Occupied Jerusalem – The escalation of tension and security in the occupied Palestinian territories has reached an unprecedented level, prompting warnings from the Israeli security apparatus about the potential outbreak of a third Intifada if the boiling situation in the West Bank is not contained, especially during the war on the Gaza Strip.
The warnings, conveyed by Israeli Army Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, carried messages to the political level and the Israeli government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu. It stressed the necessity to undertake measures to subdue the rising tension in the West Bank due to public anger stemming from the economic blockade and the restriction of Palestinians from working in Israel.
Senior Israeli military officers have repeatedly addressed the political level, the Prime Minister, cabinet ministers, and the security cabinet, in recent days, warning of a slippery slope in the West Bank that could lead to another front that Israel would have to deal with forcefully, as reported by Israel's Channel 12.
These cautions come amidst daily military operations carried out by the Israeli army across different West Bank regions since the "Al-Aqsa Storm" battle that started on October 7th, 2023. According to Channel 12's political affairs correspondent, Amir Bohbot, the sum of the warnings is that the West Bank is on the verge of exploding due to economic hardships, which could lead to a third Intifada.
The political affairs correspondent indicated that these warnings are shared by the army and all security agencies, including the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), particularly after Netanyahu's decision not to include the issue of permitting Palestinian workers from the West Bank to enter Israel in the political-security cabinet's voting, and the insistence of the Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, on his stance against transferring tax revenues (clearing funds) to the Palestinian Authority.
Escalating Tension
Israeli journalist Yoav Stern, who specializes in Arab and Palestinian affairs, clarified the meanings and implications regarding the Israeli security agencies' warnings of a third Intifada due to rising tensions in the West Bank. The region has seen a gradual escalation since the Gaza war, and thus, these warnings were directed at the political level to try to alleviate the state of tension.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Stern emphasized that these warnings are real and not merely theoretical assessments or hypotheses of the Israeli military institution, which cannot predict how things might evolve on the ground. The Israeli army does not rule out the scenario where the security tension evolves into a widespread confrontation leading to the outbreak of a third Intifada.
Despite the charged and tense atmosphere in the West Bank, which witnesses confrontations, armed clashes, and near-daily military operations, Stern does not foresee an event that would deviate from the current trajectory and ignite an Intifada, attributing this to what he called "restraint factors on both sides."
Stern noted that the Israeli side does not desire an escalation with the West Bank during the war, indicating that there's no Israeli will for a comprehensive confrontation with Palestinians, despite Israeli convictions about the need to remain alert and deploy reinforced army forces in the West Bank to confront Palestinian armed factions and prevent them from attacking military sites or Israeli settlements.
Yoav Stern: If an Intifada erupted in the West Bank, the Israeli response would be as it was in Gaza. (Al Jazeera)
Fears and Warnings
According to the Israeli analyst, despite the escalated security tension and clashes in an unprecedented state across the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority, along with many factions, is not interested in a comprehensive confrontation for fear that the West Bank's fate would be like the Gaza Strip's.
Stern does not rule out that the eruption of a third Intifada could lead to a scenario of complete destruction to the Palestinians, and that the Israeli reaction would be completely different from what is known previously, possibly causing displacement and killing tens of thousands of Palestinians. He believes that the cost of a comprehensive confrontation borne by Palestinians in the West Bank would be greater than the benefits and achievements obtained.
Nonetheless, Stern states, "Such matters, assessments, and scenarios do not rely on rational analysis but are merely an emotional and unexpected reaction to a specific event that could lead to an Intifada or comprehensive confrontation; thus, these security warnings stem from a fear of an incident that could inflame the West Bank."
Analyzing the security and military agencies' warnings of the dangers of a third armed Intifada in the West Bank and the calls for political leadership to take steps to contain the boiling situation, Israeli affairs researcher Antoine Shlhat explained that it reflects the Israeli fears of a comprehensive confrontation in the West Bank amidst the war on Gaza.
Talking to Al Jazeera Net, Shlhat believes the security establishment is serious in its warnings of the potential for an armed Intifada in the West Bank, currently experiencing heightened tension and a security boil since the Israeli war on Gaza, with its widespread massacres, humanitarian disaster, and rising number of martyrs.
The researcher on Israeli affairs pointed out that the West Bank has been in solidarity with Gaza, with daily confrontations and armed clashes in different regions and camps, even in the Palestinian countryside, which media may not highlight due to its focus on documenting events in Gaza and other fronts.
Despite this, Shlhat points out that "it's undeniable that the West Bank is on the brink of an eruption, as Palestinian armed groups have expanded their presence even before the war, exceeding the traditional factions' activities, and are being combated by Israel daily through confrontations and clashes."
Antoine Shlhat: The West Bank has joined Gaza, witnessing daily confrontations and armed clashes. (Al Jazeera)
Escalation and Confrontation
Regarding the seriousness of the security apparatus' warnings about the possible outbreak of a third Intifada, the researcher on Israeli affairs cited daily armed clashes, Israeli military operations, and escalating security tension throughout the West Bank regions, where armed resistance was previously limited to specific areas like Jenin, its camp, and the northern West Bank.
Shlhat attributes these warnings of a comprehensive confrontation in the West Bank, coinciding with the war on Gaza, to the presence of the most extreme right-wing government in Israel's history, from a religious and nationalistic standpoint, which wages war on Palestinians in the West Bank through apartheid policies, expanding the settlement project, and displacing Palestinians in rural areas and the Jordan Valley by confiscating their lands.
Based on these field realities and the policies of the occupation and settlers' practices against Palestinians, Shlhat states, "There has been a ferocious and brutal Israeli campaign on the West Bank since October 7th, with hundreds of martyrs killed by the army and settlers, in addition to the arrest of about 6,000 Palestinians. Therefore, the security establishment's warnings did not come from nowhere; the field realities may portend an imminent explosion of the boiling situation."
