As Israel gears up for a ground assault on the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, a statement from the White House regarding President Joe Biden’s call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday underscored Biden’s reiteration of the necessity for any military operation in Rafah to be based on a reliable and implementable plan, ensuring the security and support of over a million people seeking refuge there.
The statement, however, did not mention Washington’s rejection of an invasion of Rafah, the last resort for approximately one and a half million Palestinians since the beginning of Israel’s aggression in the region last October.
Experts in Washington express growing frustration within the White House regarding Netanyahu’s dismissal of numerous American requests. Sarah Harrison, a former official at the Department of Defense and a Rand Corporation expert, doubts the effectiveness of American pressure. She points to the US administration’s decision to suspend funding for the UNRWA organization, support a $14 billion arms package for Israel, and refusal to condition military aid while the Israeli army prepares for operations in Rafah as contradictory to the supposed policy goals outlined in the National Security Memo.
Netanyahu, appearing on ABC News’ talk show as a guest earlier this week, reiterated his commitment to eliminating the remaining Hamas units in Rafah, promising a safe passage for civilian residents to leave and stating that detailed plans are being developed for their relocation.
As calls increase from Congress members to avoid the invasion of Rafah, the United Nations and other aid organizations express concerns about the fate of civilians once the Israeli assault on Rafah begins. Netanyahu’s response indicates that those opposed to entering Rafah under any circumstances are essentially advocating surrendering the war.
The White House dispatched CIA Director Bill Burns to Egypt to continue discussions on a ceasefire agreement that could result in the release of approximately 132 Israeli detainees held by Hamas, including 8 American citizens. Burns is expected to meet with the Qatari Prime Minister and the heads of Egyptian and Israeli intelligence to discuss efforts to reach a new exchange deal, potentially leading to a prolonged cessation of hostilities in Gaza and increased humanitarian aid for the region’s inhabitants.
The American influence over Israel is significant, as highlighted by Georgio Cafiero, director of the Gulf State Analytics institution. The Israeli government’s ability to launch its offensive on Gaza is largely dependent on Washington’s high level of support.
David Mack, former Assistant Secretary of State for Middle East Affairs and current expert at the Atlantic Council, emphasizes that mere words, even from Biden himself, will not suffice to halt Israel’s plans to invade Rafah. The only effective strategy is to impose strict conditions on the continuation of American military, financial, and political support for Israel, actions that seem to be unfolding with the President’s National Security Memo and support from prominent Democrats in the US Senate.
However, due to political considerations, Biden’s administration may not impose conditions or set red lines on aid to Israel, refusing to utilize Washington’s influence to alter the situation on the ground.
Ben Rhodes, former adviser in the National Security Council under President Barack Obama, notes the uncertainty surrounding whether the change in Washington’s rhetoric during phone calls will impact Netanyahu’s actions, particularly as long as Washington supports Netanyahu’s military operation in Gaza without conditions.
