The American magazine “Foreign Affairs” recently published a lengthy article by CIA Director William Burns discussing the role of intelligence, its evolution, and its imperative function in the current era while highlighting some of his opinions on the most important global issues.
Burns opened his article by stating that as long as countries keep secrets from each other, they have attempted to steal those secrets. He emphasized that espionage has been and will remain an integral part of the art of governance, even as its techniques continue to evolve.
He pointed out that the crucial test of espionage is successful anticipation, aiding policy makers in navigating smoothly through deep transformations in the international landscape during pivotal moments that only occur a few times each century.
He stated that the United States is currently facing one of those rare moments, similar to the dawn of the Cold War or the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks in 2001. The rise of China and Russian reprisal present daunting geopolitical challenges in a world of intense strategic competition, where the U.S. no longer enjoys unmatched strength and existential climate threats are escalating.
Moreover, he added that the current time is one of historical challenges for the CIA and the intelligence profession as a whole, with geopolitical and technological transformations posing a greater test than ever before. Adapting to a world where secure prediction is the only certainty will be crucial.
Additionally, Burns pointed out that the emergence of a more comprehensive technological revolution, from microchips to artificial intelligence to quantum computing, is fundamentally changing the world, including the profession of espionage. These developments, in many ways, make the CIA’s mission more difficult than ever before, giving adversaries powerful new tools to disrupt, evade, and spy.
Despite these challenges, Burns emphasized that espionage remains an interaction between humans and technology. He stressed the importance of blending mastery of emerging technologies with popular skills and individual courage at the heart of the spying profession in order for intelligence services to be effective in the 21st century.
The discussion then turned to the diplomatic efforts of intelligence agencies. Burns highlighted the evolving nature of intelligence gathering, citing strategic intelligence disclosures and the increasing value of intelligence diplomacy in supporting allies and confronting adversaries.
Furthermore, Burns delved into the world’s most pressing current issues, beginning with the end of the post-Cold War era with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, pointing out that Vladimir Putin’s relentless and savage insistence on controlling Ukraine has brought shame to Russia, revealing its weaknesses, financially, militarily, and politically. This has led to a resurgence of Ukraine and the positioning of Russia as an economic vassal to China, as well as strengthening NATO and achieving steady gains in the Black Sea.
He predicted that this year may be challenging in the war in Ukraine, a test for its survival, and that the challenge faced by Ukraine is to penetrate Putin’s arrogance and highlight the steep cost Russia would bear from the continued conflict, not only by making progress on the front lines, but also by launching deeper strikes and achieving solid gains in the Black Sea.
He asserted that the key to success lies in maintaining Western aid to Ukraine, stating that this aid represents a relatively low-cost investment for America with significant geopolitical returns and notable benefits for the U.S. industry. He emphasized that withdrawing from the conflict in such a critical moment and cutting support for Ukraine would have negative historical consequences.
The article then moved on to China as a major competitor, describing Beijing as the only competitor with the intent to reshape the international system, boasting economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do so. Burns highlighted the careful scrutiny of Chinese leaders’ words, along with their actions inside and outside their countries, emphasizing that for President Xi Jinping, the strong U.S. support for Ukraine was certainly surprising.
Moreover, Burns explained that the overarching mission of intelligence agencies is to deal with Iran’s nuclear program, enable Russian aggression, and curb the Houthis. He stressed that the U.S. is not solely responsible for solving the disturbing problems in the Middle East, but managing or resolving any of those problems without active U.S. leadership is impossible. He added that the evolving world presents historical new opportunities for CIA analysts to develop new Artificial Intelligence tools to cope with the challenge of processing large amounts of data efficiently.
In conclusion, Burns emphasized that the evolving geopolitical landscape poses significant challenges and opportunities for intelligence agencies, and the collective aim is to navigate and adapt to the ever-changing world while upholding national security interests.
