Beirut – The assassination of Saleh al-Arouri, Deputy Head of the Political Bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), along with two leaders of the Al-Qassam Brigades and four members of the movement, has sent shockwaves across both Lebanon and Palestine. This operation saw Israel crossing the red lines previously announced by Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah.
Hezbollah has confirmed that this assassination will not pass without punishment, following Israeli threats to eliminate Palestinian resistance leaders both inside and outside occupied Palestine.
Al-Arouri had directly received a threat from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in August 2023, who accused him of orchestrating Hamas attacks in the West Bank. He was referred to by Yedioth Ahronoth as "the snake's head."
The southern suburbs, a fundamental stronghold of Hezbollah and home to about a million inhabitants, has a prominent presence of the party. Not only does it contain Hezbollah's official headquarters, offices of its deputies and their residences, it also hosts various activities. Hence, the Israeli operation had dual intentions: assassinating top Palestinian leaders of Hamas, and striking and threatening the political and security stronghold of Hezbollah.
With Israel committing the act that Nasrallah personally warned against, how will Hezbollah respond to the operation?
Context
Yesterday evening, a massive explosion shook Beirut's southern suburbs, an Israeli airstrike targeting a Hamas office that led to the martyrdom of al-Arouri and his companions, while others were injured.
The assassination of al-Arouri, a prominent founder of the Al-Qassam Brigades, came shortly before a speech by Nasrallah. Israeli Channel 13 claimed that they had planned to meet the next day, highlighting their strong relationship, with many photographs evidencing their connection. Moreover, the assassination followed mere hours after an Israeli official stated that forces withdrawn from Gaza would prepare for a potential second front in Lebanon.
Despite being the most severe operation in the suburbs since the July 2006 war, it also echoes a precision operation carried out by two Israeli drones in the suburbs in August 2019, hitting near Hezbollah's media relations office and causing only material damage.
Netanyahu has instructed his government ministers to avoid commenting on the assassination of al-Arouri, with officials close to him indicating that the operation targeted al-Arouri, not Hezbollah or the Lebanese government.
Condemnations have poured in from Lebanese, Palestinian, and Arab circles about al-Arouri's assassination. Among the most prominent local responses came from acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who stated that "a new Israeli crime aims to drag Lebanon into a new stage of confrontations after the continuous daily assaults in the south."
Meanwhile, Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib has been instructed to lodge two strong complaints with the United Nations about the serious Israeli aggression on the suburbs and the attempt to drag Lebanon into an overall escalation.
Palestinians have rallied under the banner "Revenge, revenge" in Ramallah following Hamas' announcement of the leader's martyrdom by a drone in Beirut's southern suburbs.
Response Scenarios
In an extensive statement mourning al-Arouri, Hezbollah described the assassination as "a serious attack on Lebanon, its people, security, sovereignty, and resistance, containing highly symbolic political and security messages. It represents a dangerous development in the war between the enemy and the resistance axis, and Hezbollah affirms that this crime will never pass without a response or punishment."
Observers believe that al-Arouri's assassination marks a new and dangerous turn in the confrontation between the party and Israel after crossing the established red lines of engagement. Daily confrontations have been escalating since October 8th, as Hezbollah announced its support for the Palestinian resistance, which detracts Israeli forces from their northern front.
With ongoing strikes between them, the number of martyred Hezbollah members has surpassed 130, prompting questions about the nature of Israeli espionage and tracking efforts in Lebanon through digital, reconnaissance, and communication means.
Many believe that the party is facing a test, as Nasrallah has repeatedly warned that any assassination of a leader within the Lebanese or Palestinian resistance on Lebanese territory would be met with a decisive response deep within Israel.
Dangerous Escalation
Political analyst Ibrahim Birm told Al Jazeera Net that al-Arouri's assassination was anticipated given his status as one of the top strategists within the Al-Qassam Brigades alongside Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, having received multiple threats. Tawfiq Shouman, another political analyst, sees the assassination as an unexpected and severe provocation by Israel, risking breaching the set limits with an awaiting punishment from the party.
Shouman anticipates that the operation will not go without a significant response, placing Nasrallah's warnings to the test, and any limited response could embolden Israel to conduct similar operations inside Lebanon.
Birm points out that Southern Lebanon is already experiencing a real war, and escalating it towards Lebanon's core is not a simple decision. This has led Israel to claim it targeted a Palestinian objective, not a Lebanese one.
Birm does not rule out that Hezbollah might absorb the operation as part of its policy to prevent Israel from dragging it into an unwanted war while preparing a harsh response to the direct threat to its security and political apparatus within its stronghold.
Birm also reminds that Israel is not capable of initiating a broad front with Lebanon without direct American military backing, citing the recent announcement by the U.S. Navy of the aircraft carrier "Ford" returning to its base in the United States after months in the Mediterranean to protect Israel following "Operation Al-Aqsa Flood."
Birm believes that the withdrawal of the American fleet signals Washington's attempt to contain regional tensions, reflecting a newfound disagreement with Israel on how the war is managed, placing the latter in a tricky position.
Shouman, however, thinks Israel's defeats could push it towards gambling with Lebanon, suggesting that Nasrallah could drastically change the tone of his speech to declare a heated stance, as al-Arouri’s assassination in form, content, and location cannot be treated as anything less than a serious and extraordinary escalation.
Birm envisions that Israel's assassination of al-Arouri aims at an impossible victory image in the Gaza Strip and might be a prelude to the beginning of its withdrawal from a war it is not prepared to expand. Unless it chooses a suicidal option by igniting a broad war with Lebanon, which is not desired by any of the international and regional actors, whether allies or adversaries.
