Beirut, Lebanon – The Palestinian group Hamas's recent call for recruitment in Lebanon was met with criticism from several Lebanese political parties and officials on December 4. Accusations were thrown at Hamas for violating Lebanon’s national sovereignty, reigniting painful memories of the nation's historical internal strife.
Yet, the establishment of a parallel armed force by Hamas may incidentally align with Hezbollah's interests, suggest some analysts. Notably, Hezbollah, which wields significant military control, especially in southern Lebanon, is believed to be indirectly benefitted by these recruitment efforts conducted in Palestinian refugee camps and local mosques.
"Hezbollah is trying to enlist the support of Sunni groups [like Hamas in Lebanon] in its fight against Israel from southern Lebanon," explained Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut. However, due to Hezbollah's tight grip on border affairs, other groups are unlikely to operate independently.
Following Hamas's attacks in southern Israel on October 7, which resulted in 1,200 civilian and military casualties according to Israeli officials, Israel has relentlessly bombarded Gaza, pausing briefly only at the end of November. The Health Ministry in Gaza reports that over 18,000 people there have been killed.
Concurrently, Lebanon has seen over a hundred fatalities since Hezbollah launched missile strikes on Israel starting October 8. Most casualties have been Hezbollah combatants, who assert their actions are to prevent Israel's military might from being fully unleashed on Hamas.
The ‘Axis of Resistance’ in Lebanon
Post the Syrian civil war, which estranged Hamas and Hezbollah due to diverging stances on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, relations have thawed in recent years. Leaders from Hamas have gradually re-established their presence in Lebanon since 2017, among them Saleh al-Arouri, Khalil al-Hayya, and Zaher Jabarin.
In the previous year, Hamas leaders disclosed the existence of a collaborative "security room" within the "Axis of Resistance," a coalition with Iranian ties, including both Hamas and Hezbollah. This alliance could have implications for Lebanon’s security landscape. April 2023 saw a visit to Beirut by Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh for talks with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, hinting at coordinated agendas.
Analysts suggest that Hamas's expansion in Lebanon is presumably coordinated with Hezbollah, which has long been the dominant force in the south. Israeli officials, however, have expressed increasingly zero tolerance for Hezbollah's presence, particularly its elite al-Radwan unit, along the northern borders of Israel. Thus, Hamas's increased activity could reflect a strategic collusion, offering Hezbollah potential tactical advantages.
"Hezbollah is searching for local allies in the post-war period because its military component will come into question as Israel wants it out of the south Litani," stated Khashan, referencing the area demilitarized by UN Security Council Resolution 1701 post the 2006 conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.
Moreover, while Hamas's siege in Gaza continues, its growing popularity in the West Bank may be contributing to its expansive strategy in Lebanon, potentially challenging political rival Fatah for influence.
"Hamas can say we strengthened our political position everywhere we exist", noted Drew Mikhael, who studies Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. "No political actor or party doesn’t want more power."
A return to ‘Fatahland’
The prospect of "Hamas-land" has reignited concerns, particularly among Lebanese Christians, reminiscent of the "Fatahland" when Yasser Arafat's PLO was effectively a state within a state in southern Lebanon. This era had seen the PLO actively participating in Lebanon's hostile and fragmentary civil war.
Gebran Bassil of the Free Patriotic Movement, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Samir Geagea of the Lebanese Forces party, Ashraf Rifi, and Samy Gemayel of the Kataeb party are among the officials who have staunchly rejected Hamas's move, citing it as a breach of national sovereignty.
‘Complete Christian marginalisation’
Amid this regional strife, Lebanon's Christian leaders might be utilizing Hamas's announcement to bolster their standing in internal Lebanese sectarian dynamics, say observers.
"These recent political maneuvers reveal Christian disengagement with broader national politics, focusing instead on sectarian interests and internal Lebanese state issues," Michael Young from the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut tells Al Jazeera, emphasizing a shift towards a more narrow, parochial viewpoint in Christian political circles.
This analysis reflects the current political landscape in Lebanon, where internal rivalries intersect with larger regional issues in a delicate, often precarious balance.
