Jakarta- The ruling National Security and Defense Council in Myanmar has extended the state of emergency for another 6 months, delaying any elections as the army promised to hold them after its coup on this day in 2021 and nullifying the results of the November 2020 elections, which were won by the National League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi, while the party representing the military declined.
The army’s electoral prospects have been gradually declining since 2010 over 4 election seasons, culminating in the overthrow of the last elected parliament on February 1, three years ago, leaving behind a minimal democratic margin.
Opponents have called on citizens to strike throughout Thursday and refrain from leaving their homes and shops to demonstrate a silent rejection of military rule.
One of the strike coordinators stated that one of the goals is to demand the international community to halt the sale of necessary fuel for weapons, aircraft, and military equipment to Myanmar in its war against the armed opposition, and secondly to remind citizens of civil disobedience by not paying any taxes to the military government.
Thousands of soldiers have defected from the Myanmar Army and joined the armed opposition (opposition accounts)
Humanitarian Cost
According to a statement by the strike coordination, which includes 73 anti-coup organizations, the strike is a call for every soldier in the army to defect from their leadership and preserve their lives and the lives of their fellow citizens instead of dying in defense of the army’s leaders.
After 3 years of the recent military rule, the humanitarian cost has become steep. According to the Association of Political Prisoners’ League, as of January 30, 2024, the army had detained 25,915 civilians and killed 4,453 others. However, this list does not include many who were killed in border states according to other opponents, as sources speak of multiples of that figure.
According to the “Armed Conflict Locations and Events Dataset,” the situation in Gaza has made Palestine the most dangerous place on the conflict index, followed by Myanmar and then Syria.
The military rule in Myanmar is facing an increasing challenge as armed opposition movements representing various nationalities and minorities make unprecedented advances from the border regions towards the heart of the country in what has become known as the “Spring Revolution.”
Stronger Opposition Position
Field opposition leaders believe they are in a stronger position than they were 3 years ago, and some speak optimistically of future political change, broad-based with the aim of making Myanmar a federal or federated state where minorities have rights to self-governance in their regions.
The opposition’s National Unity Government – a political front representing the opposition – estimates that 60% of Myanmar’s territory is under the control of armed opposition movements, and most of these areas are under the control of movements representing ethnic groups or minorities in their homeland, alongside those who began by protesting and then turned to military action in the central regions, becoming part of what is known as the “People’s Defense Forces.”
Fighting today is taking place against the military government in 12 out of 14 states and regions in the country, and among these armed movements is the “Brotherhood Alliance” representing the Kachin, Chin, Karen, and Rakhine ethnic groups, which are Christian and Buddhist nationalities. They launched a wide-ranging military campaign named “Operation 1027” in October of last year, resulting in the capture of many military sites, leading to an increase in the number of soldiers and officers defecting from their government.
According to Dr. Sasa, Minister of International Cooperation in the opposition’s National Unity Government, 18,000 soldiers have defected or surrendered since the 2021 coup, while others estimated the number to be around 10,000 soldiers, officers, and policemen.
Among the armed opposition movements is the “Arakan Army,” representing the Rakhine Buddhist nationality in Arakan (Rakhine) in the west of the country, where this army has taken control of about 160 points, military sites, and two towns.
Riot control forces in Myanmar suppress protesters against the military coup (European)
Forgotten Tragedy
Reports from the “Rohingya Human Rights Initiative” indicate that the Rohingya population has been caught in the crossfire between the army and the Arakan Army opposition, resulting in the deaths and injuries of hundreds and the displacement of thousands in recent weeks.
On the eve of the third anniversary of the coup, Volker Turk, the UN Commissioner for Human Rights, stated in a press release that “amid all the crises around the world, it is important not to forget the long-suffering people of Myanmar,” pointing out that the fighting between the army and armed opposition movements has resulted in the displacement of a large number of civilians and the deaths of thousands due to aerial and artillery bombardment.
According to the UN Commissioner, out of about 26,000 people who have been detained, about 20,000 are still in prison, and 1,576 have died while in custody over the past 3 years.
According to the UN statement, “the army’s tactics focus on punishing civilians, as they are seen as supporting the enemy… thus, the army has continued to target civilians and all protected targets under international humanitarian law, such as health institutions and schools,” pointing to the deteriorating humanitarian situation in the Arakan state which has affected the Rohingya Muslim minority due to confrontations between the Arakan Army for the Rakhine nationality and the Myanmar military.
Turk urged the international community to take appropriate steps to address the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, including targeted sanctions imposed on the military to reduce their ability to engage in human rights violations, and limits on their access to weapons, aircraft fuel, and foreign currencies.
Military Bypassing Sanctions
The UN official’s statement coincides with an investigation published by Amnesty International yesterday, on the eve of the coup’s anniversary, revealing through satellite imagery and navigation data that the Myanmar military is still obtaining fuel for its military aircraft despite US and European sanctions imposed on them, through middlemen with fuel-exporting countries, and the organization documented 7 maritime shipments linked to fuel storage in Vietnam, making 2023 worse than the previous two years in this regard.
In addition to all this, the impact of the internal war on the country’s economic situation has led to economic constriction, decline in exports, the closure of hundreds of factories and companies, a drop in the value of the local currency, and an increase in poverty and unemployment levels affecting over half of the population according to a report by the World Bank.
The deteriorating security and humanitarian situation in the country, alongside the failing economy, has led 1.5 million people from various ethnic groups in numerous states to internal displacement over the past three years, according to UN sources, in addition to the asylum of another 70,000 people in neighboring countries such as Thailand.
