Today, the Jordanian city of Aqaba is hosting a trilateral summit that convenes Jordan's King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. This marks the first meeting of the three leaders since the start of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, an offensive that has been ongoing for 96 days.
The trilateral summit coincides with a intensive round of talks conducted by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Israel, which is part of a broader tour that includes several Arab capitals in the region as well as Ankara. Observers believe this tour aims to prevent the escalation of the conflict and to discuss the post-war phase, amid Israeli officials' confirmation of Tel Aviv's resolve to continue the war until Hamas leaders are reached and the Israeli hostages held by the Palestinian resistance in Gaza are returned.
Amid the continuing U.S. administration's military and political support for Israel in its war on the sector despite thousands of martyrs and tens of thousands of injuries, and despite Arab movements seeking to cease-fire, and waning western support for the war, many questions arise about the goals of the tripartite summit in Aqaba today and the potential outcomes and decisions that may ensue.
Post-War Phase
Writer and political analyst Majid Abu Diak, in a conversation with Al Jazeera Net, indicates that the summit comes during Blinken's visit, which primarily aims to provide new cover for Israel to continue its war.
He sees the summit as an attempt to arrange for the upcoming phase. The American side speaks of reducing the targeting of civilians in Gaza, with a focus on targeting the resistance, noting that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still reticent in complying with this American demand.
In the same vein, Jordanian politician Marwan al-Faouri believes that Blinken's tour is part of the shaping of the American calculus, which is built on trading the removal of the Palestinian resistance from future Gaza equations in return for only a shift in the American rhetoric, not a cessation of the war. Such a narrative began surfacing through leaks rather than open declarations, hinting that President Joe Biden's administration could acknowledge a potential project to cease-fire.
A statement issued by the Royal Hashemite Court of Jordan about the summit clarified that the leaders "will discuss the serious developments in the sector and the new events in the West Bank." It reaffirmed that the summit is part of "Jordan's continuous efforts to coordinate Arab stances, to press for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, and to deliver uninterrupted humanitarian aid."
In this context, Abu Diak mentions that "Egypt and Jordan have previously declared their refusal to the displacement of the Palestinians, expressing it clearly, which is an important stance. But they may now want to coordinate their positions for the post-war period."
He added that it's notable in previous comments by U.S. President Joe Biden that countries, including Jordan, Egypt, and Turkey, expressed a willingness to deal with the post-war phase, but he did not clarify the nature of the role that these Arab countries and Turkey might play.
Expectations
Observers believe that the leaders who will gather in Aqaba today do not possess significant political leverage to pressure Israel into ceasing its crimes in Gaza or to compel the United States to respond to their demands to stop the onslaught. Therefore, analysts including Majid Abu Diak, expect that the summit's outcomes will include a reaffirmation by Egypt and Jordan of their stance against the displacement of Palestinians and a call to stop the war.
Abu Diak says, "Unfortunately, we see a negative Egyptian position at the Rafah border crossing, complying with Israeli demands. What is required—as these countries are convening at the summit—is another stance toward allowing aid into the Gaza Strip, lifting the siege, and of course, ending the war."
He criticizes the weak Arab response, which has failed to reach the level of support for Gaza as shown by non-Arab countries in standing against Israeli aggression. He also laments that "Arab countries have not supported South Africa in raising a complaint against Israel in the International Criminal Court for committing war crimes and ethnic cleansing in the Gaza Strip."
Generally, the Arab stance remains below the required level in supporting their brethren in the Gaza Strip, whether in terms of stopping the war or pushing to open borders and allowing aid into Gaza.
According to news reports, leaders are expected to call for an immediate cease-fire at the end of their summit, affirm the necessity of returning to the political track to find a fair and comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue based on the two-state resolution, in accordance with United Nations resolutions. The final statement is also anticipated to underline a rejection of efforts aimed at liquidating the Palestinian cause.
