It is very difficult to find disagreement among Germans regarding the declining popularity of the current Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The man who succeeded Angela Merkel has failed to convince the Germans that he deserves to lead Europe’s strongest economy. If parliamentary elections were held these days, his party would easily lose the first place. The latest opinion poll by the Forsa Institute, published at the end of January, placed his party in third position, two percentage points behind the fourth-place holder.
Scholz is described as having a cold demeanor, to the extent that he is labeled “Scholzomat,” a play on his name with the word “automatic” added. He lacks the talent for rhetoric, and his speeches generally do not attract much attention. Some consider him the most boring chancellor in modern German history.
However, the criticism does not stop at his personality. His performance has also been targeted, as he struggles to maintain a government plagued by internal conflicts and attempts to convince a public skeptical about the government’s efficiency and its chancellor.
Not Like Merkel
Comparing Scholz to the former Chancellor Merkel is very challenging. It was expected that the satisfaction with him would not reach the level enjoyed by his predecessor, who continued in the Chancellor’s office for 16 years, becoming a trademark of Germany due to her experience, policies, and communication style, as well as her ability to navigate the crises that the country faced.
Scholz has not fulfilled many of his promises, and his experience in government did not benefit him. He previously served as Merkel’s deputy and finance minister in her last government. He also served as the Minister of Labor and Social Affairs in the first government led by the “Iron Lady,” Angela Merkel, and was more famous for being elected mayor of Hamburg.
Scholz owes his candidacy for the Social Democratic Party’s victory in the 2021 parliamentary elections to two fundamental factors. Firstly, he benefitted from the weakness of his competitors, especially from the candidate of the conservative Christian Alliance (to which Merkel belonged), Armin Laschet, who made several mistakes, including laughing during the floods that hit western Germany and his involvement in a literary plagiarism scandal.
The other reason for Scholz’s election is his effective policy as Finance Minister during the pandemic, providing financial support to those affected by the crisis. Germany witnessed rapid economic recovery under his tenure from the shock of the pandemic, although he was not the sole contributor to this achievement.
Opposition Threat
Currently, everything has changed. The new leadership of the Christian Conservatives has become more popular than the Social Democrats’ leadership. Meanwhile, the populist right-wing, represented by the Alternative for Germany party, is steadily gaining ground. Ironically, Merkel’s party and the Alternative party currently top the opinion polls.
What has affected Olaf Scholz is not only the challenges he faced but also the composition of his government. The Free Democratic Party achieved very poor results in several local elections, leading its members to consider voting to leave the government. The tough decisions made by the government in the immigration and asylum field contributed to a decline in the popularity of the Green Party among a significant part of its base, which viewed it as a voice for these issues.
Some believe that if the alliance between the Social Democrats and the Christian Conservatives had continued, as it did in the past three governments between 2009 and 2021, the obstacles would have been fewer, as they represent the two major political forces in Germany since World War II.
Scholz is now unable to hide the rifts between the government components, and fissures emerged in the budget crisis at the end of last year when the government was required to fill a financial gap after the Constitutional Court rejected transferring funds to the climate protection fund in response to the pandemic.
The liberals demanded a reduction in social assistance spending to solve the problem, a measure rejected by Scholz, who considered it a threat to the foundations of the social state.
Fractured Image
Scholz did not lose much internally, taking a clear pro-Israel stance in the war on Gaza. This support predominates most German parties and the political elite. Even the far-right now attempts to use attacking Palestinians and Arabs for electoral gains.
However, Scholz lost externally concerning Germany’s image in the South and the Arab world. German specialist Michel Lüders stated previously to Al Jazeera that “Germany risks losing its reputation, not only in the Arab or Islamic world but also among developing countries in general.”
Germany has been dubbed the “sick man” during Scholz’s tenure, a title originally conferred by The Economist in 1998 due to its significant problems, and it has resurfaced. Economic problems have reappeared in Germany’s relations with the outside world, especially as China surpassed Germany for the first time in history in its most exported product, automobiles and their parts.
The term “sick man” is rejected by Finance Minister Christian Lindner, yet he acknowledged at the Davos World Economic Forum that Germany is a “tired man.”
Germany needed significant measures to address some of its problems after reunification in 1990. Will it follow a similar path now? Many observers believe that the solution will not come with the current government and will take years. During this time, Scholz will likely have left the Chancellor position.
