Senegal at a Dangerous Political Crossroads
The future of the country’s political landscape is now wide open to all possibilities, including the potential escalation of confrontations that could lead to excessive use of force, jeopardizing the nation’s longstanding and distinguished democratic experiment. Since gaining independence, Senegal has remained relatively untouched by the major political disturbances that have plagued the West African region, some of which have descended into harrowing civil wars in certain countries.
Until the morning of February 3rd, things seemed calm as the Election Commission announced the names of the twenty candidates who met the requirements to run for the presidency. Upon reviewing the list of candidates, it became apparent to all that the incumbent President Macky Sall had lived up to his promise and did not seek re-election in respect of the constitution that limits a president to two terms.
However, the announcement by the ruling party that President Sall would run for a third term sparked public outrage, leading to discussions about constitutional amendments endorsed by the ruling party-controlled parliament. This compelled President Sall to address the nation, affirming his commitment to the constitution and declaring that he would not run for re-election.
Campaigning officially began on February 1st, expected to conclude on the scheduled voting day of February 25th. Despite significant parties objecting to the exclusion of their candidates, including the Senegalese Democratic Party, they followed legal avenues and lodged their complaints with the designated courts as defined by the Senegalese constitution.
However, everything changed suddenly on February 3rd when President Sall, at the end of his term, delivered a speech to the Senegalese people announcing the postponement of the presidential elections from February 25th to a later date. He also stated that he would submit his decision to parliament for review, followed by a national dialogue on the future of Senegal’s longstanding democratic experience.
President Sall concluded his address by reaffirming his earlier commitment not to run in the upcoming elections, in accordance with the provisions of the constitution.
While such news may seem routine in other African countries grappling with one-party dominance or recurring military interference in democracy, it has come as a significant shock to the Senegalese public, given the country’s history free of military coups post-independence. Moreover, peaceful democratic practices have become the accepted means for the peaceful transfer of power in the country.
Over the last quarter-century, democracy in Senegal has significantly strengthened, with the electoral process becoming transparent and largely fair. All parties have committed to accepting the election results regardless of the outcome.
Historically, Senegal’s contemporary political landscape saw former President Abdou Diouf, who ruled for twenty years, acknowledge his defeat in the 2000 presidential elections, conceding to his longtime rival Abdoulaye Wade. In 2012, President Abdoulaye Wade, albeit reluctantly, accepted his defeat in the second round of elections, congratulating his protege and current President Macky Sall.
Last year, the country witnessed intense protests when the ruling party announced President Sall’s intention to run for a third term, prompting discussions about constitutional amendments sanctioned by the ruling party-controlled parliament. Faced with an angry public response, President Sall reassured the nation that he would abide by the constitution and not seek re-election.
Perhaps for this reason, President Macky Sall confirmed in his address to the nation, where he announced the election postponement, that he would not run for a third term to prevent further unrest.
In Senegal, democratic practices have been deeply ingrained, with citizens understanding that their vote carries weight and can influence the political course of their country. Hence, when a president or parliament member fails to honor their electoral promises, citizens confidently assert their stance by declaring, “You will come back to us in five years, and I will not grant you my vote.”
Ramifications of the Decision
President Sall and the ruling party attributed the decision to postpone the elections to disputes between the parliament and the Election Commission. The parliament accused two judges from the commission of bias, casting doubt on the commission’s credibility and its adherence to the constitution in terms of candidacy requirements.
The president forwarded his decision to parliament, which held an emergency session to deliberate on the decision. Opposition party members refused to discuss the matter on principle and obstructed the voting, leading the parliament president to forcefully remove the opposition deputies from the session.
A majority of members comfortably approved the decision to postpone the presidential elections from February 25th to December 15th, 2024, ensuring the current president’s term extension until the conclusion of the presidential elections and the transfer of power to the elected president by the year’s end.
Members of the ruling party and the Senegalese Democratic Party, who had previously objected to the commission’s rejection of the party’s candidate file, Karim Wade, son of former President Abdoulaye Wade, voted in favor of the decision.
In the Eye of the Storm
Following the parliament’s decision to postpone the elections until December and extend President Sall’s term by approximately a year, the opposition views this as a clear violation of the Senegalese constitution. The opposition and the Senegalese public will operate on two levels:
- Legal Level: The constitutional court and relevant judicial bodies will address this.
- Political Mobilization: This holds greater significance and involves organizing significant civil activism. The Senegalese public has started mobilizing, with expectations for further actions.
Significant questions have been raised regarding the reasons behind President Sall’s abrupt decision to halt the electoral process after its formal initiation. Many analysts believe that the ruling party assessed the anticipated election results and concluded that their candidate, current Prime Minister Aminata Toure, had limited chances of winning.
In reality, Aminata Toure’s nomination did not garner unanimous support among senior ruling party leaders, but President Sall imposed it on the party. Toure is relatively new to Senegal’s political stage, entering it notably in 2013 when President Sall appointed her as Finance Minister, subsequently elevating her to Foreign Minister before her position as Prime Minister in 2022. Toure’s lack of establishment within the ruling party’s founders and limited popular support compared to other party members played a role in dissent among senior party leaders.
Moreover, a bloc led by senior ruling party figures, supported by President Sall’s wife, has recently emerged advocating for a change in the party’s candidate. Halting the electoral process allows the ruling party to later change its presidential candidate.
The opposition views halting the electoral process and extending it by over ten months as a ploy by President Sall to continue governing in disregard of the constitution. At a later stage, he may present a fabricated constitutional interpretation allowing him to run for a third term.
This line of thought resonates strongly in the heated Senegalese public, as President Sall remained silent throughout last year regarding his desire to amend the constitution and run for a third term. Eventually, after loud protests in the capital Dakar, he announced—perhaps begrudgingly—that he would respect the constitution and not seek re-election.
Tough Choices
The decision to amend the presidential election date and extend President Sall’s term appears to lead Senegal towards a perilous political tumult, threatening the peaceful democratic process the country has been known for since gaining independence from France in 1960.
The opposition will launch a large-scale campaign against parliament’s decisions, with expectations of escalating actions culminating on April 2, 2024—the last day stipulated by the constitution for President Sall’s term to end.
A significant number of opposition leaders, public opinion influencers, academics, and civil society leaders have declared that they will not recognize President Sall as leader post-April 2. This effectively plunges the country into a constitutional void that could result in chaos.
Legal experts have suggested that the Parliament President assume power on April 2 to prevent any turmoil in the country. However, opposition leaders have announced plans for open civil disobedience from April 2 and refuse to acknowledge President Sall as the head of state under any circumstances.
Such statements are highly concerning in a democratic country witnessing significant political tension against the ruling party. This was evident in the violent youth protests that erupted in Dakar in 2021 when the court leveled charges against opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, resulting in casualties and necessitating his release. Similar scenarios unfolded during the large protests that eventually prompted President Sall to announce that he would not amend the constitution or run for a third term.
The gravest risk in all this lies in the potential for chaos and constitutional void—God forbid—leading some adventurous military officers to overthrow Senegal’s longstanding democratic experiment, akin to events that occurred in Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Mali, and more recently in Niger.
Senegal’s esteemed democracy is at a critical juncture, requiring support from the wise and judicious to navigate this challenging test and preserve its standing as a beacon of hope amidst the encroaching darkness of coups in Africa.
