Israeli writer and analyst Yoni Ben-Menachem recently revealed plans by the Biden administration to train approximately 5,000 Palestinian security personnel. This force is intended to be deployed throughout the Gaza Strip with the aim of maintaining order following what he terms "the day after the war."
In an article published on the Israeli website Epoch titled "The Path to Disarmament in the Gaza Strip and the Creation of a Buffer Zone," Ben-Menachem argued that Israel must soon begin a disarmament process in Gaza. This coincides with ongoing combat operations in the southern part of the strip, an initiative he says has already begun informally.
Ben-Menachem explained that in the northern Gaza Strip areas occupied by the Israeli army, engineering units have started demolishing wells and tunnels, with 1,500 wells and dozens of kilometers of tunnels destroyed to date. However, he described the mission as difficult and lengthy, voicing uncertainty over the full extent of the tunnel network, which military forces have only begun to uncover.
The analyst spoke of the vast underground network—ranging from 500 to 1,000 kilometers—constructed by the Islamist resistance movement Hamas over the last 15 years under the watchful eyes of Israeli intelligence.
Ben-Menachem emphasized that disarming Gaza should be integral to the "day after" the war and should be a proactive step toward establishing a governance system in the strip other than Hamas's rule.
He noted that Israel would prohibit Palestinian residents, who were evacuated from northern Gaza, from returning to areas with un-destroyed tunnels. Such preemptive measures are viewed as serving residents seeking tranquility, as untouched tunnels could enable Hamas fighters to reutilize them, potentially leading to renewed Israeli military action.
Area "B"
On what he calls "the day after" the war, Ben-Menachem suggests Israel treat Gaza as an Area "B," similar to the West Bank, where Israel maintains comprehensive security control. This approach would allow Israel to respond immediately to any intelligence-driven threats.
Concurrently, he advocates for the creation of a two-kilometer deep buffer zone along the Gaza border, complete with minefields and surveillance measures to deter "terrorists" from infiltrating Israeli territory. He labels this zone a "kill zone," indicating that entry would effectively be akin to a death sentence by Israeli military fire.
He urged the Israeli military to withdraw to international borders rather than maintain a dense presence inside Gaza. He warns that retaining tens of thousands of soldiers within Gaza could lead to attrition warfare from remaining Hamas and Islamic Jihad elements, similar to past experiences in southern Lebanon, rendering Israeli soldiers vulnerable.
Aware of these risks, the Biden administration reportedly plans to train a special force of 5,000 Palestinian security forces affiliated with the Palestinian Authority. They will undergo counterterrorism training in Egypt and Jordan. Following the Israeli military's withdrawal from the Strip, these troops would spread throughout Gaza to enforce security.
According to the American plan, these forces would collaborate with the Israeli military, the United States, and what he refers to as moderate Arab states, drawing parallels with the special security force established by American General Keith Dayton in the West Bank in 2005 following the election of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
Ben-Menachem cited American sources stating that before Hamas's takeover of the Gaza Strip in 2007, the Palestinian Authority paid salaries to 19,000 security personnel in Gaza affiliated with the Fatah movement, suggesting a possible re-enlistment of a substantial number of them. Biden reportedly has no interest in ending the war in Gaza before an agreement regarding a new managerial entity for the strip is reached, aiming not to compromise Israeli security.
Underground Barrier
Israel, on its part, is also exploring effective means to prevent arms smuggling from Egypt into Gaza. Defense Minister Yoav Galant proposed to U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that the United States fund the construction of an underground barrier on Egypt's side of the Rafah border to thwart smuggling. However, Egyptian officials opposed this, citing various measures already taken to destroy all tunnels linking Egypt to Gaza, describing the Israeli proposal as politically motivated for a domestic audience.
In light of Egypt's opposition, Ben-Menachem believes Israel has no choice but to enforce the Philadelphia Corridor on the Palestinian side in Rafah to prevent weapons smuggling into Gaza.
He concluded that until these measures materialize, Gaza is likely to experience governmental and security chaos, as a new governance mechanism to replace Hamas is yet to be agreed upon. He noted that Palestinian Authority security forces have not undergone training for counterterrorism warfare.
Furthermore, the writer pointed out that Hamas threatens local elements, such as clan leaders and Fatah activists, to prevent their integration into the new government. He anticipates Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and the United States will face challenges from Hamas.
Ben-Menachem predicts that security disarray will prevail in the Gaza Strip over the next year. He advises that once Hamas is overthrown, Israel must establish reasonable defensive lines and create the buffer zone along the Gaza borders to prevent what he labels as "the resurgence of terrorist attacks against Israel."
