The Senegalese people do not hide their belief at any time that their country is an African exception to democracy in a space rocked by coups, and with a sense of “supreme” pride, they attribute this to the political awareness, elite, and distance of their army from politics.
However, today the Senegalese fear that the recent weeks of President Macky Sall’s rule may undermine what Senegal has built over 63 years, or at least 60 since the first postponement of presidential elections in the country’s history in 1963 during the tenure of former President Leopold Sedar Senghor. While the Senegalese do not want to condone this delay, the political winds in Dakar seem stronger than the waves of the Atlantic Ocean, which have been lapping at the shores of the “little Paris” for decades.
Senegal has not experienced political reconciliation and calmness among its factions in the past three years. The language of trials and violent protests has been the most utilized in the political discourse of this country, which confidently strides towards great development prospects. If the current President Macky Sall has been able – as his supporters claim – to bring about a qualitative leap in development in his country, he is now also putting it, through the election postponement, on a fiery plate.
Last Hopes of the Third Term
Opposition forces accuse President Macky Sall of clinging to a third presidential term, or at least attempting to control the electoral scene to ensure a level of influence on the outcome that will result from his departure from power. Since power is attractive, this African politician – according to his opponents – has become one of the most tenacious in a rule that is increasingly slipping out of his hands due to the law and the constitution.
With the approval of the Senegalese parliament for a proposal to postpone the elections until the end of the year, President Sall, who was elected in 2012 and re-elected in 2019, will benefit from at least around 10 more months, in an extension that is the first of its kind in six decades.
Undoubtedly, these ten months will allow President Sall to make the necessary political and administrative changes and leave the imprints he desires on the presidential scene after him. However, these months, according to some observers, will not be the “grand finale” for the president who has been besieged by protests from within and displeasure and anger from abroad.
President Macky Sall of Senegal’s decision to postpone the elections plunged the country into a political crisis (Al Jazeera)
Rampant Anger in the African Democracy Island
Senegalese cities have ignited in anger and powerful demonstrations, met by security authorities with tear gas and batons, in a scene that has become all too familiar in recent years in Dakar, Thies, Saint-Louis, and other historic Senegalese cities. The protesters chanted against President Sall, describing him as a dictator, a title that has begun to echo among politicians and various opposition forces.
Despite the widespread public anger over this delay, the rift within the majority camp was limited to the resignation of the Secretary-General of the government, Abdoulaye Koulibaly, a journalist and the brother of one of the judges whom President Sall accused of corruption, using this as one of the pretexts for postponing the elections.
The criticism of the postponement escalated, with opposition figure Thierno Hassane Sall considering the president’s step a “great betrayal of the republic,” while the politician Malick Gueye stated that what happened was “not just a delay of the elections, but a clear cancellation.”
The excluded opposition party, led by Ousmane Sonko, called on the public to resist the “constitutional coup,” a position echoed by the League of Senegalese Imams and Clerics, who considered the postponement as a danger to Senegal, plunging it into a political crisis that will further complicate matters.
To counter the approval of the Senegalese parliament to postpone the elections, 12 opposition candidates agreed to set aside their political differences and unite their efforts to challenge the postponement decision.
International Concern and Friends’ Displeasure
Friendly countries and organizations to Senegal did not hide their displeasure at the postponement of the presidential elections in this country, which has garnered admiration and appreciation as well as influence in international stakes and polarization of international pole for decades.
During the past decades, “the democratic atmosphere” has been able to bring significant economic resources and vast diplomatic relationships to Senegal, turning it into a huge investment resort with numerous international relations and stakes.
France, which has strong ties with President Macky Sall, did not hide its concern over the postponement. This position was more sharply expressed by the United States, the European Commission, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This means – according to some Senegalese opposition figures – that Senegal has become an African country receiving negative remarks after decades of Western indulgence and praises embedded by the “democracy promoters” towards Senghor’s country.
The Supreme Court in the Senegalese capital Dakar (Al Jazeera)
Crafting the Post-Sall Scene
The announcement of the Senegalese president to postpone the elections was based on multiple pretexts. These include the demand by the excluded candidate Karim Abdullah Wade (son of former President Abdoulaye Wade) to postpone the elections due to accusing two judges of the Supreme Court of corruption, as well as his objection to the exclusion of a large number of presidential aspirants in his country, including Wade himself and the prominent opposition figure currently imprisoned, Ousmane Sonko.
A statement issued by the Senegalese Democratic Party (led by Karim Wade) stated that “this bill will rectify the harm done to more than 40 candidates who were excluded from the presidential elections”, calling on his supporters to “strongly support the postponement.”
Contrary to expectations, Sall and his supporters found in Wade’s demand an opportunity to breathe amidst the opposition’s onslaught, rocking the majority camp’s internal stability. The ruling system that was the first beneficiary of the postponement, which originally came from the depths of the majority, turned from a request from the opposition camp into a deep power gamble, especially since their presidential candidate is not convincing to the entire majority, and he is competing for power against strong contenders who possess strong internal and external networks.
While the power camp’s expectations that the postponement will be in their favor, it may also give the opposition a chance to further incite against the regime and stir the streets against it if the national dialogue, which President Sall promised to launch soon, does not succeed.
However, the officials of the ruling system and their close allies are confident that they will overcome this dilemma and overcome this challenge. “This is not the first time Senegal has changed its president,” said the government spokesperson in an earlier interview with Al Jazeera Net, pointing out some of the assurances provided by the Senegalese political environment for organizing credible elections: “I believe that Senegal’s reputation in electoral matters is sufficient, as recent history tells us that we are a democratic country. Since 1960, we have consistently held free and fair elections.”
He added, “Since 1990-1991, we have had a culture based on what we call a consensual electoral law. This means that in addition to the legal framework and the role of the National Assembly (Parliament), there must first and foremost be a discussion between political actors, the opposition, and the government to set consensual rules. One cannot expect a lack of transparency in elections in a country where the opposition won in major cities during the recent local elections, while the government won in rural areas.”
Amid multiple stakes, the shimmer of democracy in Senegal seems to be in rapid decline, and the African exception – according to the presidential spokesperson in an interview with Al Jazeera Net – is in danger of being returned to its original African base.
Senegal’s imprisoned opposition leader Ousmane Sonko (France)
Scenarios
According to the predefined deadlines, the presidential elections were supposed to take place on February 25, with the current term of President Macky Sall ending on the second of April, handing over power to the newly elected president. However, the current postponement crisis has plunged the process into deep complexities, opening the door to several scenarios, including:
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Addressing the appeals of opposition candidates, which would mean canceling the parliament’s approval of the postponement and trying to put the electoral process back on track after the recent derailment that sparked widespread anger in the Senegalese public.
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President Macky Sall reversing his decision in response to internal and external pressures, agreeing to reset the electoral process back to its original path deviated from by the postponement decision. While this option may seem unlikely at the moment, its practical implementation would pose technical challenges such as election preparedness that have been delayed, or political and legal complications related to the list of supposed presidential candidates who were excluded, a factor that initially opened the door to the postponement decision. Furthermore, the postponement decision is no longer just a presidential decision, but one approved by the parliament.
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Continuing the electoral process according to the current decisions, which have sparked wide legal, constitutional, and political debates in Senegal, meaning to reject the judicial appeals presented by the opposition and maintain the political crisis as it is until the elections are held at the end of the year. It might even lead to something further.
- Reaching a political consensus between the regime and the opposition, either on the parliamentary-approved electoral schedule or another consensual calendar. Especially with talks of external mediation led by Nigeria, in addition to the influence of Sufi references that hold significant sway over the political elite and often intervene in times of crisis to defuse tensions and restore calm to the country.
As the crisis intensifies and the scenarios multiply, Senegal is writing the diary of a strong political struggle, but this country still holds a lot of institutional power and street fervor, enabling it to absorb a hot and fiery crisis since the heavy boots are still far from commenting on the events.
