China’s Potential for Starting a War Raises Concerns
The question of whether China is on the verge of engaging in warfare may be the most critical issue in international affairs today. If Beijing were to attack Taiwan or any other target in the Western Pacific, it could result in a war with the United States, pitting two nuclear-armed giants against each other for dominance.
According to a joint article by Michael Beckley, a political science professor at Tufts University, and Hal Brands, a global affairs professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, signs of the impending threat of a Chinese war remain despite recent diplomatic exchanges between Washington and Beijing.
How Concerning is it?
The writers highlight signs such as China’s display of ships, aircraft, and missiles in its largest military buildup in decades, stockpiling of fuel and food, and efforts to shield its economy from sanctions. They also note President Xi Jinping’s statements urging preparedness for “the worst-case scenarios” and readiness to endure severe challenges, including dangerous storms and turbulent waters.
The article cautions that all this comes at a time when Beijing is asserting itself more forcefully and occasionally belligerently towards its neighbors such as the Philippines, Japan, and India. Chinese officials have made periodic statements about their ability to strike Taiwan, lay siege to it, and potentially invade it, leading many US officials to believe that the risk of war is increasing. CIA Director William Burns also suggested that President Xi Jinping is seeking the capability to occupy Taiwan by 2027.
Some observers argue that China, having reached its zenith, may become aggressive to divert attention from internal problems or secure gains within reach. However, others argue that concerns about Chinese aggression are exaggerated, pointing out that a state that has not waged a catastrophic war for over four decades is unlikely to do so now.
The writers stress that such misplaced confidence is unwarranted because a state’s behavior is deeply shaped by its circumstances, and China’s circumstances are changing explosively. They suggest that several factors may have encouraged China’s peaceful rise in the past but may now incentivize a more belligerent turn.
Factors Encouraging Aggression
Firstly, the regional disputes in which China is involved have become less amenable to peaceful settlement than before. Secondly, shifts in military balances in Asia may be making Beijing unduly optimistic about the outcome of a war. The third factor is that China’s strategic and economic outlook has become darker despite military improvements. Lastly, Xi Jinping’s transformation of China into a “personalistic dictatorship” particularly prone to catastrophic miscalculations and costly wars, as argued by the writers.
This is not to say that China will invade Taiwan in a week, a month, or a particular year, as the timing of such an invasion is impossible to predict. Just as earthquakes, wars are similarly unpredictable, although we can identify the factors that contribute to their likelihood. Today, the writers assert, China’s risk indicators are flashing red.
At first glance, the likelihood of war between the United States and China may seem remote, given that Beijing has not engaged in a major war for 44 years. However, the absence of war does not equate to the absence of aggression; Beijing has utilized military and paramilitary capabilities to expand its control over the South and East China Seas and has also been involved in deadly clashes with India.
This potential conflict raises concerns about the stability and security of the Asia-Pacific region and has significant implications for global peace. The need for diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions and prevent an escalation of military confrontation in the region has become more urgent than ever.
