After Egypt announced on December 19th that negotiations with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) had reached a deadlock due to Ethiopian procrastination, questions arose about Egypt’s options in managing the crisis, especially considering that diplomacy had proven ineffective after 12 years of negotiations. Ethiopia also refused legal options, such as resorting to arbitration or international courts, making the military option extremely challenging, given the approaching filling of the GERD reservoir, which could submerge several Sudanese cities and have catastrophic effects on both Sudan and Egypt.
Recent agreements with the Republic of Somaliland can be interpreted as part of Ethiopia’s attempts to challenge Egypt’s dominance in the Red Sea and its influence in the Nile Basin through the GERD. Moreover, the move by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to sign a Memorandum of Understanding with the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, granting access to a 20-kilometer area in the port of Berbera for 50 years, in exchange for recognition and a share of the Ethiopian Airlines, drew angry reactions from neighboring countries, including Egypt and European nations as well as the United States.
The conflict further escalated with Egypt vehemently rejecting the agreement for several reasons, including the failure of negotiations regarding the GERD, Ethiopia’s pursuit of a footprint in the Red Sea, and the strategic importance of the Red Sea to Egypt’s national security.
Facing a historic opportunity, Egypt is aiming to form a regional alliance with neighboring countries to counter Ethiopian influence in the region, leveraging the prevailing discontent over the recent agreement and the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s actions. Egypt’s initial move to undermine the alliance formed between Ethiopia, Somaliland, and Eritrea in 2018 to maintain regional security and economic development signifies its determination to challenge Ethiopian dominance in the region.
The reaction from Egypt is particularly significant, especially following the recent visit of the Somali President, where President Sisi emphasized Egypt’s commitment to the security of Somalia and vowed to oppose any threats to Somalia or its security. Egypt is attempting to exploit recent developments to establish an alliance with Somalia, Eritrea, and potentially Djibouti, leveraging the opportunity to counter Ethiopian dominance.
Furthermore, with strained relations between Sudan and Ethiopia, Egypt could potentially ally with South Sudan and further consolidate its influence in the region. This proposed Egyptian alliance is contingent upon a well-thought-out Egyptian plan that aims to address potential disputes among the alliance members and considering the strength of incentives. It also considers the presence of preexisting economic, trade, and security agreements between these countries and Ethiopia, while navigating probable Ethiopian reactions to these Egyptian maneuvers.
Overall, Egypt is taking decisive steps to shape regional geopolitics by leveraging strategic partnerships, potentially reshaping the balance of power in the Horn of Africa, and safeguarding its interests in the region.
