After a long silence, Tunisian President Kais Saied broke his silence regarding the most important electoral event awaited by Tunisia during this year, which is the presidential elections.
The timing of the elections has sparked many speculations about its date, whether the Tunisian president will run for a new presidential term, and most importantly, who will challenge him in the race that will take place in a political climate that is drastically different from what prevailed before the start of what is now known as the July 25th revolution.
Date Controversy
There is no room for doubt anymore, as according to what the Tunisian president stated and documented by the Tunisian Presidency’s page on social media, in a meeting with the head of the Independent High Authority for Elections Farouk Bouasker, the presidential elections will be held on time.
During the meeting, President Saied emphasized the necessity of addressing legal violations at all stages of the electoral process, from submitting candidacies to electoral campaigns, and during the voting process itself.
Saied noted in his conversation with Bouasker that it is not acceptable to approve candidacies of individuals involved in serious issues such as terrorism, without specifying as usual who he meant by that description. Saied also pointed out the phenomenon of “political money” and its role in “poisoning” the electoral process, serving what he described as corrupt individuals who work on what he termed “brainwashing.”
Perhaps the most important indication included in the publication of the Tunisian Presidency is President Saied’s talk about the contradiction that characterizes the speeches and practices of his opponents. He mentioned that they boycotted all the electoral stations that followed the launch of the July 25th revolution, on which they were formed. Now they are preparing extensively for the upcoming presidential elections.
Saied concluded his intervention by stating that his opponents forget, in the midst of aspiring to the presidential position, that it is a duty and not an honor, describing it as a test and a heavy burden.
Based on the President’s reading, his opponents are lost in daydreams while they are engulfed in what he described as secret and public meetings to achieve their primary goal, which is to reach the helm of power through the presidential chair.
Saied’s statements came after what observers described as an early electoral campaign that he launched through numerous field visits, in which the man played the role of a ruling figure and a protesting opposition simultaneously. He criticized the economic situation in the country and pledged to bring about radical change by emphasizing the need to target the hands of the corrupt, the monopolizers, the traitors, and those with foreign agendas repeatedly.
Heart of the System
The controversy surrounding the electoral date revolves around the Tunisian Presidency as the heart of the system and the focal point of the political ruling system. This is due to the significant changes that the Tunisian president introduced to the political structure in the country. After the 2010 revolution, a parliamentary system was established with a stumbling political and economic performance. The constitution that was written and enforced by President Saied himself granted unprecedented and extensive powers to the president, making the remaining authorities mere functions serving the state.
After the democratic transition decade, which was a field for competition and conflicts between parties, intellectual currents, and social movements, the political life in Tunisia revolved around President Saied. The opposition accused him of being both the adversary and the ruler within it.
This reality serves as a significant driving force for everyone to put their eggs in the basket of the upcoming presidential electoral bets. Those who aim to change the political reality in the country can only do so by winning the presidential chair, and enjoying its absolute powers, regardless of whether they will retain them or be overthrown for the benefit of different rules of the political game.
While the opposition announced the boycott of previous electoral dates, such as legislative elections and regional council elections, they provided a primary reason for their stance; considering what President Saied did as a coup against the revolution and the democratic transition in Tunisia. Thus, the rejection of the electoral dates was based on the principle that “what is built on invalid grounds is invalid.”
However, the situation seems different regarding the presidential elections, not only due to the value and effectiveness of the presidency institution and its centralization in the current political reality but also because of the political results of previous dates. In fact, it represents a strange paradox, as the opposition accusing President Saied’s regime of being coup-oriented that undermined democratic gains did not accuse him of forging the results of those dates. They simply pointed out the political climate deterioration and the decline in freedoms to the extent that imposed political aridity in the country, draining those dates of any political content with value or practical impact that could result from them.
This approach leaves room for speculation about a presidential electoral gamble that could lead to what could be described as a possible electoral surprise, explaining the ongoing controversy within the Tunisian opposition between those who see the value in participating and those who consider it pointless, a free endorsement of what they view as a coup that must be fundamentally boycotted.
On the other side of the paradox, there exists a wide gap between President Saied’s appeal to the people and the extent to which it leads to populism, and the participation percentages garnered from electoral events and consultations he initiated. These percentages witnessed an unprecedented decline in public interest.
Saied attributed this popular reluctance to the poor legacy left by the stumbling democratic transition decade in the minds of Tunisians, turning elections and consultations into activities they least want to engage in.
This logic is refuted by the opposition citing that it may have been understandable in the first months after Saied’s actions, but if it continues year after year, it signifies a clear sign only an obstinate denier would miss – the isolation Saied and his path are in, relying solely on the strong forces within the Tunisian state to impose his directives.
Different Litmus Test
This time, it is about a different electoral challenge. By discussing the presidential competition in its due time, President Saied accepts the challenge to put his popularity and choices to the test, seemingly unconcerned about the message conveyed by the extremely low public turnout in previous dates. He appears with a confident demeanor, ready to set another date with history, as he has consistently emphasized in other occasions.
By this, he means a date with history that transcends the size and borders of the country and its concerns to global human issues that Saied believes it is time to understand and deal with radically different from what prevails in today’s world, both in the East and the West, the North and the South.
To the extent the Tunisian president strives to place the Tunisian scene in a broader historical and geopolitical context, the opposition believes that the country’s problem must be addressed “now..here”, in a political atmosphere where they believe has been politically, judicially, and securitarily framed. This has turned the minimum criticism of power into restrictions and collective actions for the sake of effecting change, justifying the accusations of opponents of the most serious offenses such as treachery and conspiracy against the state’s security. Their evidence in this regard is the political leaders imprisoned for an extended period on charges described by defense lawyers as empty and politicized to the core.
In political interpretation, the opposition views that President Saied, who accuses his adversaries of seeking to seize the presidency, sits on it as a ruling figure with an absolute constitutional text, affirming – the opposition, that the Tunisian President is not speaking the truth when he denies the regression of freedoms or the deployment of justice and security to persecute his opponents and dissenters, which ultimately led to an expected upcoming presidential electoral schedule in which the current authority endeavors to capture it to suit Saied’s desires, excluding all serious names capable of genuine competition that threatens his stay in the Carthage Palace.
However, indications suggest that the opposition is oscillating in their choices on how to deal with this electoral milestone, and the possibility of reaching a candidate free from judicial pursuits, capable of addressing and mobilizing the Tunisian street behind a new change. All of this is based on what Saied’s years of severe economic crisis have led to clearly impacting the livelihood of Tunisians, queuing for basic necessities whose prices have skyrocketed due to the state’s withdrawal of subsidies, further exacerbating the citizens’ purchasing power decline.
The speculations are swirling again to ask:
Who will challenge President Saied in the upcoming presidential elections?
Names.. And More Names
It can be said that the time has come to discuss what can be described as a stock exchange of possible names to challenge President Saied in the anticipated presidential electoral showdown if it finds its way to execution.
In this stock exchange, everyone sings their tune and throws their arrow, hoping to strike the minds and hearts of Tunisians, even if by a subtle means, as revealing a roadmap might make the potential candidate’s cards burn prematurely for one reason or another.
Without firm commitment and timidly trading names like the seasoned political figure Moncef Marzouki, crossing from the era of the late Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to the post-transitional democratic era, being labeled as a “statesman” coming from afar. Although he has not officially announced his candidacy, virtual platforms have started to propose him as a face of the future that could bring Tunisia back to its “esteemed political traditions”. This might resonate with the supporters of his party, the Democratic Forum for Labor and Liberties; currently under judicial detention in a lawsuit filed by the circles close to President Saied, relying on him occasionally to put an end to all that.
Under the weight of judicial investigations, many names such as Alifa Al-Hamdi, who announced her candidacy early for the 2024 presidential elections, embark on what she deems as a battle of judicial pursuits imposed on her by those surrounding President Saied, sometimes resorting to the man to put an end to all of that.
The same applies to a considerable number of political figures like Saffi Said, and Fadel Abdulkafi, not to mention the detained ones in corruption cases and conspiracies against the state security, such as the leader of the Ennahda Movement Sheikh Rashid Ghannouchi, and the leader in the Democratic Current Ghazi Al-Shuwashi, and others who were charged with corruption and conspiracy and altered the state apparatus agenda.
The opposition sees in this case what reminds them of the Egyptian experience, which President Saied never concealed his admiration for. In Egypt, elections were organized judicially and security wise to allow a weak competitor.
President Saied and his supporters view all these arguments as facets of a political framework within which rotating allegations revolve in the conflict over positions and potential expected gains. Meanwhile, President Saied is engulfed in a fierce battle with the most entrenched circles of corruption and the most secure fortresses of influence in a relentless attempt to pull the country out of turbulent times and address its issues with a radical solution that does not settle for reforming the inherited course but replaces it with a completely different one. This is viewed as the revolutionary core of Saied’s path and the most accurate reflection of the Tunisians’ demands for a country that represents them and serves their aspirations.
Outside the Box
Whether you support the transitional decade of democracy or endorse the path imposed by President Saied, or even those who propose a third way between the two, you will encounter a lot of talk about the ballot box and its surroundings in Tunisia. This discussion raises a question that may seem strange at first glance:
Will the electoral ballot box determine the political landscape in Tunisia in light of the results of the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for this year?
Yes, if we follow those who believe that the electoral ballot box has not completely lost its credibility even in the eyes of Saied’s opponents, as they see him acknowledging very low participation percentages in contrast to what all dictatorships worldwide, past and present, do.
No, if we remember Saied’s talk about the role of corrupt money, malicious propaganda campaigns, and political machinations supported from abroad. The opposition talks about the security and judicial pre-framing of the political reality in the country, turning it bit by bit into a large fortress where everyone has to comply and adjust following those deemed her criticizers as the governor at his command.
However, there are other approaches that remind us that the political path in Tunisia may be crafted by wills that know how to weave political slogans and titles and forge alliances without contradicting with the ballot box. This is because all previous electoral competitions in democratic transition decade were followed by agreements akin to political patronage that were not exempt from severe critics.
This fact indicates an inevitable possibility in a limited context wherein certain deals are made involving swapping gains and concessions that parties floating on the political surface might enter into, while others prefer to stay away from the spotlight and the limelight, holding onto their aces until the crucial moment.
The sides that experienced an unprecedented experience in the Arab world through dismantling the democratic transition path, using its slogans and declared objectives, pointed out that turning everything upside down merely with the votes of the electorate and expansive party alliances does not necessitate a drop of blood to be shed. This affords a comfortable environment for opponents of the established path, allowing them to demonstrate and hold rallies within the logic of “You can say what you want.. and we’ll do what we want”..
Nevertheless, the political readings emerging from the opposition and the ruling power pour more fuel onto the fire of speculations, without anyone being able to categorically assert one premise over another or affirm a course at the expense of another. This confirms that President Saied scattered a bit of the haze of the scene in his meeting with the head of the elections authority. Most of it still requires a blend of troubled time and critical choices until the black thread from the white thread in a country exhausted by politics, bordering the economy, amid pressing regional and international bets.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera Channel.
