French academic and Professor Jean-Pierre Filiu believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who are both counting on the return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House, will do everything in their power to prolong the war in Gaza, which he asserts could have catastrophic effects on the European Union, whether in its relationship with the Middle East or in Ukraine.
Filiu points out a concern that the habituation to the war in Gaza has occurred more quickly than to the conflict in Ukraine, despite the predominance of military losses in Ukraine. In contrast, Gaza is on the verge of surpassing the threshold of 1% of its population being killed, which is comparable to 650,000 French citizens, including 250,000 children, along with millions of wounded, orphans, disfigured, and those suffering from psychological trauma.
In his column for Le Monde, however, the Professor states there is no end in sight for this tragedy because Netanyahu has a significant interest in extending the duration of the war, especially with the possibility of Trump being re-elected.
Netanyahu is not only gambling on his political survival but also on ensuring he retains immunity as head of the government, steering clear of the legal proceedings that have been ongoing against him since 2019 for corruption, fraud, and breach of trust, which could see him imprisoned.
A Dual Gamble
For this reason, Filiu, an expert in Middle Eastern affairs, explains that Netanyahu has set a rhetorical rather than military goal for his army: the "elimination" of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas). For Netanyahu, the continuation of hostilities has become an objective in itself, not just to hold onto power but also to weaken U.S. President Joe Biden, hoping for Trump's return, who provided him with unconditional support during his term.
Netanyahu is not alone in such calculations; Putin is also convinced that Trump's re-election will guarantee him victory over Ukraine, making him the greatest benefactor of the war in Gaza after Western democracies have demonstrated their inability to defend the principles of law in the Middle East that they claimed to uphold in support of Ukraine, a blatant embodiment of "double standards."
With increasing chances of Russian success in Ukraine for every day the war in Gaza is prolonged, Filiu believes it's time for Europe to marshal its strength to avoid such a disastrous scenario and to mobilize for a permanent resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with the same energy it devoted to supporting Ukraine in 2022.
Filiu concludes that the costs of Europe marginalizing itself amidst the ongoing crisis in the Middle East could be steep, signifying the necessity for the European Union to harness its short and medium-term policies to achieve the "strategic goal" it set for itself: the two-state solution.
This requires, according to Filiu, a reassessment of all forms of cooperation with Israel and the suspension of any project that directly or indirectly reinforces settlements in the occupied territories in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.
Finally, the European Union should not be content with merely being the financier for the reconstruction of destroyed areas in Gaza—a role assigned by the United States and Israel to absolve themselves of responsibility for such a disaster. Instead, it's imperative that the fate of Europe in 2024 will be decided in Gaza, as per Filiu's analysis.
