After the events of October 7th, during which Hamas delivered a significant blow to Israeli security forces, the army and settlements, Israel retaliated with a devastating war on the Gaza Strip. The aftermath raises the question of whether the October 7th operation justifies the losses borne by the Palestinian people in Gaza. Analyzing the war and its outcomes from multiple perspectives is necessary to answer this question.
Losses on Both Sides
So far, over 25,000 martyrs have been reported in this war, with two-thirds being children and women. Additionally, there are over 63,000 injured and wounded individuals. The destruction inflicted by Israel on the infrastructure of Gaza is extensive, with over 50% of residential units destroyed and 85% of Gaza’s population displaced due to the devastation caused by shelling. Israel has also dropped over 10,000 bombs and missiles on Gaza. Reports estimate that the explosive power unleashed on Gaza until November 2nd last year reached the strength of the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II.
The complete destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure has led to a total lack of drinking water sources, causing the spread of communicable and infectious diseases. As a result, over 90% of the population in the region suffers from acute food insecurity, and a quarter of the population faces catastrophic levels of hunger. The war has also disrupted the education system, with 69% of educational facilities being affected and many healthcare facilities ceasing to provide services.
On the Israeli side, the losses resulting from the war are significant. According to Israeli reports, 561 soldiers have been killed since October 7th, and 2,496 Israeli soldiers have been wounded. Additionally, 790 Israeli civilians were killed, and over 10,000 were injured, with approximately a quarter of a million Israelis evacuating from settlements along the northern and southern borders due to the conflict.
The resistance movements in Gaza continue to hold 132 Israeli prisoners since October 7th, after exchanging some of them with Palestinian female prisoners during a temporary ceasefire in November last year.
The resistance movements in Gaza have launched 14,000 rockets, targeting Israeli areas including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. All these numbers are subject to periodic updates.
Profits and Losses in the Balance of Resistance Movements’ Wars
While the significant difference between the losses of the Palestinian resistance and the relative losses suffered by the Israeli occupying state remains large, the balance of profit and loss in wars led by resistance movements differs entirely from those waged by nations and regular armies against each other. The historical evidence suggests that the material losses of resistance movements are multiples of the losses suffered by the occupying state. The losses of resistance movements and their popular base, no matter how significant, remain less impactful when compared to the losses resulting from the continued occupation of these peoples.
The occupying states are unable to bear the cost of war, even with few losses. This fact is evidenced by the history of liberation movements worldwide.
The achievements of the Palestinian resistance in this war have secondary effects favoring the Palestinian cause in several aspects. Militarily, the resistance has dispelled the idea of an invincible army, revealing the fallacy surrounding the occupying state. On a political level, the resistance has restored the presence of the Palestinian cause, bringing it back to international forums at a time when it appeared on the brink of oblivion. The war has also disrupted the cycle of Israeli-Arab normalization temporarily.
The Palestinian narrative, through the Israeli reaction, has exposed the extent of brutality inherent in the occupying state, impacting American opinion and the support for Israel. Moreover, the war has propelled Israel to face charges of genocide in the International Court of Justice, potentially altering the image of Israel from that of a long-standing victim to a perpetrator of crimes against humanity.
When is the Resistance Victorious or Defeated?
Despite the political and military gains achieved by the resistance and their importance, they remain marginal in this war. The actual determination of victory or defeat ultimately rests on the final outcomes of the war on the ground, which will reflect on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict’s history. There are no middle-ground solutions or partial approaches in this war—either complete victory or complete defeat for both parties.
The resistance will emerge victorious if Israel withdraws from the areas it has invaded in Gaza at the end of the war, signifying that Israel is no longer able to impose its will on the ground. Conversely, the Palestinian resistance will be defeated if Israel manages to reoccupy and control the Gaza Strip, returning it to the pre-2005 status, thereby taking a step back in the Palestinian struggle.
Ultimately, this zero-sum war will lead to either the triumph of the resistance and the setback of Israel’s project, or the crushing of the resistance, with the military reality in the field determining the victory and defeat.
