The Foreign Affairs magazine has warned that the Israeli army’s plan to withdraw thousands of its soldiers from Gaza, instead of signaling an end to the fighting, may lead to a new phase of conflict. The magazine, in an article written by Colin P. Clarke, explained that the counterinsurgency approach relies on special operations forces, precision strikes, and targeted airstrikes, with the Israeli army retaining territories after clearing them of fighters from the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), following the advice of retired US General David Petraeus, the former director of the Central Intelligence Agency.
However, the writer pointed out that research on previous counterinsurgency campaigns suggests that such an approach in Gaza could result in a protracted quagmire, allowing Hamas to adapt by relying on its underground tunnel network and using the devastated infrastructure to target Israeli foot patrols. The implementation of Petraeus’ vision for counterinsurgency in Gaza, according to the writer, would be a disaster for the Israeli army, potentially resulting in an endless war rather than ending the violence.
Regarding the political objectives, the Israeli leadership indicated that the war against Hamas would not end until Israel achieves all its goals. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the war on Hamas would continue until Israel achieves all of its objectives, while Defense Minister Yoav Gallant emphasized that the military campaign would continue as long as necessary. Furthermore, Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army Aviv Kochavi indicated that the war in Gaza would continue for “several months,” but if Israel adopts the counterinsurgency approach, the months might easily turn into years.
The writer warned that if the Israeli army adopts the counterinsurgency approach in Gaza, it would directly contradict the political recommendations of the Biden administration, which warned against the occupation of Gaza. Furthermore, this approach may lead to a prolonged war with Hamas, with the writer suggesting that Israel’s lack of a specific political strategy for after the war could ultimately lead to an indefinite conflict.
It appears that Israel has no intention of winning “hearts and minds,” and the writer pointed out that Israeli policymakers, especially Netanyahu and his extreme right-wing allies, are ignoring the political aspects of the conflict. The writer concluded by stating that should Israel adopt this strategy, it should prepare for a long-term war, as historical data shows that counterinsurgency efforts, particularly with a state sponsor, have an average duration of 10 years.
In conclusion, the article emphasizes the risks and potential consequences of adopting Petraeus’ approach, cautioning against a lengthy conflict with uncertain outcomes if Israel pursues the counterinsurgency strategy in Gaza.
Keywords:
Gaza, Israel, Hamas, Counterinsurgency, David Petraeus, Foreign Affairs, Benjamin Netanyahu
