After more than eleven years since his last visit, Cairo is eagerly anticipating the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in mid-November, as announced by several news agencies citing Turkish sources.
His last visit was in November 2012, where he met the former Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi and delivered a famous speech at Cairo University. He also made a similar visit in September 2011 as the Prime Minister and met with the then ruling military council head, Field Marshal Tantawi.
The upcoming visit comes after years of political estrangement before relations began to improve, with the two presidents meeting twice already: during the opening of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, and on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in the Indian capital, New Delhi, last September.
The visit occurs amid extremely delicate and sensitive conditions in the region. It is expected that urgent regional issues will take precedence in discussions, especially in the context of the current involvement of the two countries in resolving the region’s problems, which fail to match their significant geostrategic potentials. One of the leading causes of chaos in the region arises from the lack of coordination between Cairo and Ankara.
Gaza Aggression
It’s natural that discussions between Erdogan and President Sisi will focus on the brutal Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip. Both countries have significant leverage to halt the onslaught and deliver humanitarian aid to the region. Their control over crucial maritime passages, including the Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Bosporus Strait, as well as their presence in strategic seas, gives them substantial influence in the region. Additionally, both countries possess powerful militaries and have strong presences in various international and regional organizations, such as NATO, the Turkish Council of Ministers, the Arab League, and the African Union.
Collaboration between the two countries could play a crucial role in ending the aggression, which has lasted nearly four months, resulting in the deaths and injuries of tens of thousands and widespread destruction in Gaza, calling for the internal restructuring of Palestinian governance and the establishment of a Palestinian state within the borders preceding June 5, 1967.
Sudanese Arena
The absence of both countries from the Sudanese arena since the outbreak of the conflict between the military and the Rapid Support Forces in April last year has allowed the expansion of regional forces at the expense of Sudan’s security and stability, leading to a security chaos and a humanitarian catastrophe resulting in the displacement of millions of Sudanese.
Egypt and Turkey’s strong influence in Khartoum enables them to play an effective role in halting this deterioration and preventing regional interference at the expense of Sudan’s resources.
Somali Affairs
In January, the President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud, visited Cairo and discussed Ethiopian threats following the memorandum of understanding between Addis Ababa and the so-called “Republic of Azania” separatist administration, paving the way for the establishment of an Ethiopian military base and the leasing of the port of Berbera on the Red Sea for fifty years.
Turkey, in particular, has a strong presence in the conflicted countries. It boasts a significant military base in Somalia, dedicated to training and rehabilitating Somali military personnel, in addition to its exceptional economic and energy relations with both countries.
On the Ethiopian side, Ankara is committed to a common defense agreement with Addis Ababa and half of Turkey’s investments in Africa are concentrated in Ethiopia alone.
Cooperation between Cairo and Ankara could lead to resolving tensions in Somalia and preventing its division, which holds significant geostrategic repercussions on the national security of both countries in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb region.
Reunification of Libya
Egypt and Turkey’s relations face a new phase with Erdogan’s expected visit, presenting a suitable opportunity to discuss the Libyan file and pave the way for ending the division.
Egypt’s concern about Turkey’s growing influence in Libya has diminished, especially with the normalization of Turkish-Emirati relations and the diminishing competition between the two countries for Libyan territories.
The maritime border demarcation agreement between Turkey and Libya provides Egypt with an additional ten thousand kilometers beyond the area granted to it under the border demarcation agreement with Greece and the administration of southern Cyprus. Further dialogue between the two parties may resolve the situation in Libya towards ending the division and restoring unity.
Maritime Border Demarcation
It is estimated that the first file to be prominent in the discussions between the two presidents regarding their bilateral relations is the maritime border demarcation, which Ankara assigns utmost importance in addressing the geostrategic distortions resulting from the collapse of the Ottoman state. Turkey, despite having the longest coastline in the eastern Mediterranean, has been deprived of maritime zones with Greece and the European support for limiting Turkish influence in the eastern Mediterranean.
The maritime border demarcation agreement with Libya was one of the steps taken by Turkey to resolve the crisis, but a similar demarcation with Egypt remains a topic of deep discussion between the two countries.
Despite the prolonged strained political relations over almost a decade, it has not impacted the continuation of economic relations between the two countries, albeit falling short of what is expected between two countries of the size of Turkey and Egypt.
Thus, Erdogan’s expected visit is anticipated to give a robust thrust to economic relations, with both countries aiming to increase bilateral trade to $15 billion over the next five years. It is worth noting that over 700 Turkish companies operate in Egypt with investments reaching $2.5 billion.
Ultimately, this anticipated visit must transcend the past and lead to the inauguration of strategic cooperation between the two parties to halt the region’s immense suffering.
