Beirut, Lebanon – Despite facing attacks from the United States and the United Kingdom following their targeting of Israel-connected ships in the Red Sea, Yemen’s Houthis remain undeterred and might even be further emboldened, analysts indicate.
The US and the UK conducted bombings on multiple sites in Yemen that Washington identified as Houthi facilities on Thursday night. This represents the first time either the US or its allies have launched attacks on Yemeni soil during the ongoing conflict. These bombings were in retaliation to the downing of missiles the Yemeni group fired in the Red Sea the day prior.
Experts suggest that the Houthis could benefit from an increased regional and domestic profile, as they attract attention from the globe's most powerful nation despite not being internationally recognized as Yemen’s government, although they control significant parts of the country.
On January 10, the Houthi’s largest operation against Red Sea traffic was thwarted by the US and the UK as they repelled 21 drones and missiles. The United Nations Security Council, which consists of the most powerful nations globally, focused on these attacks in a resolution that condemned the Houthis, yet also acknowledged their escalating influence as a force to be reckoned with.
Abdulghani al-Iryani, a senior researcher with the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, asserted to Al Jazeera, “The Houthis actually won that confrontation the day they started it.”
Within Yemen, Ansar Allah – officially named Houthi group – controls the west, including the Bab al-Mandeb strait that leads into the Red Sea, and is engaged in conflict over territory with Yemen's internationally recognized government and local allies. Their actions in the Red Sea and their supportive rhetoric towards the people of Gaza have significantly bolstered their popularity among Yemenis. This popular support has led to them organizing massive rallies advocating for Palestinian people.
The Houthis assert their interception of ships bound for Israel or Israeli-owned vessels crossing through the Bab al-Mandeb strait is a tactic to pressure Israel into allowing sufficient humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. Gaza has been heavily bombarded by Israel for the last three months following an October 7 assault by Hamas and other Palestinian armed factions. This campaign has led to over 23,000 deaths, predominantly civilians, some directly from bombings, others due to the extreme conditions caused by the Israeli actions.
This group garnered international attention on November 19 when they commandeered the Galaxy Leader cargo ship, subsequently turning it into a tourist site.
Although global shipping has suffered due to these actions, with major companies avoiding the Red Sea route, Houthi interceptions generally caused minor damages to ships and have not claimed lives or caused injuries on board.
On December 31, when Houthi vessels tried commandeering a ship transiting the Red Sea, they were met with US Navy helicopters, which resulted in the death of 10 Houthi fighters and the sinking of three boats.
In early January, Houthis started using unmanned surface vessels, having previously employed similar boats as explosive drone boats. Despite their tactical changes, they have not ceased their activities in the Red Sea. Analysts suggest that on one hand, their declared goals remain unmet and on the other hand, they do not hold fear towards US threats.
Eleonora Ardemagni, a senior associate research fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, commented to Al Jazeera, “The Red Sea front has escalated to a direct clash between the Houthis and the US. Both are testing the impact of their actions and how far they are willing to push.”
The United States and its allies last week issued an ultimatum for the Houthis to halt their operations in the Red Sea or face military response. In defiance, the Houthis hosted a massive rally in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, where their leaders delivered bold speeches showing readiness for any US escalation.
Al-Iryani echoed a sentiment regarding the ongoing conflict, begun by the Saudi-led coalition in 2015 after the Houthis overthrew President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, stating, “Everything that was worth striking has been struck by the Saudi coalition in the past nine years.” He voiced doubt that US attacks on Houthi targets would act as a deterrent.
Raiman al-Hamdani, a researcher at the ARK Group and former visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera, "[The Houthis] would probably welcome [US attacks], as their rhetoric often points to the United States and Israel as the sources of Yemen and the Middle East's problems."
Strategically, the Houthis may find themselves in a comfortable position. Their mobile infrastructure complicates targeting for American forces, as pointed out by Al-Iryani.
In the meantime, the Houthis are engaging in discussions with neighboring Saudi Arabia regarding a long-term ceasefire, potentially seeking to fortify their position through displays of power in the Red Sea.
Saudi Arabia, concerned about the instability this conflict causes next door and its implications – particularly as past Houthi attacks have severely affected Saudi oil infrastructure – has urged the US to practice restraint, a stance reiterated after the recent bombings.
Long-term, it may be beneficial for the Saudis to establish relations with the Houthis, potentially leading to recognition. This formal recognition could be key for the Houthis, who aim to further solidify their power over Yemen.
The Houthis, currently allied with Iran within the regional Axis of Resistance that includes Hamas and Hezbollah, have a relationship with Iran considered by many analysts to parallel the bond Iran shares with Hezbollah. Yemen researcher Nicholas Brumfield highlighted this to Al Jazeera.
However, it’s argued that the Houthis should not be merely seen as an Iranian proxy. Looking ahead, the group might recalibrate regional alliances. Al-Hamdani posits that being nearer to the Saudis – with financial benefits outweighing the supply of Iranian weapons – could be more advantageous.
Despite their identity as a Shia group, the Houthis may not automatically fall under Iranian sway. The longstanding cultural and historical connections between Yemen and Saudi Arabia could hold considerable sway in this relationship.
