Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed epitomizes the image of a man firmly resolved to solidify his iron grip, construct an empire that dominates the entire region, and forcibly seize the mantle of African leadership. Now, having waged a fierce war against the Tigrayans, severely dealt with political opponents, maneuvered around the 2020 elections, and disposed of his most formidable rivals, he is seriously considering gobbling up neighboring countries.
Ethiopia Threatens African Peace
Recently, Ethiopia has been threatening African peace and security unapologetically. It supports the Rapid Support Forces’ uprisings and hosts armed Sudanese opposition, seeking to pounce again on the Fashaga region that the Sudanese army regained. Furthermore, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed insisted on completing all phases of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam construction, unilaterally filling and operating the dam and thus disregarding the positions and objections of the riparian and downstream states, directly threatening the interests and historical rights of Egypt and Sudan over the Nile River—aggressive actions never undertaken by any Ethiopian ruler before.
Abiy Ahmed didn't stop with these fronts; days ago, his government announced that Eritrea's independence and referendum, through which it was liberated from Ethiopia's rule, was a historical and legal mistake. This, in essence, denotes Ethiopian non-recognition of Eritrean sovereignty, heralding potential renewed war between the two nations.
The Fight for Ports
The driving force behind these declarations is Ethiopia's desperation for maritime outlets at any cost, given its landlocked status. In pursuit of this, Ethiopia could invade neighboring countries or exacerbate their internal divisions to weaken them before swooping in.
This came into play when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding and cooperation with the Somali region of Somaliland—Somalia's northern territories. According to this deal, Ethiopia will gain access to a naval base in Somalia, in exchange for Somaliland's shares in Ethiopian Airlines. Moreover, Ethiopia will recognize the separatist region of Somaliland as an independent state.
This agreement was firmly rejected by Egypt and Sudan, citing it as a blatant violation of Somalia's sovereignty—a member state of the Arab League—arguing that the Arab states should have taken unified and strict positions against this aggressive act that supports divisions and forceful regional domination, curbing Abiy Ahmed’s ambitions in the resources of neighboring countries.
Today, as he experiences delusions of grandeur, he wants to fight on all fronts, reminiscent of the era of Emperor Haile Selassie, and fortify centralized power through the bloody approach previously adopted by his predecessor Menelik II.
Between Hamidti and Abiy Ahmed
Although the development of Abiy Ahmed’s persona differs from the emergence of Hamidti's, there’s no mistaking the covert leverages working to empower them both in their governance and coordination on many stances. Such aligning interests within Sudan and Ethiopia suggest a single contractor’s involvement.
The West began engaging with Hamidti about ten years ago, utilizing his forces to combat illegal migration. In this context, violations committed by the Rapid Support Forces in Darfur, Khartoum, and the Gezira State were overlooked. He is currently supported with weapons, intelligence data, and protected from legal prosecutions.
Additionally, the African countries Hamidti recently visited were compelled to receive him as if he was a head of state, painting him as the savior of Sudanese democracy and the revolution, while in reality, he is one of the most formidable enemies of the revolution and civilian rule. The Rapid Support Forces, composed of disparate groups from Chad, Mali, Libya, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic, pose a significant danger.
Sudan accuses Chad of opening its airports to arm the rebels across the western border, leading to a diplomatic rift, signifying the widening circle of violence and suggesting underlying forces intent on igniting conflict across West Africa and the Sahel in order to then dominate rich reserves of gold and uranium.
With the ignition of this conflict, it becomes apparent that Ethiopia has its sights set on South Sudan's oil, Fashaga's fertile lands, Eritrean ports, and the Somali coast. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project is used to create an external bogeyman to suppress internal dissent against this direction and threaten the interests of Arab states, such as Abiy Ahmed’s parliamentary threat to mobilize a million Ethiopians for a potential war with Egypt and Sudan.
Africa’s Summer Maneuvers
In July 2018, Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki signed the Asmara Declaration of Peace and Friendship, highlighting security cooperation, border demarcation, and opening economic partnerships. However, Ahmed has since backpedaled and now hints at resuming war, refusing to recognize an Eritrean state—a crucial battle Afwerki too will engage in with historical grievances, with Sudan at his side, potentially enlisting Russian support.
Recently, a Russian ship delivered 25,000 tons of grains to Eritrea's Massawa port as Putin’s gift. Conversely, the United States is likely to support Ethiopia, while Turkey, Egypt, and Sudan will back Somalia and Eritrea. Neither the IGAD organization nor the beleaguered African Union seems capable of extinguishing the blaze.
This signals the possibility of a confrontation between major countries over the African plateau, presaging Africa's region-wide chaos, ensuring greater Western intervention and looting of African resources, and endorsing supportive dictatorial regimes.
Where is the African Will?
Economically troubled and suffering from ethnic conflicts and local leaders' ambitions, Ethiopia cannot tackle these multiple wars alone. Abiy Ahmed, mesmerized by American dominance, seems not to have learned from history’s lessons and is doomed to suffer defeats and pay a hefty price for his follies.
The African region is undeniably heating up, undergoing profound transformations, and new military and political alliances are emerging. Ethiopia will be central to this conflict, offering Egypt an opportune moment to forcefully intervene and protect its interests. The Red Sea coast and the highlands will become a region ablaze.
Furthermore, one cannot overlook Israeli influence, which seeks to foster and support military dictatorships for its interests, enticing them with money and power—Hamidti in Sudan, Haftar in Libya, and Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia.
Yet, an overarching question remains: where is the African popular will, and why does it not stand against these destructive schemes?
