The establishment of Israel was marked by an unrelenting campaign to displace Palestinians and draw defensible borders. However, the world has changed, and both Israel and its Western allies refuse to understand that this type of violence will incur immense costs for them. They are left with two options: either comply with international law, which they claim to embody, or deny this right altogether. Both outcomes would have catastrophic consequences on their legitimacy and interests.
This paragraph encapsulates the findings of the researcher Peter Harling, founder of the Synaps research center in Beirut. In an interview with “Mediapart,” Harling discusses the risks of the Israeli war on Gaza spilling over to other regions and its severe implications for Israel’s and its backers’ legitimacy.
Joseph Confavreux began the interview by asking: What do we call what is happening before our eyes in Gaza? Responding, Harling—who has extensive experience in the Arab world—said the whole problem with this war is that it conflates various registers. It is a war against terrorism, collective revenge, a clash of civilizations, a humanitarian crisis, and the temptations of genocide, allowing each individual to interpret it in their own way, thus permitting all kinds of excesses.
Ironically, Harling notes, we are witnessing an old, familiar conflict relatively easy to define: a land dispute between parties of unequal strength. The “rounds” of this conflict have changed little over time, effectively burying the peace process and making the quest for a viable solution less significant.
Gaza Precedent
The writer agrees that this age-old conflict has been reshaped through the lens of the war on terror, often seen as the easy way out, especially since “terrorism” can describe acts of violence mainly aimed at terrorizing or demoralizing the opponent or prompting reciprocal crimes. However, this notion applies to many military actions not exclusively associated with “terrorist groups.”
When asked whether we are in the final stage, the expert predicts Gaza will remain a deep wound in the heart of the Mediterranean. It’s hard to imagine solving the humanitarian crisis without reconstructing the area extensively damaged at this point. Any reconstruction implies a governing formula acceptable to Israel; otherwise, we can expect endless occupations, guerrilla warfare, relentless security measures, unending negotiations, and possibly further settlements.
Gaza might also set a precedent likely to be reproduced by Israel someday in Lebanon and the West Bank, based on the international consequences of its comprehensive bombing strategy. If it remains cost-effective for Israel, the same scenario will likely be repeated.
Regarding the extension of the war to the Middle East, Harling considers the likelihood of a “regional inferno” to be exaggerated. The primary escalation risk at this stage relates to Lebanon, where Hezbollah has long prepared for a decisive war with Israel, but does not wish to initiate it under the current circumstances.
Arab and Western Positions
The researcher summarizes the stance of Arab governments as disinterested in the Palestinian cause, much like most governments in the West. To them, the issue is a lost cause and a vestige of the past, diverting attention from more practical and positive priorities. The US administration is betting on this indifference to resume the normalization process between Israel and Saudi Arabia after the Gaza conflict.
Since the suffering of Palestinians only mobilizes Arab public opinion during crises, Arab governments can afford to wait for emotions to subside with mere rhetorical stances. Yet, the real question, according to Harling, is “Will Israel’s position change in this war?” A change is not impossible if atrocities continue.
Asked about President Joe Biden’s support for Israel potentially costing him in upcoming elections, Harling places the issue within a broader spectrum of what he describes as hysterical behaviors, such as Britain’s deportation of migrants to Rwanda, EU funding of Libyan militias torturing and extorting populations, Europe’s weariness of the war in Ukraine, and German institutions condemning Jews critical of some Israeli policies—an indication of the absence of a genuine political structure.
In a lecture, Harling deemed the Middle East to be “our immediate neighbor in the Mediterranean region, representing the true crucible of our identity, with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict being an integral part of our European history and, thus, its course inevitably resonates strongly within our societies.”
But the Middle East is also seen by Western governments as a foreign area often understood through two opposing perceptions that obscure its reality. One is dark, viewing it as plagued by unresolvable conflicts best contained or ignored. The other is overly optimistic as a place of hope, progress, innovation, finance, investment, profits, youth, sports, energy, and perfect integration with globalization, as seen in Dubai, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia’s solar infrastructure projects, and Moroccan avocado fields.
The Middle East that truly matters, as Harling points out, is the one where half a billion neighbors, overwhelmed by circumstances, reside—a region where we must explore our connections and commonalities, especially since the Arab world is filled with dynamics we also know in Europe, sharing ambitions with its societies.
