Occupied Jerusalem- The Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) has put the Israeli government in an awkward position with its initial positive response to the framework agreement issued from the “Paris Summit“; where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu bet on rejecting the agreement to continue evading in the negotiations for the prisoner exchange deal and ceasefire.
Hamas’s response has perplexed various Israeli security and military institutions and the political scene represented by the ruling coalition, which relied on a negative response from the movement to absolve itself of responsibility in front of the international community and maneuver in front of the families of the Israeli detainees.
The results of a poll conducted by the “Israeli Institute for Democracy” showed the validity of the claim that the two declared goals of the war summarized in eliminating Hamas and releasing the detainees are contradictory.
Divergence and Division
According to the poll, which included a sample of 619 individuals, the majority see the need to rearrange the priorities and goals of the war, where 51% of those surveyed believe that the return of the detainees should be the primary goal, while about a third and 36% of them from the far-right believe that the priority should be to defeat Hamas, and 13% answered that they do not know.
Amidst these variations in Israeli society, extremist right-wing parties represented by the “Religious Zionism” alliance led by Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and the “Jewish Power” party led by Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a partner in the government coalition, are obstacles to the emergency government and War Council and in the face of any attempt to penetrate its rejecting position for any exchange deal and ceasefire.
On the other hand, the opposition camp, led by the head of the “There is a Future” party, Yair Lapid, reiterated that the priority should be on freeing the detainees even if the price is painful and in exchange for a ceasefire, calling for the overthrow of Netanyahu’s government because of its failure to manage the issue of detainees and their release.
The positive response of Hamas to the “framework agreement,” as political analyst Akiva Eldar says, reveals the extent of differences in various Israeli systems regarding the release of detainees held by the resistance in Gaza. This brings back to the forefront the state of polarization and division within Israeli society that was prevalent prior to the “Al-Aqsa storm” on October 7, 2023.
Eldar explained to Al Jazeera Net that the aftermath of the division and differences in the positions of the Israeli political camps has had an impact on the military institution, which does not oppose completing a comprehensive exchange deal, and on the security and intelligence systems, which are considered a key player in the negotiations with mediators in Egypt, Qatar and America.
He pointed out that the military and security leaderships have been criticized by ministers in Netanyahu’s government and members of the right-wing in the Knesset, where they were demanded to bear responsibility for the failure to prevent Hamas’s sudden attack and resign.
The political analyst believes that all opinion polls, which lean towards the voices demanding the return of detainees regardless of the price Israel will pay, reflect the challenges facing Netanyahu even within the emergency government and the dilemma he faces in the broader political scene. If a comprehensive exchange deal is reached, it means there is no justification for the continuation of the war.
Dilemmas and Challenges
On the other hand, the spokesman for the “Peace Now” bloc, Adam Klaer, believes that Netanyahu, who previously enjoyed consensus in Israeli society in managing the war and the hostage file, and relied on opinion polls that consistently prioritized war over any deal, now faces internal dilemmas and challenges.
However, Klaer says, “As the war enters its fifth month without achieving its goals of freeing the hostages and eliminating Hamas, popular pressures calling for an exchange deal have escalated, even if the price is a ceasefire, turning the issue of the abductees into a fundamental demand for the Israeli public.”
He pointed out, in his conversation with Al Jazeera Net, that Netanyahu’s government will face many international pressures and may clash with the US President Joe Biden, who is preoccupied with the presidential elections and seeks an exchange deal and a truce leading to a political path with the Palestinians.
The spokesman for the “Peace Now” bloc believes that Netanyahu’s government, represented by far-right parties, will not relinquish the ruling coalition and will seek to maintain it because it is a struggle for Netanyahu’s survival in the Israeli political scene, as well as a cornerstone for the agenda and ideology of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir in advancing and controlling the reins of power in Israel.
He believes that Netanyahu’s government, which relies on the trust of 64 Knesset members and fluctuates between the options of war and exchange deal and the responsibility for failure, will not fall or disintegrate through parliamentary opposition, but through external international pressures, domestic movements, and Israeli public pressure.
Failure and Embarrassment
Under the title “Netanyahu’s plan to sacrifice the abductees,” journalist Uri Misgav, an activist against the far-right government, wrote, saying that “Israel has failed for 4 months in trying to release the abductees militarily, and it has become clear that military operations have killed some of them.”
Misgav adds: “Hamas has crafted a serious response and provided a reasonable plan in the current grim circumstances as a basis for negotiations, surely. This is a deal that a rational and responsible government must accept, but Hamas’s response has embarrassed Netanyahu’s government, which seems to continue to sacrifice the abductees.”
The Israeli writer explained that another deal to bring back the detainees or some of them is conditional on halting the fighting in Gaza temporarily or permanently. He said that suspending military operations temporarily would pave the way for the settler clerical radical base, a partner in Netanyahu’s coalition on which his fate and future political path rely.
He noted that the decision to sacrifice the abductees has led to a change in the declared goals of the war and that Netanyahu has stopped chanting the phrase “defeat Hamas and return the abductees,” and has moved on to “talk about complete victory,” adding that this goal has been vaguely formulated and is unachievable in reality to prevent reaching an agreement and prolong the duration of the fighting for Netanyahu’s personal interests.
