French magazine "Le Point" reported that the latest round of negotiations between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt concluded on December 19th without finding common ground, as the deadline for completing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) by 2025 draws closer.
The magazine, in a report by Augustin Basillic, explained that Egypt and Sudan, which the Blue Nile traverses on its way to the Mediterranean Sea, seek an agreement compelling Addis Ababa to respect certain conditions for filling the dam's reservoir and operating it.
This follows Ethiopia's withdrawal from the 1929 treaty granting Cairo the right to veto water projects in neighboring British colonies, and the 1959 agreement that allocates 87% of the river's waters to Egypt and Sudan.
Reciprocal Accusations
An Egyptian press release decried the "failure of the meeting due to Ethiopia's continuous refusal to accept any technical or legal compromise that would preserve the interests of the three countries."
The statement added that "Egypt made efforts and cooperated effectively with the two neighboring countries to solve the main differences and reach a friendly agreement," only for Ethiopia to respond that "Egypt retained a colonial-era mindset and erected barriers to the efforts of rapprochement."
The main concern for Cairo is that GERD officials might cut water flow during drought periods. Sudanese, as the writer notes, share the same concern despite their moderate comments. A source close to the Ethiopian side of the negotiations states that "this is an existential issue for the Egyptian people as this is their only water source."
A Sudanese negotiator warns that "the dam's large storage capacity could seriously affect both countries along the river's course."
Sudan, where the Blue and White Niles meet, would be the most affected as regulating river flow would prevent seasonal flooding and the dam would trap sediments, depriving farmers of natural fertilizers, according to this negotiator.
The ecological system's balance is likely to be disrupted, despite attempts to mitigate the harmful consequences on the environment, such as "clearing forests from areas that will be submerged to prevent the decomposing vegetation from emitting methane gases," says Mekdelawit Messay, a Nile affairs expert.
Politicization of the Dam
The Le Point report points out that turning back is no longer possible as the project nears completion, with the remaining 11 of 13 turbines to be installed, aiming for operational status by 2025.
Independent researcher Anna Elisa Cascão asserts that even without an agreement, "the GERD issue can be considered as settled."
Although, as the researcher states, Egypt wants to ensure that Addis Ababa does not build more dams on the Blue Nile, the absence of an agreement means nothing prevents Ethiopia from doing so. However, reaching a compromise would facilitate international investments needed by the three countries to support national and joint projects that could arise thanks to the dam.
Gushaw E. Aferam, who oversees African affairs at the Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Institute, believes the politicization of the GERD poses the main obstacle to finding common ground. Addis Ababa sees the dam not only as a means of generating hydropower but also as reclaiming its past glory. Egypt has built its identity around the Nile, while Sudan, embroiled in a conflict between the military and the Rapid Support Forces militia, does not have a legitimate government to sign an international agreement.
