahel region led to the death of over 13 million livestock from 2020 to 2022 due to water and forage scarcity, resulting in not only the loss of their source of income but also their primary means of livelihood, as stated by Cyril Ferrand, leader of the resilience team for East Africa at the Food and Agriculture Organization.
Migration in search of pastures is foundational to the lives of these pastoralists, governed by traditional paths and understandings with local communities built over the years. This significantly mitigates the likelihood of conflict between inhabitants of pasture-rich areas and migrating herders.
Research on climate change and violent conflicts in East Africa reveals that the continuous drought forces herders to alter their traditional paths and move their livestock to new areas with suitable grazing conditions, bringing them into contact with new communities. The lack of shared mechanisms for cohabitation and conflict resolution leads to violent conflicts arising from competition for common resources.
The scarcity of rainfall in Sudan’s South Kordofan region triggered an environmental crisis that compelled nomadic groups to move southward, leading to increased conflict with farmers in the region.
Increasing Migration Rates
Migration and internal displacement are natural responses to complex humanitarian situations, such as the consequences of climate change. Diminishing resources force populations to move to areas with more favorable living conditions. Heavy rains and floods have compelled many individuals to repeatedly displace in countries like Somalia, Sudan, and Niger.
A report by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre revealed that the number of internally displaced persons due to environmental disasters in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022 reached 7.4 million, tripling the previous year’s figure, which was less than 1.6 million in 2013.
Professor Alexander de Juan’s study published in 2015 indicated that areas with increased migration and displacement rates face heightened risks of resource-related conflicts, often escalating to violent clashes due to the absence of common conflict resolution institutions and greater predisposition to violence.
Environmental Changes and Other Factors
While skepticism exists among some researchers regarding the direct link between climate change and conflicts, many recent studies have documented how the fallout from these changes interacts with other factors intertwined with chronic problems and structural imbalances faced by African nations.
Many African countries suffer from a mix of problems, encompassing limited or unequal access to natural resources, social tensions on different grounds, poverty, economic inequality, weak state institutions’ capability to provide security, political and administrative corruption, ineffective governance, and lack of trust in state authority and legitimacy. These confluences have rendered states unable to devise suitable plans and strategies to adapt to the severe repercussions of climate change and provide the necessary tools for citizens to overcome these challenges, creating a fertile environment for turning these challenges into incentives for resorting to violence.
While climate-induced migration alone may not explain the outbreak of conflicts in specific regions, when coupled with poor governance, institutional corruption, fragile security, and social tensions, it constitutes an active contributor to this mix that generates conflicts.
Fanning the Flames of Violence
One indirect consequence of climate change on violent conflicts is the exploitation of low-intensity local conflicts by elites who escalate them to serve their self-interests, making the fanning of violence an effective means to rid themselves of opponents and ensuring sustained support from affected groups.
The presence of social structures such as tribes and clans, ready to mobilize due to resource tensions, plays a pivotal role in this exploitation. Several studies have indicated that three-quarters of all community conflicts in Africa between 1989 and 2011 featured land as an important source of contention.
Local elites collaborate with politicians and state officials, deepening and intensifying communal conflicts by supporting one party at the expense of the other.
A 1998 paper in the American “International Security” journal noted links between resource scarcity, communal conflicts, and national elites in Kenya. The regime of former President Daniel Arap Moi manipulated racial violence in the early 1990s by inciting conflict between pastoral communities and farmers from other racial groups who moved into traditional pastoral lands, exploiting grievances related to the sharp decrease in arable land.
In conclusion, although some researchers might question the direct correlation between climate change and conflicts, a convergence of evidence indicates climate change’s substantial impact on violent conflicts in Africa. The interplay of climate-related challenges with existing vulnerabilities and imbalances in African societies has significantly deepened the complex social and political problems faced by the continent.
