At a bustling celebration, Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party has completed its slate of candidates for the upcoming local elections, notably including the nominee for the capital city, Ankara’s municipality. Turgut Altınok, the head of the Keçiören district municipality in Ankara, was selected for this pivotal role.
Finalizing Candidates
Previously, the party had announced its candidates for 26 mayoral positions, including 11 major cities, with former Environment Minister Murat Kurum chosen for the significant Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. This decision underscores the party’s keen interest in reclaiming the city as well as the intense competition it entails.
In a subsequent celebration a few days later, the ruling party unveiled its candidates for the remaining municipalities, naming its choices for 48 mayoral positions, which include 17 major cities with Ankara topping the list. The Justice and Development Party has now nominated candidates for 74 provinces and is supporting the Nationalist Movement Party’s candidates in the remaining seven provinces, showcasing their alliance.
President Erdogan also announced that his party will release its electoral manifesto by the end of the current month and will finalize candidates for the district municipalities within major cities before the mid-next month’s deadline. In his extended speech, Erdogan emphasized the critical importance of local elections, noting that it was at the level of municipalities where he and his colleagues commenced their “journey of serving the people.”
Unlike Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, kept his focus on municipal work and largely stayed out of political disputes and party bickering, with the recent presidential campaign being a rare exception. Consequently, his tenure as mayor did not see frequent confrontations with the Justice and Development Party.
Overall, the ruling party seems to favor revitalizing its roster of candidates. It did not endorse seven current mayors for re-election, including those from four major cities, some of which were significantly affected by the devastating earthquake in February. In provinces touched by the earthquake, with the notable exceptions of Gaziantep and Şanlıurfa, no mayoral incumbents were re-nominated, reflecting a clear intent to respond to the local outrage where municipalities were held accountable for the damage due to their roles in granting construction permits and overseeing projects.
Continuing its strategy, the party presented strong nominees known within political or municipal circles, including many from current district mayors in major cities. Prominent party figures included the likes of deputy party leader Hamza Dağ who was nominated for the mayoralty of İzmir, traditionally a stronghold of the opposing Republican People’s Party.
Capital Calculations
In the 2019 local elections, Republican People’s Party’s candidate Mansur Yavaş won the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality with a 50.9% vote share, against the 47.1% for Justice and Development Party’s former minister Mehmet Özhaseki. Mirroring Istanbul, the major reason for the Justice and Development Party’s defeat after a quarter-century reign was the opposition parties rallying behind the Republican People’s Party candidate. Yavaş acquired not only the base vote of his party, securing 37.8% in the municipal council behind the Justice and Development Party’s 41% but also attracted votes from a broad swathe of the electorate, including nationalists and conservative voters who had no grievances with him.
The selection of the candidate was equally crucial. The Justice and Development Party nominated a former minister with conservative roots outside Ankara, whereas the opposition chose Yavaş, who has nationalist roots, earning the support of not only his nominating Republican People’s Party but also from many nationalists (both the Nationalist Movement Party and the İyi Party, which jointly secured 14% of the municipal council votes in Ankara, 7% each) and conservatives who had no declared issues with him. The protest vote against the Justice and Development Party was also a significant factor.
By comparison, the battle for Ankara’s municipality may be relatively tougher than Istanbul for the ruling party to regain, particularly because of Mayor Yavaş himself. Unlike Istanbul’s Mayor İmamoğlu, Yavaş primarily focused on his municipal duties and largely remained out of partisan conflicts. He had several meetings with Erdogan and some ministers, unlike İmamoğlu.
Yavaş is generally well-regarded for his leadership of the municipality, without any notable failures, shortcomings, or controversies, commonly assessed as a successful mayor. This reputation has fortified the Republican People’s Party’s decision to nominate him again.
Crucially, Yavaş’s nationalist background bolsters his chances of drawing votes from nationalists within the city despite the Nationalist Movement Party’s support for the Justice and Development Party’s candidate and İyi Party’s intention to field its own candidate.
Winning Prospects
In the last legislative elections a few months ago, the Justice and Development Party earned 40.4% of the vote in Ankara, with its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party, receiving 13.1%. This was in contrast to the Republican People’s Party’s 26.1%, İyi Party’s 12.1%, and the Peoples’ Democratic Party’s 6.4%. Thus, the Justice and Development Party’s major hope for reclaiming the capital’s municipality lies in the dissipation of the coalition between the Republican People’s Party and the İyi Party, alongside modest expectations for Kurdish voters’ enthusiasm for Yavaş due to his nationalist background.
In turn, the Justice and Development Party is counting on its candidate to attract Nationalist Movement Party supporters, votes from some allied parties like the Great Unity Party (nationalist), and perhaps those from minor conservative parties, especially after recent rifts with the Republican People’s Party.
Here comes the ruling party’s choice for Ankara’s big-city municipality: the well-known and Ankara-born Turgut Altınok, who has served as the head of the Keçiören district. A figure familiar to most nationalist and conservative parties, Altınok switched between several of them, starting as an aide to the secretary of the Nationalist Movement Party’s leader and winning the municipality of Keçiören multiple times across different parties. Although he resigned from the Justice and Development Party and unsuccessfully ran for Ankara Metropolitan Municipality with the Great Unity Party in 2014, his daughter was among the founders of the İyi Party, and Altınok later rejoined the Justice and Development Party and won the Keçiören Municipality again in 2019.
Thus, with a strong nationalist presence in the capital, a likely neutral stance by Kurdish voters, the absence of new conservative parties’ support for Yavaş, and İyi Party’s own candidate, the Justice and Development Party views its chance to reclaim the municipality as considerable.
Despite the improved odds for the ruling party in the upcoming Ankara municipal elections, the race is far from straightforward. Yavaş has left a notable mark on the city’s administration over the past five years, and nationalist voter tendencies cannot be fully predicted, even in light of the İyi Party’s stance. Additionally, alliance dynamics and support mechanisms can change up to election day – a characteristic of Turkish politics.
Finally, voting behavior in local elections is distinct from national or presidential elections; elements like protest votes and the Justice and Development Party’s recent gradual decline, coupled with the uncertain impact of newly established parties, may come into play, especially in light of criticisms leveled at the ruling party over issues such as its stance on the Gaza conflict.
In sum, the Justice and Development Party appears to have a notable edge in the race for Ankara’s municipal leadership, facing a strong incumbent whose defeat will not be easily secured, and the potential for unforeseen developments impacting results. Hence, predicting a precise outcome remains relatively premature, as 24 hours can be an extensive period in Turkish politics.
