After a prolonged period of strained relations between the two countries, marked by numerous hostile political stances and mutual negative statements regarding each other’s regional policies, President Erdogan made an official one-day visit to Cairo. This visit is expected to have wide-ranging positive implications on many regional issues that require the cooperation of both countries, especially those where their interests intersect, such as the events in Gaza, the situations in Libya and Sudan, and the Eastern Mediterranean file.
Reconciliation after Hostility
President Erdogan’s positive stance towards Cairo and his warm reception of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, after a phase of intense animosity that characterized their personal dealings for years, sheds light on the negative impact on the political and diplomatic relations between the two countries. This makes it logical to seek an answer to a question that has long occupied the minds of many Turks and Syrians alike: When will Erdogan visit Damascus?
Turkey’s reconciliation with Cairo and its efforts to improve relations are not the first steps Ankara has taken to end its regional disputes, enhance its political ties, and expand its political and economic cooperation with regional countries. Turkey has previously restored its relations with Saudi Arabia and resumed its diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates after years of estrangement and tension due to differing views on regional issues and each party’s stance on the Arab Spring revolutions.
Erdogan and Assad
From this perspective, it seems natural, and indeed logical, to open the door to Turkish-Syrian relations and initiate speculation on the timing of official visits between the two countries, where Erdogan and Assad would meet face to face. Especially considering the strong familial friendship that linked the two men for years before the outbreak of the Syrian revolution, during which they exchanged private visits, spent holidays together, and celebrated many social occasions.
The regional reality and the ongoing tensions in the region, along with the support the Syrian regime receives, all confirm that Bashar al-Assad remains in power in Damascus. The issue of overthrowing him or attempting to change him is not currently on the table, neither regionally nor internationally.
Return of Refugees
Everyone has begun to explore mechanisms and ways to put an end to the division experienced by the Syrian people, end the suffering of the refugees, ensure their return to their cities and villages, reclaim their properties seized by the regime, and guarantee the participation of opposition factions in governance through fair elections conducted according to the provisions of the new constitution currently being prepared in Geneva under the auspices of the United Nations.
These demands are the same conditions Ankara sets for the resumption of its relations with Damascus, in addition to cooperating in the fight against terrorism to remove elements of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and the Syrian Democratic Forces from northern Syria.
American Withdrawal
This dilemma presented a golden opportunity for both Ankara and Damascus after the disclosure of extensive discussions within American decision-making circles about the desire to withdraw US forces from eastern Syria. Washington currently has 900 soldiers there, along with a range of the latest military weapons and equipment, making their presence unnecessary. This paves the way for potential Turkish cooperation with Russian and Syrian forces in northern Syria to remove these elements along the 932-kilometer border, securing Ankara’s national security and alleviating concerns about the territorial integrity being compromised.
In turn, this meets Syria’s single demand from Ankara – to withdraw its forces from the areas they are stationed in northern Syria and establish a specific timeline to do so. Damascus considers them occupying forces that threaten its national security and seize part of its national territory.
Multiple Gains
There are several gains that Ankara cannot ignore if it decides to restore its diplomatic relations with the Syrian regime. Foremost among them is naturally closing the file of Syrian refugees, meeting broad popular demands that go beyond secular and Islamist segments to include the rest of Turkish society, especially the poor and middle classes who are suffering under the ongoing economic crisis and unprecedented price hikes across all goods, services, and housing.
Additionally, there is a desire to end the tension along the border regions, which hinders trade exchanges that have long been the only way to achieve economic gains, benefit the region’s inhabitants, and create job opportunities for thousands of youth through border transit trade.
There is a need for diplomatic channels with Damascus to establish a Turkish-Syrian mechanism for cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean gas file. This aligns with Turkey’s position, especially if it succeeds in delineating its maritime borders with Cairo, giving it greater leverage to counter American and European opposition to sharing the region’s wealth with other countries under pressure from Greece and Cyprus.
Accelerating Reconciliation
Regional and international developments, coupled with the gains Ankara may achieve, may hasten the end of disputes, leading to a soon return of Turkish-Syrian relations and the exchange of official visits. Military and intelligence institutions in Turkey have advised changing the policy that has been pursued in recent years towards the Syrian file after conducting in-depth studies on international and regional situations and their future implications on Turkey’s internal political and economic conditions.
Moreover, with the support of Moscow and Tehran, joined by Riyadh, and Abu Dhabi in taking more positive steps towards ending animosities and resuming their relations, Cairo could also play an active role in bridging the gap between their positions, solving the contentious issues hindering the completion of this reconciliation after reconciling itself with Ankara.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
