The recent bombastic statements by potential U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump have revived concerns about the American disengagement from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the cornerstone of this alliance. But to what extent is this possibility feasible?
During a meeting held in South Carolina on February 10th, the former U.S. president and potential 2024 Republican presidential candidate sent shockwaves across the continent when he declared, “I will not protect you,” if re-elected.
Trump’s threat specifically targeted NATO member countries failing to allocate 2% of their GDP to military spending. However, beyond words, can the United States truly leave NATO and terminate its military presence in Europe?
The French magazine “Lobwane” raised this question, commencing the response with a historical overview of the alliance established in 1949 with 12 initial member states, including the United States. At present, NATO comprises 31 members, interconnected by only 14 articles, one famously involving collective defense against any aggressor targeting a member state.
Article 13 stipulates that after remaining in force for 20 years, any party can withdraw with one year’s notice to the U.S. government, responsible for informing other party governments upon the deposit of the withdrawal document.
In this scenario, how could the United States withdraw itself? According to Emily Zima, a political science doctor and researcher at the Military Research Institute, adding “procedural text” is necessary because, aside from Article 13, there is no procedure detailing what a state should do if it desires to leave the alliance.
The magazine also highlighted that a potential U.S. exit would prompt a review of the alliance’s operational methods. During his 2016-2020 term, Trump spared no criticism for NATO, deeming it an outdated organization. Nonetheless, some of his close advisors managed to curb his isolationist tendencies.
On another note, the magazine recalled a Congress resolution in December 2023, stating that no president could suspend, terminate, denounce, or withdraw America’s NATO membership without a law passed by Congress or the consent of two-thirds of the Senate. The U.S. president must notify Congress 180 days before commencing an evacuation plan, a text seemingly tailored for Donald Trump, as expressed by the magazine.
