Tehran – Iran's announcement of the detention of an "oil tanker" in Gulf waters isn’t a novel occurrence. However, last Thursday, Iran escalated matters by seizing an "American oil tanker" in the Sea of Oman. This was a retaliatory action following Washington's apprehension of the same vessel and confiscation of its Iranian oil cargo last year. The Iranian statement clarified that this operation was conducted to settle scores with Washington, justifying it by claiming "the detained tanker had previously stolen an oil cargo owned by Iran under the direction of the United States." In response, the United States, in cooperation with the United Kingdom, launched airstrikes against Houthi group targets allied with the Islamic Republic in the early hours of Friday. These Anglo-American strikes followed Houthi attacks on ships heading to Israel through the Red Sea, including American and British vessels. Iranian observers described this as part of the Western countries' effort to settle scores with the Yemeni group. 
A former Iranian diplomat told Al Jazeera Net that those participating in strikes within Yemen's depth might risk endangering their interests (Reuters). ## Detention of Tankers Iranian circles consensus is that the Middle East is heading towards more tension, which threatens to spiral out of control. However, opinions vary in interpreting the objectives of the main players in the Red Sea and the consequences of their behavior in the next phase. Professor of International Relations at Tehran University, Mohsen Jalilvand, views the detention of the American oil tanker within the context of Tehran's efforts to establish the principle of "an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth" in its dealings with major powers to ensure the national interests of the Islamic Republic. In conversation with Al Jazeera Net, Jalilvand believes that the United States quickly shifted attention from the detention of its tanker in the Sea of Oman to the Red Sea, by creating a new hotspot in targeting Yemen. He explained that Tehran successfully distanced itself from accusations of maritime piracy by assigning the task to the Iranian Army forces instead of the Revolutionary Guard, which is listed on the American terrorism list. ## Series of Mistakes Jalilvand continued that multiple parties have committed strategic errors in the region; from the American tanker that approached Iranian waters despite awareness of Tehran's plans to retaliate and recover its confiscated oil, to Russia's endorsement last Thursday of the UN resolution condemning Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, followed by the Houthis mistakenly targeting a ship carrying Russian oil off Yemen's coast. Former Iranian Ambassador to Libya, Jafar Ghanadbashi, views that the United States and Britain made a "strategic mistake" by opting for the security and military approach in the Red Sea instead of addressing the main cause of tension near the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Ghanadbashi mentioned that the Houthi group "did not threaten maritime navigation but seeks to pressure the Zionist entity" by targeting ships en route to it, in an attempt to break the siege and facilitate the entry of food and medicine to Gaza Strip, describing the Anglo-American assault on Yemen as "indicative of their participation in the extermination of the people of Gaza." ## Common Denominator Ghanadbashi concluded that the American alliance in the Red Sea "misjudged the situation in Yemen and proved it does not understand the significance of the Yemeni dagger, which is drawn from its sheath to support the oppressed," emphasizing that attacks on Yemen will not stop the Houthis from targeting ships headed to Israel, plus risking the participants' interests in bombing Yemen's depths. The former Iranian diplomat noted that "the Western-Zionist axis" is quick to blame Iran for every minor and major event in the region, whether in Gaza, Iraq, or Yemen. He described Iran's support for the "Axis of Resistance" as a common denominator in the Western and Zionist accusations against Tehran, indicating the effectiveness of Tehran's policy in countering Western arrogance. According to Reuters news agency, a senior American official stated that Iran bears "responsibility for the role it plays in the attacks against American forces," adding, "We believe Iran is involved at every stage of the Houthi attacks". ## Global System Conversely, the Head of "Simorgh Baryek" Institute for Future Studies, Mehdi Matther Nia, reads the Red Sea developments in the context of the United States policy aimed at reshaping a new global order in the 21st century, emphasizing the significance of the region extending from the Gulf waters through the Strait of Hormuz to Bab al-Mandab and the Gulf of Aden, due to its geostrategic location and not merely for its energy resources. Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Matthernia likens "certain behaviors of the Resistance Axis at present as if they are setting up an excellent play for the American striker to score according to his grand strategies," which the British policy has seized to line up alongside American power after London's previous reluctance to join Washington in its 2003 invasion of Iraq. He argued that the United States and its allies seek control over strategic straits to ensure energy flows and regulate international trade according to Washington’s plans for the new global system. 
## Future of the Region The President of the Simorgh Baryek Institute for Future Studies concluded that the region is heading towards more tension in the upcoming period. He posits that the primary players currently have control over the tension, yet he fears things may escalate if some parties misjudge the gravity of the current developments. In this context, Professor of International Relations at Tehran University, Mohsen Jalilvand, anticipates a comprehensive change in the Middle East's political system following the current Gaza conflict and its impact on the balance of power, asserting that Tehran’s options to handle the escalation in the Red Sea would be limited to a few winning cards, should things spiral out of control. These cards include managing challenges beyond Iran's borders by directing allies in the Resistance Axis, a strategy that has been in place for decades, but Western powers are keenly attempting to neutralize these options to compel Tehran either to sit at the negotiation table or push it towards direct confrontation. Jalilvand predicts that wisdom in the vicinity will prevent the current developments from becoming an intractable crisis. However, he cautions that all previous wars erupted due to miscalculations, leaving the possibilities for the current developments to trigger a regional or global war wide open.
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