In the 2018 Turkish presidential election, the global public was introduced to Meral Aksener, who, despite being well-known domestically, emerged as one of the main challengers to Erdogan. She had just recently established her new party, the Good Party, following a split from the Nationalist Movement Party in October 2017.
Dubbed "the Iron Lady" by international media, there were hopes that she would succeed in dislodging Erdogan from Turkey's leadership. However, she disappointed many by only securing around 7% of the vote.
Despite the setback, Aksener retained her party leadership and kept a prominent place in the Turkish political scene. Possessing considerable political experience, she has managed to remain a constant and forward-moving focus of the Turkish public's interests. Her strong and tenacious personality has been noted, but so has her tendency to miscalculate politically, often emerging from her battles worse for wear.
Last March, Aksener abruptly withdrew from the 'Table of Six' coalition, objecting to the candidacy of Kemal Kilicdaroglu—then leader of the Republican People's Party—for the presidency. She criticized the coalition for no longer representing the people's will and attempted to convince either the mayors of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, or Ankara, Mansur Yavas, to run instead, but both declined. Shortly after, Aksener returned to the coalition, but the incident left a negative impression on the public that Erdogan later capitalized upon.
Now, history appears to be repeating itself in a different form, with a new battle unfolding between Aksener and Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, whom she once considered as a "brother." This confrontation has erupted amid a rift in the alliance between her party and the Republican People's Party, her recent close allies.
Declaration of War
Speaking bluntly, Meral Aksener said she views Imamoglu's actions as a "declaration of war" and that she is ready for it.
The conflict arose when the Good Party decided to run independently in the local elections instead of as part of the 'Nation Alliance' that they had formed with the Republican People's Party and other political groups.
Aksener declared, "We will enter the elections on our own, and we will compete alone everywhere, including Istanbul and Ankara."
However, not all party leaders agreed with this decision. Ibrahim Ozkan, the deputy leader of the Good Party group in the Istanbul Municipal Council, resigned in protest, believing at least the alliance should continue in Istanbul and Ankara to prevent them from returning to the rule of the Justice and Development Party (AKP).
In a twist, Ozkan was reelected, prompting the party to refer his supporters to the disciplinary board. This resulted in their resignation from the party.
Aksener accuses Imamoglu of prompting these resignations, describing it as both a "declaration of war" and "intervention in the party's internal affairs."
Aksener reminded the public that it was she who attempted to persuade Imamoglu and Yavas to run for the presidency instead of Kilicdaroglu, but they were "afraid and did not accept what the nation wanted."
Imamoglu quickly dismissed the situation as a "new game," claiming that "some friends are being deceived, and sometimes they may make statements that are beyond their limits."
Fractures and Weaknesses
The fragility and weakening of Turkish political parties are characteristics of the broader partisan landscape, with parties that once dominated the political scene now struggling significantly. For example, the Motherland Party was long successful under Turgut Ozal, and the True Path Party under the leadership of Suleyman Demirel and then Tansu Ciller, the first female Prime Minister of Turkey. The Democratic Left Party also faced this fate under Bulent Ecevit.
Some might be attempting to push Aksener and her party towards the precipice, either to retract their decision to run independently in municipal elections or to face further divides potentially leading to the party's disintegration or Aksener's resignation. This is not the first time she has caused a crisis within the 'Nation Alliance,' having previously withdrawn from the 'Table of Six.'
Considering this, Ekrem Imamoglu has a vested interest in maintaining the alliance, with or without Aksener but with the Good Party, not only for the municipal elections but also for the presidential elections of 2028, post-Erdogan after his constitutional term limits have been reached. Imamoglu hopes these elections could pave his way to the presidential complex.
Allies' Rifts
The contentious relationship between Aksener and Imamoglu could well remain inconsequential unless the Justice and Development Party capitalizes on it and turns it into electoral gains, particularly in Istanbul and Ankara.
However, the AKP faces genuine challenges in these cities, including selecting candidates with popular approval, accounting for each city's unique attributes, engaging with the Kurdish electorate in Istanbul, and respecting the national identity prevalent among Ankara's residents. Importantly, the AKP must focus on the youth demographic, an area where Imamoglu has thus far demonstrated adept engagement.
A critical question remains: Will Erdogan seek to incorporate the Good Party into the "People's Alliance" led by his party?
Erdogan has previously invited Aksener to join the alliance and reportedly has attempted to persuade his ally, Devlet Bahceli, of this strategy, yet Aksener refused. Is it possible that this discussion could be revisited?
In Turkey, the dynamics of party life—be it through splintering or forming alliances—is as heated and intriguing as any election held there.
