Nouakchott – Three decades ago, with the start of the democratic process in Mauritania and the allowance of political pluralism in 1991, Mauritanian opposition formed a united front for change, comprising various political movements: leftist, Islamic, nationalist, and human rights groups opposed to then-President Maaouya Ould Sid’Ahmed Taya.
At that time, Ahmed Ould Daddah (81 years old) was the prominent opposition candidate challenging President Taya, while Messoud Ould Boulkheir (80 years old) was the staunchest opponent of the president’s policies.
Since then, the opposition’s trajectory of ascension began, engaging in fierce confrontations with successive regimes over three decades, each election a pivotal moment.
However, this time, it seems that the vigor is waning. With the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for mid-this year, the ruling regime may not sense competition due to the contagion of withdrawals sweeping through opposition parties since Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani assumed power.
The recent period has witnessed repeated withdrawals of prominent leaders and former elected officials from the “Tawassoul” party, leading the opposition institution for the third consecutive time.
The recent parliamentary elections dealt a severe blow to traditional opposition parties that suffered from the phenomenon of withdrawals. However, the exacerbation of this phenomenon within the opposition ranks recently, particularly in “Tawassoul,” raises questions about the future of what remains of the opposition under the current regime seeking to embrace and absorb it.
Consecutive Withdrawals
Although the spark of withdrawals encompassed all spectra of the opposition, “Tawassoul” bore the most resonance, perhaps due to its cohesive nature.
The wave of withdrawals began during the term of the former president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, with the most notable in 2019 before the current Mauritanian president’s election. Factions of the Mauritanian opposition emerged in support of the “National Consensus” candidate, including the “Rachidou” movement that withdrew from the “Tawassoul” party, led by the former sheikh Omar El Foutah, alongside several party leaders who withdrew.
However, the most severe blow to the party with an Islamic orientation came in late 2023 when the founder and former president of the party for two terms, Mohamed Jamil Mansour, resigned from the party due to what he referred to as “major imbalances and clear errors that I have repeatedly pointed out but have not been corrected.”
The resignations continued shortly after his withdrawal as the former financial secretary in the executive committee and former parliamentary deputy from the Tanitane constituency, Mohamed Mukhtar Ould El Taleb Nafi, resigned, followed by the secretary of legal affairs Dr. Sidi Abba Ali, the head of the youth council Othman Voudy Marika, and others.
In his interview with Al Jazeera Net, Dr. Mohamed Al-Amin Ould Shaib, a member of the political bureau of the “Tawassoul” party, stated that “these withdrawals are not exceptional in the local political scene, as the ruling party witnessed a wave of withdrawals during the nomination crisis and others, and we have seen withdrawals from one party to another in many cases.”
Ould Shaib attributes the reasons behind the “political migration” partly to the policies adopted by the ruling regimes at various stages, their relentless efforts to control and manipulate the political landscape according to their agenda, and their continuous strive to influence anyone opposing them through various means. Some of these withdrawals necessitate the routine process of reviewing positions and orientations.
Successive Withdrawals from the Tawassoul Party following Jamil Mansour’s withdrawal as former party president (Social Media)
A New Trend
Months after withdrawing from “Tawassoul,” Mohamed Jamil Mansour announced the founding of the “For the Nation” movement, a project of a party comprising diverse personalities from various intellectual schools, entities, and races. Mansour affirmed that his movement has taken a stance in support of the president in the upcoming elections.
This movement stirred significant controversy, with some even considering it an existential threat to the opposition, especially “Tawassoul.” Despite the latter’s assurance that these withdrawals are individual and will not harm their party, Dr. Didi Ould Salleck, president of the Maghreb Center for Studies, speculated that “this new movement aims to eliminate Tawassoul, not the opposition because it is already dead (…), or as if the regime intends to use this movement to kill Tawassoul or create an entity to absorb its strength and momentum, or to weaken it until it becomes feeble.”
Ould Salleck added to Al Jazeera Net that “the authorities have always tempted opposition leaders and figures to join the regime, leaving the young bodies to flounder without a head, which has weakened political life in Mauritania and the elites, frustrating the society from supporting the opposition.”
Dr. Mohamed Al-Amin Ould Shaib mentioned that they in “Tawassoul” and in the opposition, in general, do not oppose any new political formations, asserting that “the political field accommodates everyone.”
He further told Al Jazeera Net, “A significant percentage of the members of the new movement are originally regime supporters, activists in political formations (parties or initiatives) from the majority circle, including important leaders from the ruling party, and of course, vital leaders from Tawassoul have withdrawn. However, the focus on Tawassoul leaders only, without other leaders, is surprising.”
Power Temptation
While the migration of opposition defectors to the loyalist camp is not new, some loyalists believe the primary reason is the political calm adopted by the current president since assuming power, which was not available in previous periods.
At various times, regimes starting from Taya, passing through Abdel Aziz, have worked to entice opposition members to dismantle it.
Dr. Ould Salleck interprets the unity of defectors towards the authority due to two reasons:
Firstly, the military regimes’ approach since the distorted democratic beginning of Taya to the present day, persisting in tempting opposition leaders, working to dismantle and kill them.
Secondly, opposition parties are persecuted due to their circumstances, the weakness of their means, their siege by the regimes, the starving of their elements, and the weakness of their social nurturing.
The Opposition’s Horizon?
In addition to facing wide criticism in the Mauritanian street due to its truce with the regime over the years, observers believe the opposition will suffer in the upcoming elections following these qualitative withdrawals and the formation of movements emanating from it supportive of the current regime.
However, Dr. Ould Shaib believes that “the new movement will not have a significant impact because most of its members were originally from the majority circle and voted for the current president.”
Dr. Didi Ould Salleck sees no prospect for the opposition in the upcoming elections; “due to its current situation and the prevailing despair in the political and societal circles,” and believes that unless the governance mechanisms in Mauritania and the mechanisms for managing the political process change, there is no hope for a person not endorsed by the authority to succeed, given the society’s weakness and the authority’s dominance.
